I know. I’m an idiot.

You disagree with my preseason takes, and after reading this, you’ll tell me how much you disagree with them, bookmark this and circle back if I get something wrong.

But here we are. Doing that thing once again.

The preseason All-SEC ballot I’ll submit this week at SEC Media Days is largely based on last year. I’m not predicting who I think will earn that honor at season’s end. It’s based on what players have already shown.

I believe players like Carson Beck or Maason Smith will finish as All-SEC players. But can I put them on the preseason all-conference team based on how small of a sample size we have of them against SEC competition? I can’t.

Maybe I’m a bit of traditionalist, but I default to what I’ve seen in actual competition. So if I leave a guy off a preseason All-SEC team, it isn’t that I’m doubting who they could become. It’s that I’m rewarding what we’ve seen.

Does that make sense? OK, let’s start with my preseason first-team All-SEC ballot and then we’ll get to my predicted order of finish for the 2023 season.

Offense

  • QB — KJ Jefferson, Arkansas
  • RB — Quinshon Judkins, Ole Miss
  • RB — Rocket Sanders, Arkansas
  • WR — Malik Nabers, LSU
  • WR — Antwane “Juice” Wells, South Carolina
  • TE — Brock Bowers, Georgia
  • OL — Sedrick Van Pran, Georgia
  • OL — Javon Foster, Mizzou
  • OL —Beaux Limmer, Arkansas
  • OL — JC Latham, Alabama
  • OL — Brady Latham, Arkansas
  • AP — Ladd McConkey, Georgia

Defense

  • DL — Mekhi Wingo, LSU
  • DL — Mykel Williams, Georgia
  • DL — Desmond Watson, Florida
  • DL — McKinnley Jackson, A&M
  • LB — Harold Perkins, LSU
  • LB — Dallas Turner, Alabama
  • LB — Jamon Dumas-Johnson, Georgia
  • DB — Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
  • DB — Malaki Starks, Georgia
  • DB — Nick Emmanwori, South Carolina
  • DB — Javon Bullard, Georgia

Specialists

  • PK — Will Reichard, Alabama
  • P — Kai Kroger, South Carolina
  • RS — Lideatrick Griffin, Mississippi State

Some thoughts on that …

Have I mentioned that I really wanted to include Maason Smith as a preseason first-team guy? I just can’t yet. I instead went with the 415-pound Desmond Watson, who was one of the saving graces of Year 1 under Billy Napier. Florida had so few guys who could plug the run game, and he was a menace on the interior defensive line.

McKinnley Jackson delivered a full season’s worth of production, and I’m not sure how many people noticed how good he was because of how bad A&M was. His return was a huge boost for an A&M defensive front that should be significantly improved.

I thought picking the linebackers was pretty obvious, but defensive back was a bit tricky after McKinstry and Starks, both of whom are preseason All-Americans virtually everywhere. I went with Emmanwori, who exploded as a playmaker during his true freshman season at South Carolina, and Bullard, who went on an absolute tear in Georgia’s postseason run.

On offense, I’ve already got a full breakdown of my quarterback decision, so I won’t elaborate too much on that. But as great as Jayden Daniels was down the stretch, I thought Jefferson showed with less favorable surroundings that he’s a more versatile, reliable player.

Running back and receiver shouldn’t really have much of a debate. And if you still have Jermaine Burton as a preseason All-SEC guy — his selection on this team last year was maddening — I can’t help you. The no-brainers on the offensive line were Van Pran, Foster and Limmer. I debated the 2 Lathams (no relation) and LSU sophomore Will Campbell for that final spot. As incredible as it was to see Campbell do what he did as a true freshman left tackle, I defaulted to the more experienced players.

Shall we get to some order of finish predictions? Let’s do it:

SEC East predicted order of finish

  1. Georgia
  2. South Carolina
  3. Tennessee
  4. Kentucky
  5. Mizzou
  6. Florida
  7. Vanderbilt

SEC West predicted order of finish

  1. Alabama
  2. LSU
  3. A&M
  4. Arkansas
  5. Mississippi State
  6. Ole Miss
  7. Auburn

SEC Championship

  • Georgia 35, Alabama 24

Is it finally bold to say that Alabama will win the West? Eh, probably not. The Tide have been picked to win the West in each of the past 10 preseason media polls (Auburn was picked to win the SEC in 2015 but Alabama was still the pick to win the West). I have no problem with anyone picking LSU to win the division. After all, the Tigers are the defending division champs and they return with fewer questions than Alabama.

But I have a hard time pouring dirt on the Alabama grave. Why? In the past 3 instances that Alabama wasn’t picked to win the SEC (2009, 2012 and 2015), not only did it do that, but it went on to win a national title. That’s the “yummy rat poison” Nick Saban loves. And while there are legitimate questions about the quarterback room, this could be a vintage Alabama defense along with a prolific, multi-faceted ground attack under new OC Tommy Rees.

The love for A&M might seem a bit far-fetched, but remember that the Aggies addressed their biggest area of concern — offensive play-calling. The Bobby Petrino marriage might end in divorce, but in the meantime, the Aggies have all the offensive pieces to make that thing go. The offensive line should look like the 2020 group who led a top-5 finish, and the Ainias Smith return should solidify an extremely promising group of pass-catchers for Conner Weigman to work with. A&M returns the highest percentage of production among SEC teams and is No. 7 in FBS in that stat.

I really don’t think there’s much separation between 3 through  7 in the West, and honestly, it was tough settling on a last-place team. I believe Hugh Freeze has done tremendous things in the transfer portal to elevate the floor of Auburn in Year 1. But depth is going to be an issue that could plague the Tigers after a promising start.

Is it possible that the West is loaded with a whole lot of 3-5 and 4-4 conference records? Absolutely.

As for the East, sure, I got a little bold with a South Carolina team that I have major questions about in the trenches. It’d be nice to see the Gamecocks rank in the top 90 either in rushing offense or rushing defense. And it’d also be nice to see Spencer Rattler put together an entire season. I’m not saying either of those are imminent to happen, but I’m bullish for a few reasons. I liked the non-splashy Dowell Loggains addition, and think the Gamecocks should have a much more consistent offense. That, combined with the ever-effective special teams under Shane Beamer, will net the Gamecocks a winning record in conference play … and a win at Tennessee.

Speaking of the Vols, this looks like I’m bailing and saying 2022 was a one-off. I’m not. Getting to 8-4 with potentially win No. 9 in a bowl game could still be a sign that the Vols have elevated their floor under Josh Heupel. But I worry about the consistency of Joe Milton and his ability to be the backbone of a program that’s been inconsistent defensively these past 2 years.

And with Kentucky, the schedule is brutal. Not the first half. The last 5 games are vs. Tennessee, at Mississippi State, vs. Alabama, at South Carolina and at Louisville. Even going 2-3 would feel like a bit of a win there, and that finish doesn’t include a trip to Athens earlier in the season.

If Kentucky, Tennessee and South Carolina all go 8-4 in the regular season, it wouldn’t be particularly surprising. In fact, I think it’s pretty likely.

Oh, I almost forgot. Georgia will be the pick to win the SEC for the first time since 2004.

Nobody is disrespecting the Dawgs here.