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I don’t care what the spreads say. It’s loaded. Absolutely loaded.
It’s the type of SEC slate that we think about in the middle of May when there’s nothing on our TV but regular-season baseball and playoff hoops. Meh.
This Week 7 slate? It’s not meh. It’s got loads of potential, which is saying a lot after the weekend we just saw. We’ve got the Red River Rivalry, we’ve got a suddenly vulnerable Alabama team facing a frisky South Carolina squad, plus Florida and Tennessee and a top-15 showdown between Ole Miss and LSU.
Elite, it is.
Here’s what to watch for in Week 7:
South Carolina vs. No. 7 Alabama — South Carolina’s offense should be what the doctor ordered for Alabama’s defense, but there’s a “but.”
In theory, Alabama facing any human not named “Diego Pavia” will be a welcome sight. Also, in theory, facing a South Carolina offense that’s No. 14 in the SEC in both scoring and yards/play should be a welcome sight for the reeling Tide defense. But in actuality, facing a mobile quarterback has been the common denominator in Alabama’s 2 bad games of 2024. LaNorris Sellers will add to that. Sellers ranks No. 2 among SEC quarterbacks (behind Pavia) with 13.8 rushing attempts per game.
In other words, South Carolina can make it difficult for the Tide to get off the field on 3rd down, which plagued an undisciplined Tide attack in the stunning loss at Vandy. Losing as a 3-touchdown favorite in consecutive weeks would be unthinkable, but after the way Pavia controlled the game against Alabama, everything is on the table.
No. 21 Mizzou vs. UMass — This is one of the weirdest SEC road trips of all-time
Credit UMass athletic director Ryan Bamford for somehow convincing former Mizzou athletic director Jim Sterk to travel up to Hadley, Mass. to play this game back in 2019. Bamford getting Mizzou to agree on a home-and-home is one of the most phenomenal feats of our time. Mizzou is the only Core 4 team who’ll travel to UMass for the rest of the 2020s decade. Instead of Mizzou spending 7 figures on a money game to host UMass — like the rest of the SEC — Bamford talked the Tigers into playing this game, and not even at Gillette Stadium, where the Minutemen have “hosted” Power 5 teams 90 minutes away from campus. It’ll play at the UMass home stadium, which is among the worst in FBS:
I’ve been to over 100 college football stadiums
I say with full confidence this is the worst one in the country pic.twitter.com/G9EQDcGn2v
— GFed (@GfedGoCrazy) July 5, 2024
The crazy thing is that if Mizzou had been able to win in College Station, that venue would’ve hosted a top-10 team. As it stands, Luther Burden III is too good to play on that field. According to The Daily Hampshire Gazette, Bamford got someone at Mizzou who used to work at UMass to vouch for the facilities. That’s why UMass is truly hosting Mizzou and not playing at Gillette Stadium. The only thing more stunning than UMass scheduling this game would be if it can win as a 4-touchdown underdog. If that happens, Bamford might consider a last-minute presidential run. Or at the very least, a lottery ticket.
No. 1 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma (in Dallas) – Quinn Ewers needs redemption
Last year’s game against Oklahoma was the only real knock on Texas’ season. It was a game in which Ewers turned the ball over 3 times and watched Dillon Gabriel have the best moment of his career. Gabriel is gone, and while the Oklahoma situation certainly is at a different spot last year, Ewers winning his personal grudge match against Oklahoma — let’s not forget he led a beatdown of the Sooners in 2022 — is huge for his legacy and Texas’ season.
Brent Venables’ defense perplexed Ewers at key moments of that game, which completely overshadowed the fact that Ewers completed 31 of 37 passes for 346 yards. Coming off the oblique injury, Ewers’ return to the lineup will be magnified even more with the college football world already drooling over Arch Manning. This is a chance for Ewers to have the last laugh on Oklahoma and perhaps put Texas in the driver’s seat for a trip to Atlanta as the SEC’s last remaining unbeaten.
Mississippi State vs. No. 5 Georgia — If not now, then when for a fast UGA start?
With all due respect to Mississippi State, but the Year 0 Jeff Lebby squad earned its place in the SEC cellar. Georgia finally ended its streak of trailing in the 1st quarter vs. SEC competition, which dated back to last October, but it still has yet to score multiple times in the first quarter against FBS competition in 2024. In those 4 games, teams outscored UGA in the 1st quarter by a combined 27-7. Yeah, just 7 points in 4 1st quarters vs. FBS teams. That’s a problem. The opening script from Mike Bobo hasn’t been good enough, and the UGA passing game as a whole hasn’t been crisp from the jump.
At home against a Mississippi State team that ranks No. 110 in FBS in yards/play allowed, that has to change. Mississippi State is dead last among Core 4 teams in QB rating allowed (158.1) and it ranks No. 122 in FBS in 3rd-down conversion percentage allowed. If there was ever a time for UGA’s offense to find its groove early, this is it.
Florida vs. No. 8 Tennessee — The Vols need to figure out their offensive issues in a hurry
Yes, Tennessee played solid defenses on the road to start SEC play. Oklahoma and Arkansas both deserve a ton of credit for the job they did responding to the Vols’ tempo and not letting Nico Iamaleava’s star blossom before their eyes. But for Josh Heupel, now is the time to get right. Florida’s defense might be coming off its best outing of the season by containing the UCF rushing attack, but that doesn’t mean Tennessee will have an excuse if it can’t find its offensive rhythm for the 3rd consecutive game.
Here are Florida’s defensive ranks in FBS:
- No. 67 in yards/play allowed
- No. 74 in scoring defense
- No. 100 in opposing QB rating
- No. 101 in run defense
- No. 104 in 20-yard scrimmage plays allowed
- No. 106 in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed
- No. 109 in turnovers gained
The Gators haven’t shown that they can be a consistent defense throughout the entire 2020s decade. Even if Tennessee is banged up at receiver, there’s no reason why the Vols shouldn’t be able to impose their will. If they don’t, Heupel will fall to 1-3 against Florida and 2-8 against the Vols’ 3 biggest rivals. Not ideal.
No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 13 LSU — The Ole Miss front vs. the LSU O-line is a top-tier matchup
How weird is 2024? Ole Miss’ No. 1 strength is its defensive front. I’d say that without knowing if Princely Umanmielen is back after missing the South Carolina game because Suntarine Perkins filled in so well. Between Walter Nolen, Jared Ivey and wild cat QB legend/interior defensive lineman JJ Pegues, Ole Miss is going to present a challenge that might be a step above what LSU met against South Carolina’s defensive front. In that game, that was the only time LSU allowed Garrett Nussmeier to get sacked all season. To avoid that against Ole Miss’ pressure will be no small feat.
That group ranks No. 1 in FBS with 24 sacks and 63 TFLs. They’ve been phenomenal at getting teams behind the sticks and getting off the field, which is reflected in that 24% opposing 3rd-down conversion rate (No. 3 in FBS). This won’t just be a task for LSU 1st-round tackle prospects Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. That LSU interior offensive line might have the biggest challenge it’ll face all year with how dominant Nolen and Pegues have been at stymying the run, which suggests a pass-heavy approach with Nussmeier could be in the cards.
Either way, the strength-on-strength matchup up front will define this pivotal battle of 1-loss teams.
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky — How does Vandy handle … success?
It’s an actual question because Vandy BEAT ALABAMA. Sorry for the all caps. That was aggressive. It just needed to be repeated because that reality still hasn’t sunk in. That question is worth asking because Vandy didn’t handle its 2-0 start as well as it should have, and it played a sloppy game at Georgia State. Diego Pavia didn’t play at Virginia Tech or Alabama levels, and neither did Clark Lea’s defense.
So at Kentucky, who got a bye week after it pulled off a stunner of its own at Ole Miss, will we see a disciplined Vandy squad? Because as crazy as it sounds, Pavia will face a tougher defensive challenge against Kentucky than what he saw against Alabama. He’ll at least face a more prepared and disciplined unit, hence why the Cats are 2-touchdown favorites. Pavia has won 3 games in his career as a 3-touchdown underdog, so that won’t be anything that overwhelms him. The question is if a week in the spotlight will blind him or allow him to shine.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
