Ad Disclosure
I don’t want to sound ungrateful here because I can appreciate all forms of college football.
But I’m grateful that everyone in the SEC has played at least 1 Core 4 team. That’s right. Core 4 is way better than “Power 4.”
It makes it easier to figure out who teams are and, of equal significance, who teams aren’t. There can be a lot of smoke and mirrors at this stage of the season. Are Tennessee, Ole Miss and Mizzou as dominant defensively as those early numbers suggest? And on the flip side, is a challenging 3-game start for Kentucky responsible for how inept the offense has been so far?
We’re starting to get some questions that can be answered in Week 4.
Here are my early thoughts on each of those SEC matchups:
Florida vs. Mississippi State — If the Gators can’t stop THIS ground game, Billy Napier deserves Lane Kiffin treatment
By “Lane Kiffin treatment,” I mean USC-left-on-the-tarmac Kiffin. Not Ole Miss-extension-that-somehow-works-around-Mississippi-state-law Kiffin. Napier’s “defense” allowed an average of 227 rushing yards against FBS teams, and it’ll face a Mississippi State run game that ranks No. 114 in FBS. But the latter was inflated by a 203-yard rushing performance against FCS Eastern Kentucky. Against FBS foes, Mississippi State ran for an average of 45 yards with 1.67 yards/carry. I don’t care if the cowbells are ringing at Dak Prescott-era levels; if Florida doesn’t have an answer for that, Napier will be busting out rideshare apps to get back to Gainesville.
Ohio vs. Kentucky — Good Lord, Kentucky needs to get back into the end zone
Lost in the shuffle of that down-to-the-wire game against Georgia was the fact that for the second consecutive week, the Cats were held without a touchdown. Brock Vandagriff and that UK offensive line have been overwhelmed by the first 2 SEC pass-rushes they saw. OC Bush Hamdan desperately needs an opening drive script that gets some good vibes back on the offensive side of the ball. Fortunately for Kentucky, an Ohio team that got lit up by Kyle McCord’s Syracuse squad in its lone game against Core 4 competition should be susceptible to some offensive fireworks.
Arkansas vs. Auburn — What can (Hank) Brown do for Hugh (Freeze)?
Sorry. That’s not mine. My guy Dari Nowkhah said that on SEC Final and it was too good not to repeat. The new Auburn starter will get a chance to spin it against an SEC defense, albeit one that Payton Thorne lit up last year in Fayetteville. Take that for what it is. For Freeze, it’s a chance to evaluate if Brown’s solid showing against New Mexico was just a byproduct of the competition or if it was a sign that the lightly recruited Brown is ready to lead a program. I like that Freeze didn’t mince words about his intentions after the New Mexico game. Brown is either ready or not. He’ll be a popular man if he can limit mistakes and unleash the new-look Auburn pass-catchers.
UCLA vs. No. 16 LSU — I want a Caden Durham game plan for LSU
Entering this past Saturday, Durham was third in the running back pecking order having played 12 snaps on the season, which yielded 4 rushing yards on 5 carries. Then, Saturday happened. He played 23 snaps and turned 11 carries into 98 yards and 2 touchdowns. It’s worth noting that as great as Durham looked, Josh Williams still played 40 snaps, and he scored the game-winning touchdown at the goal line. The likelihood of Durham becoming a 20-carry guy probably isn’t particularly high, but against a rebuilding UCLA program, it’d be nice to see Durham get a nice chunk of the opening script and a heavy first-half workload.
Vanderbilt vs. No. 7 Mizzou — If Mizzou’s defense is legit, it’ll impose its will against the capable Diego Pavia
I’m still in wait-and-see mode with the new-look Mizzou defense. I’ll admit that scoreless stretch to start the season didn’t confirm my preseason prediction that a significant regression was in store in the post-Blake Baker era, but we saw coverage busts against Boston College that would suggest the Tigers aren’t guaranteed to be a juggernaut on that side of the ball. It’ll be interesting to see how that translates to defending a dual threat like Pavia. No play is dead with him, and if you’re not gap-disciplined, he can make you pay. Granted, it took too long for that to happen in the Georgia State loss, but Pavia’s capable of taking advantage of coverage busts if Mizzou has eyes peaking in the backfield.
Bowling Green vs. No. 25 Texas A&M — This is suddenly an interesting QB situation to monitor
Marcel Reed led A&M to its first road win in 3 years while Conner Weigman was ruled out for the SEC opener with a shoulder injury. Could Weigman have executed that ground-heavy game plan? Perhaps, but Reed’s emergence on the road shouldn’t be dismissed. Weigman’s Week 1 struggles could’ve been the byproduct of facing an experienced, talented Notre Dame defense. But assuming he’s able to return this week — perhaps there’s more urgency for him to look the part after what Reed did — could A&M have a shorter leash with the former 5-star recruit? It’s possible. Or it’s possible that Weigman moves past his debut in the new offense and Reed’s role is to be the capable backup. Either way, keep an eye on the Aggies’ QB situation.
Akron vs. South Carolina — Is it worth it to sit LaNorris Sellers to rest that ankle?
Sellers left each of his first 2 SEC games with an ankle injury. He returned against Kentucky, and attempted to do so against LSU, but ultimately, he wasn’t as effective and Robby Ashford played the rest of the game. In a favorable matchup against Akron, might Shane Beamer play it conservatively with his starter and get Ashford a bit more comfortable in the Dowell Loggains offense? It looked like there was still a lack of trust in Ashford’s ability to throw during some crucial moments against LSU. That was the case throughout Ashford’s up-and-down time at Auburn. His legs are a clear strength, but early indications are that Sellers’ skill set could have him a bit more susceptible to injuries. Getting Ashford on the same page as the first-team wideouts could be beneficial in a game like this.
Georgia Southern vs. No. 5 Ole Miss — Henry Parrish is quietly making Ole Miss look smart for not ponying up to keep Quinshon Judkins
I say this not to hate on Judkins’ who left Ole Miss for a shared backfield at Ohio State. But so far, Lane Kiffin’s move to bring Parrish back to Oxford after he spent the last 2 years at Miami looks like a smart one. I won’t pretend to know Judkins’ price compared to Parrish’s, but I can’t imagine Ole Miss feels bad about that decision after 3 weeks. Parrish clearly supplanted Ulysses Bentley IV as the feature back with a 338-53 rushing yard advantage and a 131-36 snaps advantage, including a 64-3 snaps advantage against Wake Forest. Matt Jones actually got more run as the backup as LSU transfer Logan Diggs works his way back from injury. Whatever the case, Parrish looks phenomenal so far in Kiffin’s post-Judkins offense. I’d expect that to continue in a major way against a Georgia Southern team that’s No. 132 out of 134 FBS teams against the run.
UL Monroe vs. No. 1 Texas — Arch Madness is here
All signs point to Arch Manning getting his first FBS start on Saturday in place of the injured Quinn Ewers, who left the UTSA game with an abdomen strain. That opened the door for Arch Madness to ensue. Manning looked the part both with his arm and his legs. There were some plays that he probably wanted to have back, but he still looked plenty capable of executing the Steve Sarkisian offense against a well-coached UTSA squad. Take that for what it is. Also take it for what is that UL-Monroe is rolling into Austin. No takeaway should be “Sarkisian should bench Ewers for Manning.” But I suppose never rule it out with Arch Madness in full effect.
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Oklahoma — This is the way I hoped the Josh Heupel-Oklahoma reunion would set up
Here’s what I mean — it’s not just that both teams are undefeated and worthy of the College GameDay billing for Heupel’s first game in Norman since being fired from his alma mater as its co-offensive coordinator in 2014. It’s that Tennessee looked like an unstoppable force on both sides of the ball. We’re going to get a true SEC test for Oklahoma, which hasn’t been quite as unstoppable so far. The Sooners’ offense is still in search of their identity while Heupel’s looks like it can score 50 points without batting an eye. Ironic? Sure. Heupel spent a decade climbing back up the coaching ladder after he took the heat for Oklahoma’s struggles, and now, he’s got a chance to get a monumental road win. For my money, it’s the best game of the year so far.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
