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No Nick Saban? No problem. Georgia-Alabama is still awesome in my book.
On Saturday night, we’ll get a top-4 showdown between these 2 squads. It’ll mark the 6th time since the 2017 season that they faced off as top-4 teams. Just for a little context, that’s as many times as Michigan and Ohio State faced off as top-4 teams in the past 50 seasons. If you’re a college football fan, you must appreciate an elite showdown like this. Sorry. Those are the rules.
No. 2 Georgia is in position to make No. 4 Alabama a slight home underdog for the first time since 2007, AKA Saban’s first year. That year also marked the last time the Dawgs won in Tuscaloosa. Of course, they’ve only traveled to Alabama once since that Matthew Stafford-led thriller.
The start of the Kalen DeBoer era will be defined by what he does against Kirby Smart, who went 1-5 against Saban. DeBoer continuing UGA’s struggles against Alabama would send a loud message to the college football world that Alabama isn’t going anywhere. Alternatively, UGA rolling into Tuscaloosa and stomping the Tide would send a loud message to the college football world that Smart runs the show now in the post-Saban era.
Saban will indeed be in Tuscaloosa on Saturday with the College GameDay crew. We know his presence will be felt. The question is whether his presence on the sideline will be missed.
Let’s dig into it:
1. The Jalen Milroe-Kirby Smart rematch is what I’m here for
Earlier in the week, I wrote about how Milroe is trying to do something that only Joe Burrow did. That is, beat Smart twice. Both Burrow and Milroe faced Smart with different offenses with upgraded offensive minds in their ears. Burrow made quick work of Smart’s defense in the second matchup and turned a pro-UGA crowd at the SEC Championship into a sparse, but loud LSU contingent. If Milroe thrives as Burrow did, it’ll be a different story in front of what’s sure to be a raucous Bryant-Denny Stadium crowd.
Milroe got the last laugh in last year’s matchup with his arm and with his legs. When Alabama needed a touchdown drive in the final 10 minutes, Milroe attacked UGA with his arm. When Alabama needed to preserve a 3-point lead and prevent Georgia from getting the ball back in the final 2 minutes, Milroe attacked UGA with his legs.
One would think that in this DeBoer offense, Smart and Glenn Schumann will try to disguise some unique blitzes and defensive fronts to confuse Milroe. I’d expect a healthy dose of trying to get future All-SEC linebacker Jalon Walker on Kadyn Proctor. That’s advantage, Walker. But the best way to disrupt Milroe is finding ways to generate pressure on the interior of that defensive line. UGA defensive line coach Tray Scott doesn’t get enough credit for his ability to do that. Doing that against this Alabama interior offensive line, which is arguably the strength of the team, will be no small feat.
Last year’s SEC Championship should’ve debunked the notion that Milroe isn’t one of the best players in the sport. Somehow, it didn’t. Perhaps Milroe joining Burrow in the ever-exclusive “I beat Kirby twice” club would do that.
Oh, and doubling down on this comment about realizing that Georgia wasn’t ready for a 60-minute game would be quite the flex.
I hope Kirby is playing this non-stop. pic.twitter.com/o3G5Zf7DCr
— ℍ⚡️ (@HamDawg115) September 19, 2024
2. I ranked the best true road wins of the Kirby Smart era for a specific reason
This is going to sound like a knock on Smart, but I promise you it’s not. I believe Smart is the best coach in America and if he wins his 3rd title in 4 years, I’d put him on my Mount Rushmore of best coaches in college football history (Saban, Bear Bryant and Tom Osborne are the other 3).
But what would we consider to be the best win of the Smart era? Here are how I’d rank his 5 best road wins:
- 2017 at No. 24 Notre Dame
- 2019 at No. 13 Auburn
- 2018 at No. 11 Kentucky
- 2023 at No. 21 Tennessee
- 2018 at No. 24 South Carolina
By the way, I should’ve clarified. I based that on the stakes at the time of the matchup while trying to factor in what each of those teams became. As surprising as it was that the 2018 Kentucky team hosted UGA in an SEC Championship, it was also a squad that was coming off dogfight wins against Vandy and Mizzou. That Notre Dame win in 2017 was monumental not only because UGA made it Athens North, but also because the Irish got all the way to No. 3 in the Playoff rankings.
OK, back to why this needs to be brought up. Saturday wouldn’t just be the most impressive road win of the Smart era. It would be the most impressive road win of the Smart era by a country mile. For all the great things that Smart has done, he’s never beaten a top-10 team in a true road game. In his defense, he only had 2 cracks at it. The first was the 2017 beatdown loss at No. 10 Auburn and the other was … 2020 at No. 2 Alabama. Granted, the latter had a COVID-reduced crowd.
With that context, Saturday will mark the first time Smart will travel for a true road game against a top-10 team with a full crowd since 2017 Auburn (Saban was 8-3 in those matchups during his 17 seasons at Alabama). Blame the SEC East for that.
Whatever the case, a huge opportunity awaits.
3. Can the Alabama defensive line feast with Tate Ratledge out?
Seeing Ratledge leave the Kentucky game with multiple leg injuries was a tough blow for Georgia. That was the guy the Dawgs expected to be their anchor on the offensive line at the right guard spot, specifically in pass protection. The good news for UGA is that Micah Morris stepped up well in relief so far. In a game like this, though, Ratledge’s absence that could be the difference in keeping Carson Beck clean against Alabama’s interior defensive line, which has looked the part so far.
Tim Smith and Tim Keenan III have both gotten off to nice starts. The latter Tim took over against USF with 9 tackles, 2.5 TFLs and 1.5 sacks, which earned him SEC Defensive Lineman of the Week honors. Smith has also been a pivotal veteran presence on the side both in rushing the passer and stuffing the run. Those 2 guys are a huge reason why the Alabama defense owns the lowest 3rd-down conversion percentage allowed in FBS (16.3%).
Kane Wommack’s defense hasn’t gone up against an offense with as much firepower as Georgia’s, which will surely try to get the ball out of Beck’s hands quickly to test some of the back end of the Alabama defense. Alternatively, perhaps getting Trevor Etienne involved in the screen game would allow UGA to overcome a rare potential mismatch in the trenches.
Speaking of testing Alabama on the back end …
4. Alabama’s defense is averaging more yards/run (3.48) allowed than yards/pass (3.2) allowed
Yeah, it’s a small sample size. The majority of that sample size came against TJ Finley and a Wisconsin backup. I won’t crown the efficiency of Wommack’s unit just yet.
But, interestingly, Saban’s reasoning for not picking Alabama to reach the SEC Championship stemmed from the questions at secondary. The Tide lost both starting outside corners, Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold, to the NFL Draft and the well-documented departure of Caleb Downs to Ohio State made for a rare potential issue in Tuscaloosa. A relatively inexperienced group outside of captain Malachi Moore didn’t have the expertise of Saban to coach them up.
After 3 games, though, it’s fair to wonder if the Tide will continue that early-season success. Domani Jackson has been a welcome presence after transferring from USC, and along with Zabien Brown, teams haven’t really been able to test the new outside corners. Alabama and Georgia have each allowed just 1 20-yard completion this season, which is best in FBS. That’s the byproduct of safeties Keon Sabb and Moore looking like the strength of the roster.
Beck has yet to find that deep-ball success this year. Pushing the ball downfield and testing the Alabama secondary in ways that it hasn’t been yet feels like an essential box for Georgia to check if it wants to leave Tuscaloosa with a victory.
5. How UGA defends 17-year-old sensation Ryan Williams will be critical
Did you know that Williams is 17 years old? Or did you retain that fact after hearing it whenever he makes a catch?
RYAN WILLIAMS FOR THE TD
The 17-year-old puts @AlabamaFTBL out in front pic.twitter.com/Q2h2b59fd3
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 14, 2024
I’m searching for a non-creepy way to say “I can’t wait for that kid to turn 18” because sooner or later, we have to just acknowledge that he’s an exceptionally advanced football player without bringing up his age. Or at the very least, let’s just acknowledge that the reclassified true freshman is doing everything in his power to become the next Julio Jones/Amari Cooper. Through the first 3 games of his career, nobody has been able to keep Williams out of the end zone. He also leads the nation with 28.5 yards/catch.
He may have the advantage against Daylen Everette, who was expected to be UGA’s top outside corner. So far, though, that hasn’t necessarily been the case. He ranks last among SEC corners in yards allowed/target (via @SEC_StatCat).
As a result of that, we could see more of Julian Humphrey on Williams, who is tied for No. 2 in FBS with 4 catches of 40 yards having lined up on the outside receiver spot on 89% of his offensive snaps. Humphrey has been lights out in coverage so far. Ideally for either UGA outside corner, they’ll have the safety blanket of All-American Malaki Starks in coverage.
Go figure that a 17-year-old will be the toughest task of the young season. Er, a true freshman.
And a prediction … Georgia 31, Alabama 28
I realized that this is my 5th consecutive instance picking Georgia to beat Alabama. So far, I’ve only been right once. It’s about time to change that.
But here’s what I come back to. Georgia had a legacy-altering loss in that SEC Championship last year. Smart returned a wealth of experience from that squad, which should still have that bad taste in their mouths after how that played out. They can publicly say what they want about that. My guess? That’s provided some legitimate fuel this offseason. That’ll be evident with how fast UGA comes out in that atmosphere.
No, that doesn’t mean Alabama is destined to collapse under DeBoer. A loss here doesn’t wipe away the Tide’s Playoff path, and Milroe would still be my pick to win the Heisman Trophy. But I don’t know that Alabama has the chops to close out this version of Georgia. Unlike last year, when the Tide fended off the Dawgs by making seemingly every correct play down the stretch, that script flips this time.
After wondering if Georgia has some cracks in the foundation for its nail-biter win at Kentucky, the question shifts after Smart leaves Alabama with a victory.
Can anyone stop Georgia in a post-Saban world?
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
