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Hey, what’s the best part of the NCAA Tournament? Filling out a bracket and pretending like you’re the mastermind of chaos.
Ergo, the best part of the 12-team College Football Playoff will be filling out a bracket and pretending like you’re the mastermind of chaos. Duh.
That’s what we get to do on an annual basis now. Fortunately for us, the first-round byes will likely prevent us all from ripping up our brackets on the first day.
Not so fortunate for me, I’m willing to share my bracket with you, reader of this column. Surely that won’t come back to bite me.
Here’s how I see the 2024 College Football Playoff playing out:
First Round
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas
Winner — Texas
It’s not that Clemson will get blown out against a Texas offense that’s been a bit more middling than what an 11-2 record would suggest. But Cade Klubnik against this Texas defense is the troubling matchup. Georgia might’ve had brief success with Gunner Stockton as the more mobile quarterback, but fresh on the minds of many should be what the Longhorns and their No. 1 pass defense did to Marcel Reed at Texas A&M. As in, they pitched a shutout. Texas wins a low-scoring game.
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
Winner — Ohio State
If I knew that we were getting a healthy version of Tennessee, my mindset would be different. But after the rash of skill-player injuries in the Vanderbilt game, I’m skeptical that the Vols will be fortunate on that front. And while Ohio State has injuries to worry about on the offensive line, the Buckeyes can do enough defensively to frustrate Nico Iamaleava and take advantage of some short fields.
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State
Winner — Penn State
If you close your eyes, you can picture Penn State winning by 3 touchdowns and hearing Alabama fans claim that they would’ve put up a better fight … even though the Tide lost 3 of 4 SEC road games. Drew Allar continues to progress and Penn State is fortunate it has some offensive versatility to combat that impressive SMU run defense.
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame
Winner — Notre Dame
We watched Indiana struggle against the 2 best defenses it faced. With all due respect to a Will Johnson-less Michigan defense and a Caleb Downs-led Ohio State defense, Notre Dame has an even better secondary. That unit is more than capable of making Kurtis Rourke pay. The Irish don’t put their foot on the gas quite like Ohio State did against Indiana, but a 27-20 victory in the Hoosier State goes to the home team.
Quarterfinals
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State (Peach Bowl)
Winner — Texas
I have more confidence in Texas’ defense than any other unit in this Playoff field. Even in those Georgia losses, that group was by no means a pushover. It let up 4 yards/play in those contests, which is exactly what it allowed all year. That’s significant against the 1-2 punch of Cam Skattebo and Sam Leavitt. Texas finds a way to continue that efficiency enough to pull out a 27-24 thriller with a walk-off field goal from Bert Auburn … in the same building where Texas lost on a walk-off to Georgia in the SEC Championship.
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon (Rose Bowl)
Winner — Ohio State
Beating a team twice is incredibly difficult. Beating a team that’s perhaps embracing the “us against the world” mentality in a very un-Ohio State-like fashion is even more difficult. Instead of Oregon looking like the well-rested team, it faces a Chip Kelly-led attack (ironic) that finds balance that Oregon hasn’t faced all year. Instead of Will Howard letting the clock run out on a comeback attempt, he gets redemption with a 2-minute drive for the ages to send Ohio State to the semifinal.
No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State (Fiesta Bowl)
Winner — Boise State
It’s not just the Ashton Jeanty show. Boise State has an opportunistic defense that lives in backfields. It can overwhelm quarterbacks with the pressure it dials up. That turns into one of the more frustrating days of Allar’s career. Instead of taking advantage of a unit that’s been a bit more vulnerable against the pass, Boise State looks like a team that did nothing but use the extra time to dial up the right pressure packages to frustrate Penn State. And of course, Jeanty does the rest.
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (Sugar Bowl)
Winner — Georgia
No matter who plays quarterback for UGA, I’d be terrified of that matchup against the Notre Dame secondary. That should favor the Irish. So how does Georgia prevail? After Notre Dame sprints out to a 2-score lead, Georgia does what it’s been doing throughout this strange season — it settles in and finds a way. A 17-3 deficit turns into a 20-17 win thanks to multiple Trevor Etienne scores. UGA beats Notre Dame for the third time in the Playoff era.
Semifinals
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 8 Ohio State
Winner — Texas
The Quinn Ewers revenge game! Well, sort of. Ewers doesn’t necessarily dazzle against the Ohio State defense. Multiple turnovers prompts Steve Sarkisian to turn to Arch Manning in the middle of the third quarter. And what does Manning do? He leads Texas on a comeback to erase a 21-10 deficit. A pair of Manning touchdown drives stuns Ohio State, who thought it was in the clear after beating Oregon. Texas gets to the place it fell just short of last year.
No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Winner — Georgia
There’s a world in which UGA’s run defense looks like it did at points late in the season and Jeanty is too much for the Dawgs and their inconsistent ways. But on that stage, one would be foolish not to trust Kirby Smart. A rested Georgia defense delivers an impressive showing. For one of the first times all year, Jeanty can’t deliver that back-breaking long run. Georgia, meanwhile, finds holes in the Boise State secondary and finally gets an impressive showing from its drop-happy pass-catchers. Dawgs end the 1-year drought and get back to a title game.
Championship
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 2 Georgia (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
Winner — Georgia
Yeah, let’s run it back again. What’s the only thing that’s tougher than beating a team twice? Beating a team 3 times. But Smart has Sarkisian’s number. Even after Manning’s semifinal brilliance, Texas’ offense continues to struggle to string scoring drives together against Georgia. Once again, the UGA defensive front and Etienne do the heavy lifting. It’s not quite the performance that the game in Austin was, nor is it quite as bizarre as the SEC Championship was, but that doesn’t matter. A pair of pick-sixes, including one by Ewers’ boogeyman Daylen Everette, is the difference. The Dawgs somehow do it again.
A dynasty? Absolutely.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
