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Welcome to late October, where 7 SEC teams still have a shot at playing in Atlanta.
That’s right. Seven. Seven SEC teams have 1 or fewer conference losses.
Go figure that Alabama isn’t one of them. That’s the first time that Alabama has 2 pre-November losses since 2007. It’s also the first time since 2007 that we won’t have any unbeaten teams heading into November.
So … is it 2007 all over again? Like, when LSU won a national title with 2 losses?
Perhaps. Consider that a silver lining for many SEC teams in action this weekend.
Here are my early thoughts on the Week 9 SEC slate:
Oklahoma vs. No. 18 Ole Miss — Um, this could be South Carolina 2.0 for the Sooners
Have you ever been on a plane with horrible turbulence, and you think it’s over after a few calm seconds, only to realize then that there’s a lot more coming? That’s how I feel about the Oklahoma offense transitioning from the South Carolina defensive line to the Ole Miss defensive line. If there was any notion that the Sooners would be out of the woods by facing a lesser foe up front, it might take 1 series to realize that won’t be the case against one of the best defensive lines in America.
Perhaps the only saving grace for the Oklahoma offense is that Ole Miss did watch an equally incompetent offense (Kentucky) roll into Oxford and pull off a stunning upset. Perhaps the firing of OC Seth Littrell and a few splash plays can lift Oklahoma to what would be a mammoth upset … or perhaps the turbulence is about to get even worse with so many moving pieces.
Arkansas vs. Mississippi State — Sam Pittman, don’t lose this one and undo that start
If Pittman is going to keep his job beyond 2024, he needs to win this one. Period. If not, the optics of losing to the 1-6 Mississippi State squad that got whipped by Toledo will weigh heavily on that decision. That’s not a disrespect to Jeff Lebby’s squad, who hung tough against 3 consecutive top-15 teams and looked significantly better than it did in the first few weeks of the season. But for Pittman, this is the game you cannot afford to lose. It’s the game that would feel like a gut punch that could undo the Tennessee win.
Nobody will give Pittman a pass if Taylen Green and Ja’Quinden Jackson are less than 100%, either. It’s still a porous Mississippi State defense that ranks No. 121 in FBS in yards/play allowed. Also, it’s late October in the SEC. Everyone has injuries. It’s Pittman’s job to overcome that. If he can get to 5-3 with home games against Ole Miss and Texas coming up, the vibes will be entirely different down the stretch than if a 4-win team might only be favored in 1 of its remaining games (Louisiana Tech). A can’t-lose game awaits Pittman in Starkville.
No. 21 Mizzou vs. No. 15 Alabama — We’re past the possibility of “angry Alabama” being a thing
I don’t want to hear it anymore. “Angry” Alabama is a fantasy. It’s not reality. The reality is if “angry Alabama” existed after the Vandy loss, we would’ve seen it take care of business against South Carolina, or we would’ve seen it show up to Neyland with some bad intentions. Instead, Alabama turtled down the stretch in consecutive weeks and is probably fortunate to be 1-1 in those 2 games. Angry teams are supposed to show up and put the game away by halftime. Then again, Alabama appeared to do that against Georgia and we know how that second half went.
I bring that up because some will use that as a reason to explain why Alabama will take care of Mizzou instead of pointing out that the Tide didn’t even hit 3 yards per carry in the last 2 games coming off the Vandy loss. Meanwhile, it surrendered 132 rushing yards to a 1-dimensional South Carolina offense and 214 rushing yards to a 1-dimensional Tennessee offense. Nothing suggests that “angry Alabama” is part of the Tide’s DNA outside of the first half against Georgia when it dominated on both sides of the ball, though that was before the Tide had anything to be angry about. The only thing that’s angry about Kalen DeBoer’s squad is the fanbase.
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 25 Vanderbilt — Not to doubt a potentially limited Diego Pavia, but …
I’m not one to doubt Pavia. Only a fool would do such a thing, even if he could be hobbled after the leg injury that took him to the medical tent against Kentucky. But only a fool would fail to point out that even after the Georgia loss, the Texas defense is still in the discussion for the best unit in college football. Plus, that group held UGA to 4 yards/play while forcing 3 Carson Beck interceptions. It was by no means at fault for how lopsided that game was. The unit that Pavia will face against Texas will be far more disciplined than what he saw against Alabama.
The Longhorns’ FBS defensive rankings are silly:
- No. 1 in opposing yards/play
- No. 1 in scoring defense
- No. 1 in opposing passing TDs
- No. 1 in opposing yards/pass attempt
- No. 1 in opposing 20-yard scrimmage plays
- No. 2 in opposing passing yards/game
- T-No. 2 in opposing 30-yard scrimmage plays
- No. 2 in opposing QB rating
- No. 3 in opposing red-zone TD percentage
And by the way, Texas is also No. 10 in opposing 3rd-down conversion percentage and No. 11 in opposing yards/rush, which is why this should have a different feel than when Pavia’s legs fueled a 12-for-18 3rd-down conversion rate against Alabama.
No. 8 LSU vs. No. 14 Texas A&M — Take your “no stakes in the 12-team Playoff” concerns and watch this one
In a division-less SEC, this matchup is monumental because it involves the last 2 teams without a conference loss. The winner of this game will go into November without a conference loss with a self-controlled path to Atlanta, where a Playoff bye will be on the line. So no, LSU-A&M isn’t a game that’ll decide a national title, but for a pair of teams who were written off after disappointing season-opening losses, there are massive stakes on the line. This will feel like a “Playoff elimination game” even if it isn’t. That atmosphere will be second to none because obviously, A&M has never been to Atlanta since joining the SEC.
But what both of these programs would love more than anything is to have an SEC Championship path when they face their rivals at home. LSU will get Alabama after this one (with a bye week beforehand) and A&M will get Texas to close the regular season. We know Alabama-LSU has been an SEC Championship play-in game on plenty of occasions — the winner of Alabama-LSU won the SEC West in 13 of the last 16 years — but can you imagine if the return of Texas-Texas A&M has an SEC Championship berth on the line? The path to that includes an A&M win on Saturday night. Needless to say, Kyle Field will be rocking.
Auburn vs. Kentucky — This is suddenly Auburn’s best chance to win an SEC game in 2024
Oh, you think Auburn’s best shot for an SEC win is against Vandy with Diego Pavia returning to Jordan-Hare? Buddy, no thanks. I shouldn’t have to tell Auburn fans that after how last year’s Pavia matchup played out with New Mexico State. I also shouldn’t have to tell them that it’s not against an A&M team that’s 1 of 2 remaining unbeaten SEC teams in conference play, and while Alabama is certainly in its post-Nick Saban era, let’s not pretend an Auburn team who hasn’t beaten an AP Top 25 foe in 3 years will be in a favorable spot to take care of business in Tuscaloosa, where the Tide haven’t lost to an SEC foe at home since 2019 vs. LSU.
Auburn’s best chance for an SEC win is against a Kentucky team that’s — wait for it — 1-8 in its last 9 SEC home games since Nov. 2022. Something’s gotta give. So far in SEC play, Auburn’s been giving away games with disastrous 4th quarters. The Tigers have allowed all 4 SEC foes to score double-digit points in the 4th quarter … most recently to a QB who spent part of Saturday’s game in the hospital. In other words, Auburn might need a 21-point advantage heading into the final period on Saturday if it wants to get on the board in SEC play in 2024.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
