How many SEC QBs will throw for 3,000 yards in 2018? And who will they be?
There’s an old football saying, “If you have two quarterbacks, you have none.” And there’s plenty of evidence supporting the saying. Teams on their second or third quarterback in November are rarely in the hunt for championships.
Teams that settle on one quarterback early in the season, however, might potentially have a 3,000-yard passer at signal-caller. In a 12-game regular season, it takes 250 passing yards per game to hit the 3,000-yard mark. The most consistent quarterbacks are able to do it. Two did it last season. Two also did it in 2016. But from 2012-2015, at least four QBs threw for 3,000 yards.
Which SEC quarterbacks can hit the mark in 2018? As many as six emerge as possibilities when taking an early look at 2018.
DOING IT AGAIN
Two returning SEC quarterbacks, Auburn’s Jarrett Stidham and Missouri’s Drew Lock, topped the 3,000-yard mark last season. In his first season of SEC action, Stidham, a transfer from Baylor, threw for 3,158 yards on 246-of-370 passing. Lock, meanwhile, came close to achieving a 4,000-yard season. The MU signal-caller finished with 3,964 yards on 242-of-419 passing. (Tim Couch holds the single-season record with 4,275 yards.)
Stidham has the benefit of playing for the same offensive coordinator, Chip Lindsey, again this season. And with running backs Kerryon Johnson and Kamryn Pettway off to the NFL, Lindsey might turn to the passing game even more in 2018.
Luckily for Stidham, Auburn still has plenty of talented receivers. The Tigers’ top two leading wideouts from last season, Ryan Davis (84 catches, 815 yards, 5 TD) and Darius Slayton (29 catches, 643 yards, 5 TD), are back and junior Nate Craig-Myers is impressing this spring.
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Lock, on the other hand, will be playing for his third offensive coordinator at Missouri. With Josh Heupel now the head coach at UCF, former Tennessee head coach Derek Dooley will be in charge of the offensive scheme in CoMo. In two seasons under Heupel’s fast-paced offense, Lock recorded more than 7,000 passing yards. In his first season as a coordinator, one would expect Dooley to lean on his senior quarterback and the passing attack.
Unfortunately for Lock, J’Mon Moore (65 catches, 1,082 yards, 10 TD) is out of eligibility. The Tigers should still be able to throw the ball around with Emanuel Hall (33 catches, 817 yards, 8 TD) and Johnathon Johnson (41 catches, 724 yards, 6 TD) returning for 2018. It also helps that last year’s team leader in touchdown receptions, TE Albert Okwuegbunam (29 catches, 415 yards, 11 TD), is back after a stellar freshman season.
TAKING THE NEXT STEP
Lock and Stidham were the only SEC passers to cross the 3,000-yard mark last season, but that could change in 2018.
Much of Georgia’s success in 2017 was attributed to the team’s potent ground game, but true freshman Jake Fromm registered 9 yards per pass attempt (181-of-291 for 2,615 yards). With Nick Chubb and Sony Michel in the backfield, Fromm was only asked to throw an average of 19.4 passes per game. Without Chubb and Michel, Fromm could see his number of passes per game go up.
Another SEC East quarterback to watch in the chase for 3,000 yards is South Carolina’s Jake Bentley. As the full-time starter in 2017 after taking over late in 2016, Bentley passed for 2,794 yards in 13 games. He was throwing the ball an average 30.3 times per game, but only registering 7.1 yards per attempt. His new position coach might be able to fix that.
After spending a year at Alabama as an analyst, Dan Werner was hired to be USC’s quarterbacks coach. Werner, also a former OC at Ole Miss, will work with new OC Bryan McClendon, who replaced Kurt Roper. That could be exciting news for Bentley and the Gamecocks passing attack.
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Under Werner, former Ole Miss QB Chad Kelly played in only nine games in 2016 due to a season-ending injury but finished fifth among SEC quarterbacks in passing yards with 2,758. At the time of his injury, Kelly was averaging 306.4 passing yards per game. No other SEC quarterback topped 300 yards per game that season. Werner was also Ole Miss’ offensive coordinator in 2015 when Kelly threw for 4,042 yards at an average of 310.9 yards per game.
One other SEC East quarterback deserves to be mentioned here. Vanderbilt’s Kyle Shurmur finished third in the conference in passing yards last season with 2,823 yards. Shurmur averaged 235.3 yards per game in Vanderbilt’s 12-game season. Had he played in a bowl game last year, Shurmur probably would have notched a 3,000-yard season. The Commodores, however, finished 5-7 in 2017.
THE WILDCARDS
At Texas A&M last season, two quarterbacks – Kellen Mond and Nick Starkel – split playing time. In his first spring as the Aggies head coach, Jimbo Fisher is calling it an open competition at quarterback.
If Starkel wins the job, he’s someone to watch as a potential 3,000-yard passer. In seven games last year, he threw for 1,793 yards. In terms of yards per game, Starkel’s average of 256.1 was actually more impressive than Stidham (225.6), Shurmur (235.3), Bentley (214.9) and Fromm (174.9).
Starkel and Mond will have to learn a new offense, but Fisher does have a history of producing 3,000-yard passers. EJ Manuel, Jameis Winston (twice) and Deondre Francois all accomplished the feat during Fisher’s time in Tallahassee.
Jordan Ta’amu will do it. He threw for 720 yards in 2 games last year. This year he’s more experienced and so are his receivers. Don’t be surprised if he breaks 3,000.
From what I saw of Jordan, he surely looks capable, especially in that offense.
Dude is a beast. He was putting up better numbers than Shea Patterson in less time. Be it that he was only a 3-star recruit living in the shadows of 5-stars, he simply underrated and will probably be underrated until he beats a big dog like LSU, Bama, Auburn, a team like that.
Much like last year, I feel like the SEC has a lot of talented QBs. It was disappointing to see the SEC notch only two 3,000 yard passers from a group that had the most potential of any group the last few years. I think this is the year that we have four or five 3,000 yard passers barring any injuries.
Or this group could come out flat much like last year’s group and produce only one or two.
Barring injury, there is no reason to think that the two from last season won’t repeat. UGA could have just as good of a rushing attack as they did last season, so I don’t know about Fromm. SC is talking about going to a faster offense, so that bodes well for Bentley. Shurmur also has a good shot, but he doesn’t have a very good team around him so that will hurt. As B.B. mentioned, Ta’amu looks very capable and he is in the right system to do it. Starkel is in the same boat, as long as he wins the job as expected. LSU lost both studs at RB and have a new OC, so our passing attack should be improved, but I don’t know if we can expect to throw for 3000 yards. LSU probably needs to if they are good big to have a successful season though. I agree with Blep, we should have four or five hit that mark.
UGA ranked 124th out of 130 teams last year in passing percentage of offensive plays (32.5%). Three things were behind that: a TF QB, monster ground game, and an O-line coming off a horrible year. Tight ends and receivers did a lot of blocking. A big chunk of that stat was running the ball in garbage time as well. Kirby talks about balance and he’ll have a reasonably settled offensive situation in 2018. I expect to see more of a 60/40 balance. If Fromm plays all year and doesn’t hit around 3500 yards, I’d be very surprised. I’d also expect to see Fields get more than a few passing opportunities when he’s inserted – his wheels are awesome, but his arm’s even better.
I definitely don’t see Fromm throwing for 3500 yards next season. He threw for 2600 in 15 games and UGA will still be a run first team this season. He might break 3000, but adding 900 yards is quite the stretch.
I dunno. Aaron Murray threw for almost 3900 in 14 games in 2012 in a very similar offense – with Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall in the backfield. I think that a 10% increase in offensive passing (from 32% to 42% of plays) equates to another 700-900 yards for Fromm, which would put him in the neighborhood. Again, depends on Kirby’s balance philosophy, but I expect Jake to be allowed to air it out more.
So the team that won the conference and played for the NC is going to change their offensive philosophy to be more like a team that didn’t win either? Ok then.
That was last year’s team, with a dominant defense, a TF QB, and a ton of blowouts that resulted in very few passes being thrown in the 4th quarter. The youth on the defense just by itself will likely require more passing in all 4 quarters, at least till they get their feet under them. A 60/40 offense is still a heavily run-first scheme. 3500 yards in 14 games is 250 ypg – not at all a stretch with Fromm’s arm. For perspective, a 40% pass play selection in 2017 would have still have placed UGA behind 98 other FBS teams (and barely ahead of Auburn – think about that for a minute). Another consideration is that Kirby has two 5-star receivers committed for 2019, and going after another – he may not be building Air Georgia, but he and Chaney’s plan is NOT to run the ball 68% of the time.
I know I’m bias, but Arkansas just hired a coach that has only failed to produce a 3000 yard passer once or twice (out of around 10 years as a HC and OC).
There may be growing pains, but we are experienced at the position despite Austin Allen leaving. Not unreasonable to mention Arkansas in the same sentence as a 3000 yard passer.
I know I’m bias as well but I’d be surprised if Arky had a 3,000 yd passer this year. I just don’t see all the hype behind Cole Kelley. He’s not agile or squirrely enough to pull that off. Nor does he have many options at receiver. I hope I’m wrong because it’s fun to watch good QBs but I ain’t puttin’ all my eggs in one basket with Kelley.
Jake Fromm will easily make 3000 passing. The UGA receiving corps is deeper and more talented than any since 2012. The O-line may be the best in the SEC, and Fromm now knows the offense.
Jarrett Stidham should have good passing numbers, partially because Auburn may lack a true power back. They may have to be a pass first team, or at least be more balanced.
J’Mon Moore might do well at the next level but it took him an entire college career to slow down on game losing mistakes. Does Missouri have anyone better next year to help Lock?, well they have 3 fast experienced returning receivers. Alabama, Georgia, Michigan all offered Harry Ballard who said no thanks, I like Drew Lock. Having the freshman tight-end Albert O back is not an after-thought. Missouri has a proven record of creating nationally ranked teams on the strength of TE’s like Kellen Winslow (Chargers). Modern college football has only made the position even more pivotal. Dooley gets a more experienced o-line next year also. What is possible for Lock if Odom remembers how he used to keep attacking platoons on the field, instead of having the Missouri defense out there eating up Lock’s clock? This is the “factor” think about it. Georgia scored at will, Auburn scored at will, Purdue scored at will, even Missouri State scored at will, while Kentucky and South Carolina,Texas, and Arkansas scored way too much. If the defense shows up for a season of football, all Dooley has to do is show up with a decent play-book and he knows it. Dooley sure can’t be out-done by Heupel, if he wants to return to Head-coaching and I’m pretty sure that’s why he expressed an interest in Lock and Missouri.
When I was at the Ga-Mizzou game last year, Drew Lock read our defensive backfield and was able to drop many passes, most deep go routes. He’s very accurate, strong arm and we got burned in the 1st half. We were able to counter in the 2nd half but I saw a weakness in our secondary. I see Drew Lock, Jarrett Stidham and Jake Fromm being the top passers in the SEC this upcoming season and in that order.
I believe Lock, Stidham and Fromm if all are healthy in the season may be in the running of the Heisman trophy. 4th would be Jake Bentley if he has a good tight end to throw to in addition to Debo Samuel.