It would be somewhat historic if it happened.

In 9 of the past 17 seasons, an SEC player won the Heisman Trophy. Mind you, the previous SEC winner before Tim Tebow became the first sophomore to claim the award in 2007 was when fellow Florida quarterback Danny Wuerffel took it home 11 years earlier in 1996, and it was Wuerffel who became the first SEC player to win the award in 11 years when Bo Jackson earned the 1985 Heisman. From 1935-2006, the SEC only had 7 Heisman winners.

So yeah, it would be somewhat historic because a 17-year run is still relatively recent history for an award that’s been around for nearly a century.

But I’m not referring to the SEC not producing a Heisman winner in 2024. I’m talking about the increasingly likely scenario that no SEC player even earns a trip to New York as a finalist, which looks like a real possibility based on the current odds with Carson Beck as the highest-listed SEC player at +3500 (No. 6). If you can find anyone who has an SEC player on the short list of current candidates, consider that the extreme minority.

That would indeed be somewhat historic if it happened.

The last time that happened was in 2017. Go figure that ended up being a season in which Georgia and Alabama played in the College Football Playoff National Championship. Anti-SEC narratives, be damned. Failing to send a player to New York is hardly a sign that a conference is down. It just means there wasn’t an individual who had that elite season.

In those 17 years — it doesn’t feel like a coincidence that it exactly coincided with Nick Saban’s time at Alabama — here are all the instances in which the SEC failed to send a player to New York for the Heisman ceremony:

  •  2016 — Highest SEC Heisman finisher: No. 7, Alabama DL Jonathan Allen
  •  2017 — Highest SEC Heisman finisher: No. 9, Auburn RB Kerryon Johnson

Note that neither player was a quarterback. Usually if the top SEC Heisman candidate is a quarterback, he’s at least getting to New York.

But with a month left, no one in the SEC has even emerged as the best quarterback. The race for All-SEC spots at the position feels completely wide open, especially after Garrett Nussmeier collapsed down the stretch at Texas A&M on Saturday (he’s now not even in the top 10 in the latest Heisman odds).

Pin that on relatively disappointing starts from preseason candidates like Beck and Jaxson Dart, as well as another multi-game injury to Quinn Ewers. Dart and fellow preseason favorite Jalen Milroe might be the last remaining SEC quarterbacks who can check those statistical boxes, but with 2 conference losses for preseason top-10 teams that will likely miss the conference championship, that climb just to get to New York might be too steep.

Each of the 8 QBs who won the award in the Playoff era had at least 45 pre-Heisman touchdowns and the last QB to have fewer than 40 pre-Heisman touchdowns was 2006 Troy Smith, who shouldn’t have won the award in the first place. He won only because Darren McFadden was only a sophomore at a time when an underclassman had never won the Heisman.

Milroe and Nussmeier are the only SEC quarterbacks who have a 13-game pace of 40 total touchdowns. Here’s the 13-game touchdown pace for the current SEC quarterback leaders in that department:

  • Nussmeier: 42.7 TDs
  • Milroe: 40.6 TDs
  • Dart: 29.3 TDs
  • Beck: 27.9 TDs
  • Diego Pavia: 27.6 TDs

For what it’s worth, Pavia might not have the statistical profile of other Heisman candidates, but he could have the best case to get to New York of anyone because of what he’s done for a Vandy program that just played its first regular-season game as an AP Top 25 team since 2008. The problem is that his 2 marquee games were in October. Unless Vandy goes 8-4 and knocks off Tennessee to shake up the Playoff picture, Pavia likely won’t have the support needed to be 1 of the top 4 vote-getters with him currently sitting at +25,000 in the latest odds (remember that it’s now the top 4 vote-getters who earn a New York invite).

Shoot, it’s telling that the last remaining SEC team that’s unbeaten in conference play (Texas A&M) has had multiple quarterback changes already. And just in case you needed context about why Marcel Reed isn’t getting to New York beyond the statistical profile, remember that Charlie Ward is the only Heisman winner in the past 40 years who missed a regular-season game against a Power Conference opponent.

So if sending a quarterback to New York isn’t likely, could a non-QB from the SEC earn an invite? That can’t be ruled out, but the odds are slim.

The best case would’ve been for Ole Miss receiver Tre Harris, but the injury he suffered in the LSU game sidelined him against Oklahoma. For an Ole Miss team that already has 2 losses, getting a 13th game is now extremely unlikely. Harris would need to return, stay healthy and have several 200-yard games down the stretch to become the 5th receiver to get a New York invite in the Playoff era.

What about Tennessee tailback Dylan Sampson? You could make a strong case that he’s the SEC’s most valuable non-quarterback. He’s been the backbone of Tennessee’s suddenly 1-dimensional offense. Sampson already has more rushing touchdowns than any SEC player since Najee Harris in 2020, and his 13-game pace of 31.6 rushing touchdowns would break Derrick Henry’s single-season conference record (note that Henry had 28 rushing scores in 15 games en route to the 2015 Heisman).

But those odds still aren’t working in Sampson’s favor. His +12,000 odds are No. 19 in FBS, and he’s somehow tied with teammate Nico Iamaleava, even though Sampson has been the far superior player. Telling. Remember, since Henry won the award, 2017 Bryce Love is the only running back who earned a New York invite. Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Chuba Hubbard, Bijan Robinson, Travis Etienne and the aforementioned Najee Harris are just a few of the elite running backs in that stretch who didn’t earn a Heisman invite.

Even if Sampson fuels a win at Georgia and gets Tennessee to the SEC Championship, history suggests it’s more likely is that he finishes on the outside of that top 4 (I’ll bang the drum for Sampson’s credentials if that plays out).

So if it’s not Sampson, Harris or any of those aforementioned SEC quarterbacks, could anyone else emerge? It doesn’t seem likely. No SEC defensive player has odds. Even if Nic Scourton goes on a historic rampage as the clear best player for an SEC champ A&M squad, it’s hard to imagine anyone making that case when 2021 Will Anderson couldn’t even get to New York with 32 tackles for loss and 15 sacks pre-Heisman.

That’s why the SEC lacking New York representation now feels like the most likely scenario. In a weird way, though, it could develop into a quietly advantageous scenario in this new era of the 12-team Playoff. The ceremony will be held on Saturday, Dec. 14, and the first round of the Playoff kicks off just 6 days later on Friday, Dec. 20. We could see Heisman Trophy invitees who have to decide between traveling to New York or hanging back to prep for the following Friday-Saturday.

Weird times, indeed. Somewhat historic times await.