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You can say that it doesn’t matter, but the Tuesday night Playoff Polls are at least getting more interesting.
Following a Saturday that was loaded with chaos after 7 teams inside the top 20 fell, we should see some significant shakeups. How far does Indiana fall? How far do the 3-loss teams fall? Is there a case for Georgia to be ranked ahead of Miami?
We’ll get answers to all of those questions on Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET (note the slight schedule change).
Here’s what I think the top 12 will look like:
12. Alabama
Let’s fire up the masses here. No, I don’t think Alabama has a Playoff path. Yes, I do think that ended in Norman. But could we see the Tide as the first team out at No. 12? Absolutely. Remember, even at No. 12, the Big 12 champ would jump the Tide and get into the field as 1 of the 5 highest-ranked conference champs. The Tide have nice wins, but 2 of those 3 losses came vs. teams who have 5 losses. That’s what’ll keep the Tide out of the first 12-team Playoff.
11. SMU
SMU already punched its ticket to the ACC Championship, so it’ll still have a Playoff path even if it loses this weekend against Cal. But obviously, any path to SMU earning an at-large berth will come down to getting to the ACC Championship with 1 loss and staying on the field with Miami or Clemson. Why? Is it ACC bias? Eh, I’d say it’s more the fact that SMU’s best win is an overtime victory against unranked Duke. Note the significance of that if SMU is still 1 spot behind Boise State.
10. Boise State
A nail-biter victory at 2-win Wyoming won’t send a loud message that the Broncos are elite, but because of that chaos inside the top 10, Boise State should be in a nice position to hold that “first-round bye” slot as 1 of the 4 highest-ranked conference champs (that’s based on current projections). As long as Boise State avoids slipping up as a 3-touchdown favorite against Oregon State, a first-round bye could be on the table.
9. Indiana
How far will the Hoosiers fall? Not as far as they could’ve fallen. They can thank Alabama and Ole Miss for that. Seven of the top 20 teams fell, 1 of those being IU in a lopsided game against Ohio State. Working in IU’s favor is the fact that it avoided the chaotic loss. This year, that feels significant. Notre Dame, Miami, Tennessee and Alabama all have losses to unranked teams. Indiana, with a selection committee that decided it valued “strength of loss,” has the Ohio State loss, but is +142 in Big Ten play. That’ll keep IU inside the top 10.
8. Tennessee
Tennessee fans Gator chomped at Neyland on Saturday. If that’s not a sign of the apocalypse/new Playoff era, I don’t know what is. Whatever the case, the Vols benefitted more than anybody from all that chaos. Now with 2 losses, they can all but clinch a Playoff spot by beating … Vandy. Never say never, especially when it comes to facing Diego Pavia. Still, though. Tennessee should be no lower than No. 9 after Indiana, Alabama and Ole Miss all fell.
7. Georgia
Three double-digit wins by teams currently ranked in the top 12 of the AP Poll … yeah. UGA should be the top-ranked 2-loss team. There shouldn’t be any debate about that after Ole Miss AND Alabama both suffered loss No. 3 to an unranked team. UGA should be in the field if it beats Georgia Tech. That’s right. Even if the Dawgs lose in the SEC Championship for loss No. 3, it would still be more worthy of teams ranked behind them heading into conference championship weekend. Ideally for UGA, that situation doesn’t present itself.
6. Miami (FL)
The Canes might not have a win against a current AP Top 25 team, but something is working in their favor. Ready for it? Here’s the entire list of Power Conference teams with 0-1 loss:
- Oregon
- Ohio State
- Texas
- Penn State
- Notre Dame
- Miami
- SMU
- Indiana
Miami being 6th among those 8 teams isn’t saying much when the 2 teams with 0-1 losses behind him are also in need of a win against a current AP Top 25 team. With Miami being 2 spots ahead of Georgia in last week’s poll, I’d expect that to continue. Could Miami still make the Playoff with a loss to Syracuse? That’s an interesting discussion. But with a win Saturday to clinch an ACC Championship berth, that should be enough for the Canes.
5. Notre Dame
The Irish are 1 win away from overcoming the worst loss we’ve ever seen from a Playoff team. How about that? Sure, their wins aren’t anything earth-shattering since that loss, but the win at A&M still is holding up well even after the Aggies suffered loss No. 3 at 6-loss Auburn. Including No. 25 Army, that’s 2 double-digit wins against current AP Top 25 teams for Notre Dame. If the Irish avoid a letdown as a touchdown favorite at USC, it’ll be in the field.
4. Penn State
Avoiding loss No. 2 at Minnesota was significant. Was it significant enough to move past Texas? Probably not. But the Lions are a victory against 4-win Maryland from likely hosting a home Playoff game. That’s on the table even though Penn State has 1 win vs. a current AP Top 25 team (No. 22 Illinois). Clearly, though, the selection committee values the Ohio State loss. That’s all that matters for a 1-loss Penn State team.
3. Texas
What’s a metric that favors Texas at No. 3? This:
Wins over bowl-eligible teams heading into the final weekend of the season …
Texas 7
Notre Dame 6
Penn State 6
Alabama 6
Ohio State 5
Boise State 5
Miami 5
SMU 5
Ole Miss 5
South Carolina 4
Georgia 4
Oregon 4
Arizona State 3
Tennessee 3
Indiana 3
Tulane 3Clemson 1
— Brad Crawford (@BCrawford247) November 25, 2024
That’s better than anything else you could say about Texas’ résumé. With the chaos we had this past weekend, I’d argue that the Longhorns are already in. Would a blowout loss at A&M drop them 9 spots throughout the next 2 rankings? I don’t think so. But Texas could potentially clinch a first-round bye at worst with a win in College Station to reach the SEC Championship. That would be an impressive Year 1 in the SEC.
2. Ohio State
The Buckeyes got their second win against a team that’s currently in the AP Top 10. That’s why the Buckeyes might already be in the Playoff, regardless of how Saturday against Michigan plays out. They separated themselves from Texas by clubbing Indiana. While the Buckeyes’ résumé is better, the selection committee doesn’t have to get cute and entertain the idea that Ohio State should be ranked ahead of Oregon because of the head-to-head.
1. Oregon
“Congrats, Oregon. You’re going to Indianapolis!”
The Big Ten said … 3 days after it was clinched. Incredible. The Ducks can lose the next 2 games and still have a Playoff spot. That doesn’t seem particularly likely. More likely is the Ducks will beat Washington to end the 3-game losing streak in the rivalry — Kalen DeBoer isn’t walking through that door — and go into the Big Ten Championship with the chance to earn the No. 1 seed or the No. 5 seed. That’s not a bad place to be in late November.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
