Nick Saban's perfect record vs. his disciples is dead, so who's next? 1 of these 4 coaches
Down went Nick Saban. Twice.
Specifically, down went Saban to one of his former assistants. Twice.
Both of Alabama’s losses in 2021 came against Saban disciples. Jimbo Fisher and Kirby Smart are the lone members of that exclusive club. After starting off a dominant 24-0, Saban is now a lowly 25-2 against his former assistants.
Saban is set to face 3 former assistants in 2022, not including any potential conference championship/bowl matchups. Will anyone join the winners’ club? Maybe, maybe not. Alabama is expected to be an overwhelming preseason No. 1. Shoot, it’s possible that Saban finishes the year with 5 wins against his former assistants to reach 30 such victories.
But that conversation is a bit more cut and dry. The more interesting question is who is the most likely former Saban disciple to join Fisher and Smart.
These are the top 4 candidates:
4. Mario Cristobal, Miami
Yes, moving from Oregon to Miami changed that. Cristobal is going to have a better chance at recruiting the top-level talent needed to at least have a chance to stay on the field with Alabama. The more immediate issue for Cristobal is putting the kibosh on Saban coming into Florida and signing elite receivers like Amari Cooper, Calvin Ridley and Jerry Jeudy (stay tuned for Ja’Corey Brooks and Christian Leary). Even though the teams have only met once in the 21st century, that has to change in order for Cristobal to remain on this shortlist.
To Cristobal’s credit, he was extremely aggressive in the transfer portal and he put together a formidable staff with fellow former Saban assistants Josh Gattis and Kevin Steele. If there’s ever someone who can actually be a modern-day threat at Miami, it’s Cristobal. Threatening Alabama might be a different beast entirely, though.
The teams don’t have any scheduled matchups, but that’s not to say that they couldn’t meet in the postseason. For now, the best bet for Cristobal to join this club is facing Alabama in a non-Playoff New Year’s 6 bowl in which the Tide have opt-outs galore.
3. Billy Napier, Florida
Wait, what? A first-year coach beating Saban?!? Easy. Not this year. Probably not next year, either. The only way that’s happening is if Florida somehow gets past Georgia and earns a trip to Atlanta. If that happens, well, they’ll start working on putting Napier’s statue next to Steve Spurrier.
Florida isn’t scheduled to play Alabama until 2027 under the current model. Who knows how the Oklahoma/Texas addition might change that, but it’s worth noting that 3 different Florida coaches won a division title and faced a Saban-coached Alabama team. Of course, Urban Meyer was the only one who had any success, and that was 14 years ago.
It’s interesting, though. Of all the Saban disciples, Napier seems to have the most in common with how regimented and detail-oriented he is. Napier isn’t wired like Dan Mullen. There’s also a better understanding of talent acquisition with the new Florida coach. It’s easy to forget that Napier spent 5 years with Saban at Alabama. He was one of the early members of Saban’s analyst program in 2011 after he got fired as Dabo Swinney’s 20-something offensive coordinator at Clemson, and then he spent another 4 years developing receivers like Cooper and Ridley.
Napier (eventually) taking down Saban would be the culmination of a remarkable journey to the top of the college football mountain.
2. Steve Sarkisian, Texas
Yep. You knew it was coming. Whether Texas is back or not, it’s strange to think that Sarkisian could have more cracks at Saban than Smart in the 2020s. We know that Alabama and Texas are set to face off in a home-and-home the next 2 seasons. We also know that Texas is coming to the SEC in 2025, and possibly earlier.
Sarkisian led the 2 most prolific offenses in Alabama history. If you’re assuming he’s doomed to be another bust in Austin, well, I’d say at least wait and see Year 2 or Year 3 with Quinn Ewers before making any sweeping declarations. Shoot, maybe even wait to see Arch Manning in burnt orange?
(Sorry, Alabama fans. Someone has to keep y’all humble every once in a while.)
Sarkisian and Smart were, in my opinion, the best coordinators that Alabama ever had. The latter needed 5 matchups against Saban to finally take him down. Sarkisian does have the benefit of welcoming the Tide to Austin this year in what’ll be the program’s first nonconference road game since traveling to Penn State in 2011. Would I bank on an upset? No, but that atmosphere will be second to none. Perhaps it’ll be a 2020 Alabama-Ole Miss shootout and at the very least, it’ll show that Sarkisian can score against Saban’s defense and the 2023 matchup will feel like a more fair fight.
But whether that happens or not, my fingers are crossed that Texas and Alabama somehow find themselves playing regularly either in the same division or with an annual crossover. Sarkisian should get plenty of chances … as long as he can stick around longer than his predecessor.
1. Lane Kiffin, Ole Miss
I hope you had your popcorn ready.
Kiffin came up short after somewhat infamously calling his shot against the G.O.A.T. — I’d argue he avoided the “L” by making fun of himself and having a promotion for free popcorn at Ole Miss the following weekend — but he’s the most likely person to join the Saban Slayer club. Keep in mind that we still haven’t seen a roster that was truly Kiffin’s. As we saw this offseason, he’s also far from shy with the transfer portal.
If Kiffin were to beat Saban, it wouldn’t necessarily be some “passing of the torch” deal. It could be reminiscent of Hugh Freeze having the right offensive identity and personnel to catch Alabama in the right year. The portal might make that scenario at least possible on an annual basis.
Go figure that the bigger obstacle standing in Kiffin’s way is if he can put together the right defensive staff and personnel in place to ever stop Alabama’s offense. So far, no good. The Tide averaged 52.5 points in 2 meetings against Kiffin’s Ole Miss squad. The last time Ole Miss held Alabama to fewer than 40 points in a game was 2015 … when Kiffin was the Tide’s offensive coordinator in a 43-37 loss.
Still, though. You have to have some swagger to beat Saban. We know Smart has that in spades and after Fisher said he’d beat Alabama’s “you know what” while Saban was at Alabama, it’s safe to say he didn’t lack confidence, either. Kiffin will have that, win or lose. He just might need another year or 2 to deliver on his popcorn promise.
And one to put a pin in … Bill O’Brien (Alabama)
Make your jokes, Alabama fans. Put them all in the comments.
I’ll continue to die on the hill that O’Brien worked wonders as a college head coach at Penn State after the Jerry Sandusky mess. I’ll also continue to believe that O’Brien is going to get another Power 5 head coaching gig. He’s only 52 years old. In case you forgot, he was the offensive coordinator behind Alabama’s first Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback. If and when he dials up another top-5 offense for the overwhelming SEC favorites, those opportunities should be there for O’Brien.
I could see O’Brien getting another opportunity in the ACC (Georgia Tech and Louisville could be interesting) and perhaps following a path similar to the one outlined with the aforementioned Cristobal. That is, face Saban in a non-Playoff New Year’s 6 bowl and pull a 2008 Utah or a 2013 Oklahoma on Alabama.
Hey, I’m not saying it’ll happen. I just want all the credit if it does.
I think Kiffin as he has more opportunities than the others.. Sark may be gone before Texas gets into the SEC and I don’t think this year is going to play out well for him.
Kiffin maybe an I agree with the opportunities. But, I’d put my money on Jimbo or Kirby doing it again vs one on this list.
Good call on Sark. I find it hard to believe that the ESPN 2022 preseason FPI has Texas ranked at 6!
ESPN is a mouth piece for Texas. Doesn’t shock me one bit
FPI preseason is useless and still fairly useless all season.
“The only way that’s happening is if Florida somehow gets past Georgia and earns a trip to Atlanta. If that happens, well, they’ll start working on putting Napier’s statue next to Steve Spurrier.”
Seems like the last 3 guys won the east so I doubt they get too high on him after one east division champ. Lol
Connor O’Gag Me is a noted Jawjuh Homer. Just because Saban lost a couple of close ones with a very young team, doesn’t mean that he’s just going to start losing games regularly. It took almost 20 years of coaching in the SEC for a Saban assistant to get him. I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t lose but maybe 1 or 2 more before he hangs it up
1-2 in his last three. That’s a trend.
Wrong. 3-2 (beat Kiffin early in the year and beat the pants off the dawgs in the sec championship game). Guarantee that trend won’t continue this year. RTR!
Nope…..it was a one off season with a very young team that was hampered by too many injuries to overcome down the stretch. Hardly a trend, but nice try anyway
Would be 2-0 against UGA if both his best receivers had not gone down for the National Championship.
I’ve never considered him a UGA homer, always seemed pretty even with his reporting. He went to IU and his background is B10 so not sure that screams “Jawjuh Homer”
You’re either too much if a homer yourself, or you obviously haven’t read many of his articles if you dont see a clear slant in his writing
So isn’t that 2 – 2 last four and 1 – 2 last three? Maybe I’m confused (but I’m not).
3-2 during the entirety of last season, but by all means pick and choose what you want to fit your narrative.
I’m more than well aware of the success Bill O’Brien had at Penn State and even Houston. But he’s our OC dude, as we speak. What’s the point of trying to project that scenario?
Miami better learn how to beat Dabo and get out of the ACC before they attempt to figure out the GOAT. Besides, Mario’s gameday coaching is still a bit troublesome. Utah manhandled them twice last season with less talent. And I just don’t recall seeing his Oregon teams in the playoffs.
We’ll get a good idea of where he has them in week 3.
Talent-wise, no contest. And I’m pretty sure Jimbo remembers this rival from his last school
Yeah. He always had luck against them then
Talent wise Miami is relatively stacked because for all is faults, Manny Diaz recruited very well, and he’s left Mario a young but very experienced team that definitely has a shot against Texas A&M. Miami is not Texas A&M level, but they are within the top 15 talent wise, meaning they have enough talent to beat any team with good coaching and favorable circumstances.
Cannot wait for this football game. Have my flight booked from Midland to College Station already.
Mario Cristobal? Spot On comment!
Always the off chance Saban retires before any of them beat him, or at least get the opportunity to beat the GOAT.
Saban could lose 10 times in a row or more to these guys and he’ll still always be head and shoulders better based on his long term success.
So you think he will retire before the season starts? Just stop with the nonsense already…
Yea that was weirdly worded. A few coaches on this list play him this year so they will definitely get the opportunity, question is will they be able to do anything with it.
Also it wouldn’t surprise me if Saban retires before another assistant beats him, though I hope Kirby can do it a few more times before then!
I guess none of you got past junior high if you don’t understand English. Time for you adult kids to grow up.
I think the confusion is this portion: “or at least get the opportunity to beat the GOAT.” The implication is that you are saying that Saban will retire before any of them have the opportunity to beat him, meaning that he will retire before any of these coaches have a game against him.
I’m not saying that you meant it this way, that’s just where the other comments are coming from. I hope this helps.
“or at least get the opportunity to beat the GOAT.”
Well for coaches on this list to not have the opportunity to beat him he would need to retire prior to the games that happen this season…
So please explain your understanding of the English language since it’s obviously different than everyone else’s…
GeauxTigers8-I can assure you we understand the English language perfectly fine. It seems like you are the one that is struggling with writing a coherent thought.
These guys will absolutely get an opportunity to beat Saban, half of them play him this year!
How silly of me to expect y’all to understand English above your learning curve.
Now, I posed the same statement to a cousin’s husband who teaches college English in another state, and my former college English professor.
Both understood my statement completely.
If you aren’t too intelligent, I can see where you might be confused as a child.
Common sense says the former assistants in the West will get their chance yearly.
Even the two professors knew immediately I was really referring to Cristobal and Napier.
C’mon guys, thought y’all were better than that.
The cousin’s husband probably already knows you’re and idiot…
Just because you meant to say something and someone figured it out doesn’t mean what you posted is correct…
I know it’s silly of me to actually expect you to be able to comprehend your own sentence….
“Common sense says the former assistants in the West will get their chance yearly.”
And yet your post said the exact opposite…
We’ll see how close Sark can keep the Shorthorns against him. He doesn’t have the really good WRs Texas had vs LSU, and his QB position is a huge question mark unlike Ehlinger.
Haven’t you heard? Ewers is a lock for Heisman. He took 3 snaps at tOSU and he’s a shoe-in.
Joe Dirt for Heisman
He certainly looks it.
I have always felt that Texas, like Notre Dame, is over-hyped. I watched the Texas spring game and was really impressed with Ewers. The physical talent in that arm is unmistakable. How quickly he processes and his leadership is yet to be determined. Texas has Xavier Worthy at the #1 WR. He would rank among my top 3 WRs in college football. Texas is high on the list for portal transfer Jordan Addison. If, and it’s a big IF, Addison goes to Texas, the Longhorns likely have the best duo, along with Ohio State, at WR in the country. I still think Texas is a couple of years away from the big-time, but they are heading in the right direction.
get outta here with facts and unbiased comments foots.
Need to revamp their Oline and Defense before that happens. Skill guys have always been at Texas. They have struggled in the trenches and on defense since ’09. Will be interesting to see.
Talent has never been an issue at texas. It’s a culture problem. Don’t forget, Ewers was playing against the texas defense. See where they ranked last year.
Thanks Connor.
This from a Ducks fan, believe me the vast majority of us most happy that Mario Cristobal went MIA.
He is a recruiting champ and a coaching chump. His Vince Lombardi/Woody Hayes brand of football was killing the Oregon brand and not maxing out the talent of guys he recruited. He is a micro-manager who refused to let Joe Moorhead run his O and made the NFL rookie of the year look pedestrian at QB.
For the most part Mario’s Oregon teams played down to the level of the competition.
Make all the excuses you like about the FIU gig hurting his record (note that Butch Davis did a much better job at FIU than Mario) but Mario is 62-60 as head coach and as Bill Parcells said, your record is what you are.
Matt Campbell made Mario look like a chump in the Fiesta Bowl. Saban and his staff would run circles around Mario.
Manny Diaz had Miami headed in the right direction. I think within 3 seasons Miami fans are going to regret firing Diaz and hiring Mario.
In 2022, Miami takes the L at A+M, at Clemson and in at least 2 other games. THIS with a very good QB in Van Dyke.
If Mario did not have a fantastic QB in 2019, Oregon would have had a mediocre season that year and likely lost to both Washington and Washington State.
He’s not as good of a coach as people make him out to be. It’s sad because the one time he let Moorhead do his job, Oregon went into Ohio State and bullied them. 2021 Oregon based on its talent alone had a lot of potential and had no business being emasculated not once but twice by a very much less talented Utah team that also happened to lose to Ohio State in a neutral field.
I didn’t read the article. We had to listen to this BS for years. Game after game against his former assistants. Last season he lost to two and it was kind of a relief, I thought the media would have enough brain cells to now move on to another topic. This article as proven me wrong. With the number of Saban assistants in just the SEC it is a virtual certainty that it is going to happen again, heck he will probably play 4 this season and most seasons. Pull your head out and find something else to write about, that has not been done to death. Like maybe Arch Manning.
It’s the offseason, gotta find something to write about. How long til kickoff???
Too long. We are just about a week past the halfway point.
Once we get within 100 days, it’s hard for me to think about anything else!
LOL! It is hard for me to think of anything else when the CFPCG ends.
Someone made the comment that Texas and Notre Dame is over hype, so is Ohio State and Michigan and the rest of the big ten. The only thing that saves the big ten is that they have the TV market and all those sport journalists are from the great lake conference.
with ohio st losing to oregon in the reg season, mich getting punched in the mouth in the playoff and ohio st struggling to beat a top 15 utah team….there’s a lot of support to your argument in that the big 10 is very overrated
I’m really not clear whether the article’s question is (1) the next L for Saban against a former assistant, or (2) the next . . . not named Jimbo or Kirby. It reads both ways.
Right now, Kirby and Jimbo are the only ones who can reasonably match up roster to roster with Nick, and Kirby has a decided advantage there over Jimbo. A&M plays in T-town this year, so bad odds on that one. If UGA and Bama hook up again in Atlanta, that will likely be another slugfest. Saban will cruise past Texas and Ole Miss in the regular season.
i took the intention of the article was to identify the next former assistant not named smart or fisher.
agree with all in your 2nd paragraph
it’s no secret that the media loves kiffin, and with good reason, but i’d be very interested to see an honest poll as to where his peers rank him. peers within the conf and outside of the conf.
as for the conf, i believe he’d definitely garner votes in the top of half from the coaches, but i feel like the media would rank him no lower than #4….with possibly some #2 and #3 votes.
33-18
Coach: Jim McElwain Game: pick-up bball. Mic drop
So what about Kirby? When is he going to lose to one of his disciples? The answer? Week 3 2022
Thank you for coming to my Ted talk
I mean, strange stuff happens, but I wouldn’t bet your kid’s college fund on that one lol.
I kinda hope it’s all of them, ASAP…but that’s just me.