O'Gara: Early thoughts on each SEC matchup in Week 6
The midway point is near.
Don’t panic. It’s not here. It’s near. It’s nearly time to hand out midseason awards and circle back to some awful preseason predictions.
For now, though, the first week of October still counts as part of the first half of the season. What do we really know about these teams now that everyone has had a chance to play at least 1 SEC game? It’s a fair question.
The schedules are still a bit all over the place in the first part of the season. That’ll even out somewhat, but it’s perhaps going to be at the forefront of why a team like Ole Miss gets upset against Kentucky.
Let’s dig into the Week 6 slate with some early thoughts on each SEC matchup:
No. 9 Mizzou vs. No. 25 Texas A&M — Has Mizzou figured out the offense during the bye week?
I know that the raw numbers suggest that Mizzou’s offense is fine at 36.5 points per game (No. 29 in FBS), but anybody who watched this team with the context of the preseason expectations knows that plenty of meat has been left on the bone. Brady Cook’s downfield accuracy hasn’t been there and there’s a lingering sense of angst for a group that surprisingly ranks No. 57 in FBS in yards/play. There have been too many droughts of Luther Burden III unable to get looks in space and while Nate Noel has been a bright spot in the backfield, he’s not at Cody Schrader levels of dominance.
So against A&M with a defensive line that feasted against Arkansas and forced Taylen Green into some bad turnovers, can the Tigers play their best offensive game of the season in that atmosphere? That’s what it’ll take. Mike Elko figures to let his defensive line pin its ears back and force Cook into some of those quick decisions. If Mizzou OC Kirby Moore doesn’t have some screen passes and quick hitters outside the hashes, it’d be stunning. Whatever the case, we’re about to find out whether the Tigers are Playoff-worthy.
Auburn vs. No. 5 Georgia — Auburn’s only hope? Play like a service academy … like last year
Auburn is going to a place where it hasn’t won in nearly 2 decades, and it’ll do so with an offense that’s turned the ball over more than any FBS team not named “East Carolina.” That’s not ideal. Last year’s game plan vs. Georgia at Jordan-Hare Stadium was ideal. Running the football as a 1-dimensional offense kept the ball out of Payton Thorne’s hands and instead forced Georgia into a much tougher game than anticipated.
The Dawgs are coming off a heavyweight fight against Alabama. Is it possible that a banged-up UGA defensive line doesn’t want to see a ground-heavy approach? Certainly. Hugh Freeze knows that even on Thorne’s best day, he can make a game-deciding costly mistake like he did against Oklahoma. Avoiding obvious passing situations and turning him into a run-first quarterback is the only way to avoid embarrassment in Athens … where Auburn hasn’t hit 11 points since 2009.
No. 12 Ole Miss vs. South Carolina — Another elite defensive line will challenge Ole Miss
Kentucky deserves immense credit for leaning on the strength of Deone Walker and JJ Weaver to frustrate the Ole Miss offensive line. The latter wasn’t ready for a 60-minute fight, and it showed. Against South Carolina off a bye week, that Ole Miss offensive line might have an even greater challenge. Kyle Kennard and Dylan Stewart are already among the best pass-rushers in college football. They can make it a long day for Jaxson Dart in Columbia.
Dart played like only trusted Tre Harris against Kentucky, which might not be a bad strategy on most days, but it felt like he only had time for that first read, and then he was running for his life. That formula cannot be repeated if Ole Miss wants to avoid what would be a stunning 0-2 start to SEC play.
No. 1 Alabama vs. Vanderbilt — Chasing around Diego Pavia won’t be a fun 60 minutes
Look. I’m not saying that this will be a down-to-the-wire game. I am saying that Pavia is a unique matchup who’ll be unlike anything Alabama has faced in this young season. He doesn’t have the size of USF quarterback Byrum Brown, but they operate similarly. They’ll call their own number a lot, and they can extend drives with their legs if you don’t properly account for them. That can take an opposing offense out of rhythm. So far, USF has been the only team that did that to the Tide, though we know that the final minutes of that 4th quarter skewed the result.
Pavia won’t be afraid of the moment. In his last 2 games against SEC competition, he went into Auburn and stunned the Tigers last year with New Mexico State and most recently, Pavia nearly led an upset of a top-10 Mizzou team in Columbia. Nobody is calling for a 3-touchdown upset, but Pavia is more than capable of making any potential post-Georgia hangover last a little bit longer for the Tide.
No. 4 Tennessee vs. Arkansas — How many Taylen Green turnovers are too many?
Asking for a friend. Actually, I’m asking for Arkansas fans who would prefer to have Tennessee on the ropes instead of feasting off turnovers like A&M just did in the final game of the Southwest Classic. Arkansas is among the 20 worst FBS teams in turnovers lost (9 on the season) and it’ll face a Tennessee defense that forced 7 turnovers in 4 games. That’s not ideal for the home Hogs. We saw A&M’s loaded defensive line get after Green and force him into some bad decisions.
We know that Tennessee’s defensive line might be the best in all of college football. Coming off a bye week, that group could be chomping at that bit to get some takeaways and hand some short fields to Nico Iamaleava. Any path to an Arkansas upset as a 2-touchdown underdog will call for Green to avoid a multi-turnover game.
UCF vs. Florida — Did Colorado just give Florida some hope that it can stop the run?
One of the most stunning revelations of the weekend was that Deion Sanders’ squad found the right answers to contain UCF’s 4-headed rushing attack, which was the top rushing attack in FBS entering Week 5. The Knights were held to 177 rushing yards, which was a little bit less than half their average. The Buffaloes got off blocks and showed why they’re one of the more improved defenses in America.
Can Florida take that blueprint and apply it to Saturday’s showdown in The Swamp? So far, nothing suggests that Florida is ready to stop the run. The Gators are No. 110 in FBS against the run and in 3 games against FBS foes, they allowed an average of 231 rushing yards/game. Woof. Mind you, that’s after Florida allowed 206 rushing yards/game in November last year. In other words, Billy Napier is still searching for an answer that he couldn’t find down the stretch last year. Hiring Ron Roberts, AKA the guy who was fired each of the last 2 seasons as a Power 5 DC, doesn’t appear to be the answer.
Let’s see if he can help Napier avoid sinking to a new low on Saturday.
mizzou v ATM should be a good one.
Auburn may run into a buzz saw in athens. That one is likely going to be ugly.
ole miss v SC is must watch for me and should be a dandy.
Bama may have a little hangover early but I expect them to win big in the end.
UT v ark looks one sided to me but being at ark may help them. I think we win by multiple scores. Im expecting a breakout game from Nico this week.
two florida teams and neither showing much so far. I lean florida on this one.
Finally a Tenn fan who isn’t roasting Mizzou lol. That game at College Station should be a good one, and we will learn a lot about who Mizzou really is. With all due respect to Arkansas, I think UT is going to show just how dominate they are this year. And that’s not a dig at Arkansas, it’s just that UT has a team that has brought back the ORANGE in College Football :)
What helped last season was constant pressure from the D. All kinds of rushes on the QB from all angles. I think so far we haven’t stunted enough and put pressure on the QB’s
All eyes on Auburn’s first half. They have a chance versus a poorly coached Georgia squad.
You have to be collecting unemployment with how much you post on here. Nobody and I mean nobody posts as much as you. The only way this is possible is if you don’t have a job or a life. It is probably both for you.
And how would you know they comment as much as they? You would have to be on here just as much if not more they they are. In guess your words must have come from experience. How’s your job search going?
You are confused. You are seeing double.
You an NS guy from KC?
I imagine Auburn is gonna to get pounded this week. I see really no chance they get out of Athens a winner. Does Mizzou handle business like the potential playoff team they are? AM has a bunch of talent on both sides of the ball, and it’s tough to play on the road. This will be a close one. Does UK beat Ole Miss twice? Ole Miss on the road at SC, who pounded UK wow doesn’t look good for Ole Miss. Do my Vols handle business against Arkansas? I do think the Defense will travel and coming off a bye is a big plus. There are some really good, interesting games this week.
Arkansas is among the 20 worst FBS teams in turnovers lost (9 on the season) and it’ll face a Tennessee defense that forced 7 turnovers in 4 games. That’s not ideal for the home Hogs. We saw A&M’s loaded defensive line get after Green. Green is a turnover machine! Look for this game to get ugly real quick and Arkansas to get run out of their own stadium!!
I think our byes really helped both of our teams. Mizzou needed to figure out how to play football and Tenn just needed to rest lol.
Well I hope voltrainconductor is happy…We’re above Georgia in the meaningless AP poll…Unfortunately that does not make us any less likely to avoid going 0-2 against Bama and UGA.
I hope we can avoid a trap game upset this year unlike the last two years, like 2022 @ SC and 2023 @ UF. Arky should be overmatched but they have weapons
I meant any less likely to Go 0-2. Oh well
You are effeminate and not a small reason why your team has been in the wilderness for 15 years. They have testosterone therapy for what ails you.
Ah look at that I guess he’s still angry. Go figure.
Ole Miss has to figure out the offensive line combination. It’s tough enough being down one or two offensive linemen, but 4 linemen out really showed the offensive line isn’t as deep as we were led to believe.
There is no way fla stops the run. Colorado held UCF in check in the run game well below there average. My logic is UCF will get there average I’m sticking with that prediction until UF shows they can stop someone’s run. Mississippi State ran for over 400 on them and we’re not that good. I look for UCF to get Billy’s hot seat on fire after Saturday’s game. Gus wants to run his bus over Billy and then back over him again.
“The Dawgs are coming off a heavyweight fight against Alabama. Is it possible that a banged-up UGA defensive line doesn’t want to see a ground-heavy approach?”
UGA is going to be playing angry. I expect them to take that anger out on AU.
Beck has suddenly become an enigma…
after last season’s cakewalk came to an end against a stiff team, we can see that “big game” Beck lacks “big game” experience.
He is really missing Bowers and McConkey. Also the UGA rushing attack is absent in my opinion so far.
very possible…
but Beck had arm strength and accuracy problems too; things like that show up in “big games” and there are more “big games” on their way…
unlike last year, the “big games” this year will be good for Beck when those “loser goes home” games begin.
“He is really missing Bowers and McConkey.”
Bowers was the game changer in last years AU/UGA game. He was most def their Gronkowski.
Not expecting an upset in Nashville, but I think this game is interesting for at least a half and would not be surprised if it was still in doubt headed into the fourth quarter. There’s always a mental drop-off after playing a huge game like Alabama just did (it’s just part of human psychology) and Vandy has had a week off to rest and prepare. If the ‘Dores come out playing like its their Super Bowl, they can keep us Tide fans on the edge of our seats for a while, though like with South Florida I believe our edge in depth and talent will allow us to pull away late.
Better watch it…they might try to pull off another Bill Marinangel surprise!
Texas A&M and Mizzou may be decided in the turnovers. If it’s even, Mizzou has the disadvantage with field goals. That being said, Mizzou had an extra week to prepare and figure out how to fix their offensive woes. Texas A&M hasn’t. But A&M has been more battle tested.
The CoMo Tigers better have their OL ready to give Cook enough time to find his receivers. A&M has the best defense Mizzou will have seen to date, which has already picked off 7 passes.
I agree. I’m not too concerned with A&M’s offense, just Mizzou’s offense and A&M’s defense. Cook may have not delivered much the past two games, but he only has one meaningless interception this year. Him and all the ball handlers are going to have to make sure they hold onto the ball. That being said, watch it be a high scoring matchup and surprise everyone.
You should be concerned with one aspect of A&M’s offense. Pavia gave the Tiger D fits all game long. Reed is just like Pavia, except with a better OL in front of him and better weapons around him.
Pavia was alright. Mizzou kept him under control most of the game. If Mizzou offense had done decently, Mizzou defense wouldn’t have been on the field as long.
Alabama will crush Vanderbilt…
buyer beware, Pavia isn’t going to produce what O’Gara is selling.
If your correct, It will be good coaching Vandy can keep it close . They are the best team I have watched mizzou play They will surprise a lot of teams
Don’t worry about Auburn, Freeze will have the perfect game plan and make all the right calls. And the defense will always be in the right scheme. Just wait until after game and he will tell you.
Connor – “I am saying that Pavia is a unique matchup who’ll be unlike anything Alabama has faced in this young season” You then proceed to say he is just like the USF QB Bama played.
Ole Miss better have their heads in this game against USCe, and not looking ahead to LSU. That DL of the Gamecocks is the real deal. I think Ole Miss may win an extremely close and low scoring game, but would not be surprised to see USCe win either, especially if Sellers is healthy and able to use his legs in the RPO.
I was amazed that Beck kept putting up those 50/50 balls. He got away with it until he didn’t. If he keeps this up, UGA will lose a couple of more games.