“The numbers never lie,” is a popular saying in math circles. While the BCS was a complicated system using computers to break down numbers, I’ll try to simplify them to see who would reach the College Football Playoff if the season ended today. Based on the AP Poll, Coaches Poll, Vegas predictions and the Fremeau Efficiency Index, we’ll take a closer look at the top four teams in the nation.

OHIO STATE

AP Poll: The Buckeyes have held the top spot in the AP Poll for the entirety of the season. This week, Ohio State received 1,428 points from AP voters, just 12 points ahead of Baylor, which has been gaining steam. Despite a relatively weak schedule and unconvincing wins over teams such as Northern Illinois and Indiana, the Buckeyes remain tied to the hips of AP voters. Are they the best team in the nation? Probably not, but unless they lose they certainly aren’t moving.

USA Today Coaches Poll: While the Coaches Poll carries no real weight now that the BCS is an afterthought, it is still a good representation of the best in the business. Apparently the nation’s coaches agree, deeming Ohio State the top dog in the land.

Vegas: Ohio State has been favored by double digits in every game this year, but only beaten the spread twice. That is a good indication of where the Buckeyes stand. Everyone believes they are great, but they haven’t quite delivered on expectations. Based on College Future Odds, the Buckeyes are 9/4 favorites to win the national title. I’m not touching them with a 10-foot poll, but I’m sure many gamblers will jump aboard the bandwagon. It worked last year, right?

What do the numbers say? While the polls are great, they don’t always do a great job of telling us why a team is ranked where it is. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) breaks down drive efficiency based on a variety of variables including the measure of success on non-garbage drives, opponent adjustments and a special emphasis placed on quality performances against good teams, win or lose. Strength of schedule is also heavily weighed. As of Oct. 19, the Buckeyes rank just 12th in the FEI Index. Pretty telling.

Defensively, Ohio State currently boasts the No. 30 defense in the country. Opponents are averaging just 16.3 points per game, not too shabby in the current high-flying college football landscape.

The results: No matter what anybody says, the Buckeyes would claim the first spot in the college playoff if the season ended today.

BAYLOR

AP Poll: Art Briles’ squad is playing great yet again, finally showing it can maintain offensive consistency against decent opponents (62-38 win over West Virginia last week). The Bears are now in the No. 2 spot for the second-straight week, and a dominating win over Iowa State on Saturday will only help their case.

USA Today Coaches Poll: The Bears hold down the No. 2 spot in the Coaches Poll as well, receiving 1,488 points. The Buckeyes received 1,547, an indication that the coaches believe Urban Meyer’s group is significantly better.

Vegas: Baylor has been heavily favored all season, its smallest spread, 17 points, coming against Texas Tech. The Bears have beaten the spread in four of their six contests, and gone over in the over/under in all but one game. This offense puts up big numbers. The Bears currently have a 5/1 shot to win the championship.

What do the numbers say? Baylor ranks No. 5 in the FEI, which is solid. Averaging 63.8 points per game, the Bears’ offense is ranked first in the NCAA. Baylor’s offense is currently averaging 719.7 yards per game, a staggering number. It’ll be interesting to see how the Bears perform against quality opponents as the season progresses.

The Results: The numbers are undeniable on this one. The Baylor Bears would make the CFP now, and have a good shot in January.

UTAH

AP Poll: The Utes moved up one spot to No.3, deservingly so. Of the two teams ahead of it, Utah has a more impressive resume by far with wins over No. 15 Michigan, No. 20 Cal and Oregon. Kyle Whittingham’s squad received 1,362 points, 54 behind Baylor. The AP voters aren’t fully convinced, but I am.

USA Today Coaches Poll: This is a great indication that many teams across the nation don’t take the Utes seriously. Utah remains No. 7 in the Coaches Poll, the same spot it held last week. This team is going to continue to thrive with a chip on its shoulder. Just wait and see.

Vegas: Utah has been favored in every game this year, but not by much. The spread has been 12 points or fewer in all six of its games. Of those, the Utes have covered four times. Utah is a 17/1 favorite to win the national title. If I was a betting man, I’d jump on this now for a few bucks. Why not?

What do the numbers say? The numbers are highly skewed towards Utah, ranking them No. 2 in the FEI. This is one of the reasons I am so high on them. They are performing at a high level week after week.

The Results: They may not make it to January with a tough schedule remaining, including Southern Cal, Oregon State, Washington, Arizona and UCLA, but it’s certainly possible.

LSU

AP Poll: The Tigers are currently in the No. 5 spot behind TCU, but I still have them making the playoff if the season ended today. With a convincing win over Mississippi State followed by a victory over No. 13 Florida last Saturday, LSU deserves to be there. TCU barely squeaked by Minnesota and Texas Tech. As of now, the Horned Frogs aren’t worthy of the playoff.

USA Today Coaches Poll: LSU ranks No. 5 in the Coaches Poll, just 10 points behind No. 4 Michigan State. The Spartans have played close games all season, with their two best wins coming from late-game heroics against Michigan and Oregon. Again, I believe LSU is a better fit as of now.

Vegas: Vegas is high on the Tigers, giving them a 7/1 shot to win the national championship. LSU has been favored in every game this year, covering each time.

What do the numbers say? LSU is ranked No. 4 in the FEI, exactly where the Tigers should be. They are averaging 460.8 yards of total offense, while holding opponent to an average of just 297.2 yards per game. The Tigers defense allows just 19.7 points per game, ranking it 28th in the country.

The Results: Non-SEC minds may not have LSU in the College Football Playoff if the season ended today, but I do. The numbers never lie.