O'Gara: Revisiting my preseason SEC Crystal Balls ... where did I whiff the most?

I’m not perfect. Far from it, in fact.

The day that I write about nailing every pick I made will be when the robots get us, and I’ll have been programmed so it won’t really count. Until that day comes, I’ll just keep making SEC Crystal Ball predictions with moderate levels of success … and some colossal failure.

Every August, I predict every game an SEC team will play. I offer up a rundown of how I think it’ll play out, but all anyone will remember is what I predicted for each team’s final record.

(I encourage everyone that roots for an SEC team to do that. If you tell me why your team will have a certain record and I’m an idiot, you’re well within your rights to do so. I would just recommend going through and mapping out every game played by an SEC team and you’ll realize that not everyone can go 10-2.)

Today, we’ll revisit those picks. Some were spot on (LSU), some were slightly off (Texas A&M) and others were a total whiff (Mizzou).

Here are my crystal balls compared to how each team finished:

All in all, that’s not so terrible. I had half the teams in the conference within 1 game of where they finished, with exact overall predictions for Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU and Tennessee.

But I’m not about to pat myself on the back with a full breakdown of all the picks I got right. So here’s an explanation as to why I whiffed so horribly on a few of these:

Biggest whiffs

Mizzou

My prediction — 6-6

How they finished — 10-2

Where I went wrong — Um … everywhere?

My big thing was that I thought it was a total unknown how Kirby Moore would look running this offense. I didn’t have much faith in Brady Cook, and while I was intrigued by the skill players, I didn’t see them taking off. Boy, was I wrong. Not only did Cody Schrader and Luther Burden III play at an All-American level, but Cook was probably a top-15 signal-caller in the sport. I was dead wrong about that.

Blake Baker’s defense was even better than I imagined, as well. I didn’t anticipate Mizzou finishing in the top half of the SEC in scoring defense. That experienced group played at a high level for most of the season, and it allowed Mizzou to beat teams in a variety of ways. That’s ultimately why Eli Drinkwitz has the Tigers in their first New Year’s 6 bowl instead of playing in another 6-6 postseason game.

Ole Miss

My prediction — 6-6

How they finished — 10-2

Where I went wrong — Can I just copy and paste my Mizzou projection here? Yikes. I knew it was bad when Lane Kiffin called out my Crystal Ball and said it wasn’t exactly rat poison to have his squad going 6-6 with a loss to Vandy. In my defense, I did have Ole Miss beating LSU. That did actually happen. I also had Ole Miss giving Georgia its toughest game of the regular season … which definitely didn’t happen.

So where was I wrong? Jaxson Dart was far better against quality competition than I gave him credit for, and while Pete Golding’s defense was a bit up and down, it still put together its best finish among SEC teams (6th) since 2014. Couple that with the fact that Quinshon Judkins overcame a slow start and shook off the “sophomore slump” narrative and yeah, I can say with certainty that I underestimated Ole Miss, who is New Year’s 6 bowl-bound after tying its program record with 10 regular-season wins. No rat poison, indeed.

Arkansas

My prediction — 8-4

How they finished — 4-8

Where I went wrong — Two words. Dan Enos. I whiffed on thinking that Enos would be an ideal fit to work with KJ Jefferson. Enos was so bad that he got canned after 8 games. Meanwhile, poor Jefferson was a sitting duck behind a horrendous offensive line. That’s another major whiff. I assumed that when Sam Pittman shared his concerns in the preseason about that offensive line, he’d be the perfect person to develop that group. Boy, was I wrong.

Arkansas gave its home fans a disastrous year; it didn’t beat a single Power 5 foe in Fayetteville. It wasn’t Chad Morris levels of awful because it’s not like a Ty Storey-led Western Kentucky came into Arkansas and blew the Hogs out. But in terms of fan apathy, it wasn’t far from that. It was so bad that not only did Arkansas fans clamor for a return of Bobby Petrino, but they actually got their wish. By all accounts, it was a stunning season for Arkansas.

South Carolina

My prediction — 8-4

How they finished — 5-7

Where I went wrong — I overlooked the lack of depth that South Carolina had at key spots on the offensive line and in the secondary. Those issues really plagued the Gamecocks at different points this season. While my faith in Spencer Rattler and the Dowell Loggains hire actually turned out to be justified, Shane Beamer’s squad just had too many other deficiencies to overcome every week in SEC play. Juice Wells’ injury prevented South Carolina from having 2020 Ole Miss vibes as a high-powered offense with a lackluster defense.

Let me backtrack.

I don’t think I overlooked those weaknesses. I was well aware of them. I just felt like South Carolina, given what we’ve seen from Beamer’s ability to win as an underdog, would have a good chance of overcoming those weaknesses. Call it “Beamer Ball” or just that South Carolina had typically found a way to punch above its weight. That didn’t happen this year. South Carolina’s lone win as an underdog came against 7-5 Kentucky, though that game felt like a coin flip. How frustrating was Year 3 for the Gamecocks and their depth? Even Beamer was on the shelf with a broken bone in his foot after kicking a Gatorade cooler in the postgame locker room. Yep. That says it all.

Mississippi State

My prediction — 8-4

How they finished — 5-7

Where I went wrong — Woof. For starters, I thought the Kevin Barbay transition away from the Mike Leach Air Raid would take time. I eventually thought it would work. Maybe the midseason Will Rogers/Woody Marks injuries derailed those chances, but there wasn’t a ton to like outside of a banner day against a woeful South Carolina pass defense. Zach Arnett hired Barbay in hopes that his efficient, more pro-style offense would allow the Gamecocks to play complementary football. That didn’t happen. Instead, Arnett’s defense lacked the help it needed, which was a shame when you consider how good Jett Johnson and Bookie Watson were.

At the time of the hire, I thought there would be a bit of patience with Arnett. After all, he was a decorated coordinator who took over a situation that Mississippi State hadn’t planned for. In reality, a new athletic director coming in after Arnett was promoted meant that a team-friendly buyout was an easy price to pay to move on. Had Arnett won 3 SEC games instead of 1, he would’ve been back in 2024. Instead, he won arguably the most unwatchable SEC game of the year — a 7-3 win at Arkansas — and the conference’s youngest head coach in 14 years was gone after 10 games.

Swing and a miss all around.