Hayes: Ranking the Power 4 coaching hires
It’s more than Alabama. Really, it is.
Kalen DeBoer’s hiring at Alabama sucked the oxygen from the offseason of coaching change, but there’s intrigue all over the Power 4 conference map.
There’s only 1 Power 4 job still potentially open, and that depends on Jim Harbaugh’s day-to-day thoughts of leaving for the NFL or staying at Michigan.
If Harbaugh leaves, Michigan could easily move offensive coordinator Sherrone Moore — 4-0 as Harbaugh’s replacement during 2 separate 3-game suspensions — into the head coaching position. If Harbaugh does leave for the NFL and Moore isn’t his replacement, it could lead to more Power 4 changes.
Until then, we grade the Power 4 coaching hires:
1. Jonathan Smith, Michigan State
What works: An offensive mind, a program builder. What Smith accomplished at Oregon State — with inherent obstacles of finances and geographic recruiting footprint — was remarkable.
Here’s what they’ll love in East Lansing: The Beavers were the toughest, most physical team in the Pac-12 under Smith. That fits perfectly with the hardscrabble ideals at Michigan State, which — now more than ever — is chasing blueblood rivals Michigan and Ohio State.
Smith brings with him QB Aidan Chiles, a transfer from Oregon State who has the talent to lift a program to the elite of the Big Ten. He was the No. 1 quarterback in the transfer portal this offseason, according to the 247Sports composite.
What doesn’t: It will take time for Smith to build recruiting relationships, and that might mean relying more on the transfer portal early. And frankly, this team is devoid of talent.
Grade: A.
2. Jedd Fisch, Washington
What works: An elite offensive mind, and a head coach coming into his own after years as an assistant in the NFL and college football. It took 3 seasons, but Fisch rebuilt Arizona and won 10 games in 2023 — including a thumping of Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl.
He has worked under some of the best offensive minds of the past quarter century — Steve Spurrier, Brian Billick, Mike Shanahan, Chip Kelly, Harbaugh — and his philosophy is a unique blend of them all. He lost starting QB Jayden de Laura in the first month of last season and replaced him with freshmen Noah Fifita — and eventually won 7 straight games to finish the season.
What doesn’t: Fisch wants to build through recruiting and supplement the buildout with the transfer portal. Washington will be gutted by graduation, early NFL entries and the portal, so 2024 will be a rebuild. That’s a big step down from the national championship game.
Grade: A-.
3. Kalen DeBoer, Alabama
What works: He has won everywhere he has coached, from Division II Sioux Falls to Fresno State to Washington. When you’ve won 104 of 116 career games, and your teams have played for or won national titles in 5 of your 9 seasons, it’s hard to argue with that track record.
His offenses have been prolific, and his quarterback development has been nearly flawless all along the way. He kept 2 critical assistants from Nick Saban’s last staff (Robert Gillespie, Freddie Roach) — both elite recruiters and solid position coaches who can help ease the transition within the locker room.
What doesn’t: He’s following a legend. Someone had to follow Saban and deal with the ridiculous expectations, and DeBoer gets the first crack at it. Everything he does, every decision he makes, will be compared to Saban. So will — more than anything — his record.
Grade: A-.
4. Mike Elko, Texas A&M
What works: A no-frills, take-no-crap coach who won’t play favorites. Basically, the exact opposite of Jimbo Fisher — a blustery personality whom players eventually tuned out (both at FSU and Texas A&M). Elko was an administration and fan favorite when he was Fisher’s defensive coordinator from 2018-21, and he made significant inroads with Texas high school coaches during his time in College Station (see: recruiting).
What doesn’t: The A&M administration waited too long to pull the cord on Fisher (including giving him an extension when one wasn’t warranted), and it has handed the program to a longtime assistant with 2 years as a head coach at Duke. Rival Texas has gained ground and passed the Aggies under Steve Sarkisian, and now the Longhorns arrive in the SEC in 2024. The A&M job — already a beast of a lift — just got harder.
Grade: B+
5. Willie Fritz, Houston
What works: Everywhere Fritz has coached, his teams eventually got better and won a championship or were among the best in their conferences. Once Tulane moved into new facilities and it became easier to recruit to the bucolic Garden District campus, Fritz had back-to-back seasons of 12 and 11 wins — including a Cotton Bowl win over USC in 2022.
What doesn’t: Fritz’s philosophy is simple: Tear it down to the studs and rebuild it. It took a while at Tulane, but only because of inherent issues that took time to change (see: facilities, NIL). Houston — which has the money and is desperate for a winner — wants it now. Understand this: Fritz had better facilities at Tulane than he’ll have at Houston, until the new $130 million renovation to TDECU Stadium is complete in 2025.
Grade: B+
6. David Braun, Northwestern
What works: The 2023 season. How could the Northwestern administration see what Braun accomplished in an untenable situation, and not immediately believe there’s no other choice for the job? In his first head coaching job, he has a chance to lead Northwestern into a new era with the university investing hundreds of millions of dollars in the program. His time as a top assistant at FCS power North Dakota State was critical in his ability to deal with the distractions of 2023.
What doesn’t: Former coach Pat Fitzgerald built for the 2023 season, and he even landed his best recruiting class ever before it all crumbled amid hazing allegations. What happens now that the motivation of “us against the world” is gone, and the realities of consistently winning at Northwestern are staring Braun in the face? It was an unthinkably heavy lift for years under Fitzgerald, the greatest coach in school history.
Grade: B.
7. Jeff Lebby, Mississippi State
What works: Offense, offense, offense. Lebby’s units were among the nation’s elite at UCF, Ole Miss and Oklahoma, his style a unique conglomeration of Baylor’s power run under former coach Art Briles and the passing game of Lane Kiffin.
What doesn’t: This is the way it typically works at Mississippi State: Hire a longtime assistant, and hope for the best. It worked with Dan Mullen, and it failed with Zach Arnett. The hiccup between with Mike Leach was a rarity — and gone far too soon.
Grade: B.
8. Manny Diaz, Duke
What works: Duke had it rolling for 2 years with Elko, who completely changed the offense-first philosophy of David Cutcliffe and zeroed in on defense and getting tougher. Diaz, a longtime DC, will continue the trend — and could improve the roster with his deep recruiting ties to the state of Florida.
What doesn’t: It was hit and miss for Diaz in his only other head coaching job, when Miami panicked after Mark Richt retired and needed a coach — and hired Diaz because he was part of Richt’s staff. A massive undertaking for a first-year coach, and it quickly failed. Duke is the type of job where Diaz’s head coaching career should’ve started.
Grade: B.
9. Curt Cignetti, Indiana
What works: Cignetti has never had a losing season in 13 years as a head coach, from Division II (Indiana-Pennsylvania) to FCS (Elon, JMU) to FBS (JMU). His offenses have been among the best at every level he has coached, and JMU won 19 games in its first 2 seasons in FBS. He’ll change Indiana offensively from Day 1.
What doesn’t: Indiana’s long slog gets more difficult with USC, UCLA, Washington and Oregon entering the Big Ten in 2024. Even if Cignetti is successful, he won’t be around long. It’s the nature of the IU job: a stepping stone — or a tombstone.
Grade: B.
10. Trent Bray, Oregon State
What works: He knows the program, and knows what it takes to win despite the difficult terrain. With so much uncertainty surrounding the program (loss of alum/coach Jonathan Smith to Michigan State, left out of Power 5 contraction), there had to be a steady hand to guide the Beavers forward. Bray was instrumental is the evolution of a tough program under Smith.
What doesn’t: If you think Oregon State was isolated in the Pac-12, wait until it plays a Mountain West schedule over the next 2 years — with uncertainty about its conference future. How does Bray recruit to OSU with that hanging over the program?
Grade: B.
11. Fran Brown, Syracuse
What works: Brown is an elite recruiter who worked years under Georgia coach Kirby Smart (currently the best program builder in college football) and Matt Rhule (an elite program builder). So he has the blueprint. The problem is, Brown doesn’t have the inventory of players — and it’s his first head coaching job. He’ll work tirelessly to get players (high school and portal), despite the difficulty of recruiting to Syracuse.
What doesn’t: The framework at Syracuse is lacking. And that’s putting it mildly. Syracuse lost good players — players former coach Dino Babers and his staff developed — to the transfer portal because there wasn’t the NIL funds/framework to keep them. That has to change. You’re asking a first-time coach to come into a program and completely change everything — and win in the most tenuous time in program history — without a solid NIL framework.
Grade: C.