LSU vs. South Carolina is one of the most highly-anticipated games of the week in the SEC for Week 3. 

LSU still hasn’t played its A-game yet this year, losing narrowly to USC before beating Nicholls State in Week 2. South Carolina, meanwhile, is 2-0 after edging out Old Dominion in Week 1 and then smashing Kentucky 31-6 on the road in Week 2.

Both teams have clear strengths and weaknesses, making for a very interesting showdown in Columbia on Saturday.

Let’s breakdown some historical betting trends, advanced stats from Week 1 and some other useful info about these teams:

LSU vs. South Carolina betting lines

Lines via DraftKings:

Spread: LSU -7 (-110) | South Carolina +7 (-110)

Total: 49 points (over -112 | Under -108)

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Betting trends to know for LSU

LSU is…

  • 0-2 against the spread in 2024
  • 9-4 against the spread as a favorite of 7+ points under Brian Kelly
  • 3-5 against the spread in road games under Brian Kelly
  • 2-4 against the spread as a road favorite under Brian Kelly

Betting trends to know for South Carolina

South Carolina is…

  • 1-1 against the spread in 2024
  • 9-9 against the spread as an underdog of 7+ points under Shane Beamer
  • 10-9 against the spread as a home game under Shane Beamer
  • 4-5 against the spread as a home underdog under Shane Beamer

Advanced Stats preview 

Success rate will be the most important stat referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful” depending on the context:

  • 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
  • 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
  • 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage

Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.

Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:

Rushing success rate

  • LSU rushing offense success rate: 34.1% (112th)
  • South Carolina rushing defense success rate: 39.3% (72nd)

LSU’s rushing offense has struggled much more than expected in 2024. John Emery’s season-ending injury didn’t help, but the Tigers had a success rate of only 38% against Nicholls last week. That’s a pretty significant red flag — and points to larger issues that are happening within the offense. LSU could still be working through the kinks with new offensive coordinator Joe Sloan. Kaleb Jackson and Josh Williams have received the majority of the work since Emery went down, but neither has been particularly impressive to this point in the year. 

South Carolina’s run defense has been decent to this point in the year, but we’ll see what it looks like after a larger sample size. South Carolina’s pass defense is a strength (more on that later), so teams may end up trying to key in on the run game more. If that happens, it will be interesting to see how the Gamecocks respond. So far this season, South Carolina is the 51st percentile for EPA per rush defense, according to GameOnPaper.

  • South Carolina rushing offense success rate: 35.9% (105th)
  • LSU rushing defense success rate: 37.3% (59th)

South Carolina’s inability to move the ball was somewhat disguised by its 31-6 win over Kentucky last week. But make no mistake: this is one of the worst offenses in the SEC, if not the entire country. The Gamecocks run the ball over 66% of the time and yet have found very little success in staying in-front of the chains with that profile. They have a passing downs rate of more than 36%, which ranks outside the top 100 nationally. That’s what the performances have been like against Old Dominion and Kentucky offensively. 

LSU’s defense may slot in somewhere between the Monarchs and Wildcats in terms of overall strength. The Tigers haven’t been great on that side of the ball to start the year as new defensive coordinator Blake Baker tries to establish his identity. LSU has mostly been burned through the air, but it will be interesting to see if South Carolina tries to test the Tigers’ rush defense. LSU has been roughly around the national average in most advanced stats for rush defense — which is a significant improvement over what it has been against the pass.

Passing success rate

  • LSU passing offense success rate: 60.8% (6th)
  • South Carolina passing defense success rate: 30.8% (35th)

For casual fans, this is the matchup to watch out for — and it’s also the one that will likely determine who covers the spread in this game. Garrett Nussmeier has looked like a legit NFL prospect to this point in the year. Despite his relative inexperience, Nussmeier has been extremely effective so far this season. He has an 8-to-1 TD-to-INT ratio and, per PFF, is one of just four quarterbacks in the country (min. 75 drop backs) who has yet to be credited with a turnover-worthy play in 2024. 

However, South Carolina’s defense will be the biggest test yet for Nussmeier. The Gamecocks are 35th nationally in pass defense success rate, and a lot of that is due to their pass rush. South Carolina is 12th nationally with a havoc rate above 27% and is tied for 2nd amongst all SEC teams in tackles for loss with 19. True freshman Dylan Stewart looks like a future household name off the edge. Per PFF, he’s already earned 9 pressures and 3 sacks in just 35 pass rush snaps so far this year. How Stewart matches up with LSU’s elite offensive line play will be fascinating to watch.

  • South Carolina passing offense success rate: 32.5% (121st)
  • LSU passing defense success rate: 66% (134th)

While the other matchup on this side of the ball will be interesting in a good way, this will be more like a slow-motion car crash that you can’t quite look away from. South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers is young and inexperienced, so progress overtime could certainly come. But for now, this is a Gamecocks offense that has shown really no ability to move the ball whatsoever through the air. Sellers has an EPA per drop-back of -0.14, which ranks 105th nationally per GameOnPaper. And as mentioned earlier, the Gamecocks only throw it about 34% of the time — so it may not be a huge factor in the outcome of this game anyways. 

On the other hand, LSU enters this matchup literally dead last in pass defense success rate at 66%. That is beyond abysmal. LSU’s 2 most-used cornerbacks this season, Ashton Stamps and Sage Ryan, have both gotten absolutely picked apart. Per PFF, the duo has combined to allow 12 catches for 169 yards on 15 targets. This is a massive weakness that you’d expect most SEC teams to be able to exploit to great return — but it’s unclear if South Carolina is equipped to do so.

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1 other key: Can LSU block South Carolina?

Whether or not LSU can block South Carolina is the single most important factor for the outcome of this game. 

While South Carolina’s secondary has produced some good results this season in the early going, a lot of that has to do with its pass rush. Stewart has been revelation off the edge, but he’s not the only one. Kyle Kennard has 4.5 tackles for loss already this season. Deebo Williams and Bam Martin-Scott have 2 each as well. This has been one of the best havoc-creating fronts in all of college football through 2 weeks.

The question, which LSU may be about to answer, is will South Carolina’s secondary hold up if the Gamecocks aren’t producing a tremendous amount of pressure on the quarterback? Two cornerbacks have earned the vast majority of the snaps for South Carolina so far this season: O’Donnell Fortune and Judge Collier. Fortune has been excellent in both games, while Collier has earned a PFF coverage grade of just 62 across 53 snaps. For whatever reason, South Carolina hasn’t been burned by what PFF judges to be poor coverage — only 48 yards and 6 catches from 11 targets. But the idea that those opportunities are there should be worrying for South Carolina fans as this team prepares to face Nussmeier.

Nussmeier has been absolutely elite to start the season, albeit against USC and Nicholls State. The Tigers appear to have re-loaded at wide receiver as well, with Kyren Lacy (4 touchdowns already) leading the way in that regard. And perhaps most importantly, LSU has an excellent offensive line that features 2 future NFL tackles in Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. That duo has lived up to the hype so far in 2024 — LSU ranks 5th nationally in offensive havoc rate allowed through 2 weeks.

If LSU’s line plays to its potential on Saturday and neutralizes South Carolina’s pass rush, it’s hard to imagine the Gamecocks being able to do enough offensively to keep up in this matchup. But if South Carolina can generate pressure on Nussmeier to a degree he hasn’t seen yet, perhaps the crowd at Williams-Brice Stadium will be treated to a close game against an LSU team they haven’t beaten since 1994.

Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story exclude garbage-time statistics and are derived from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Trends are via BetIQ.