A pre-fall camp prediction of who will be every SEC team's Week 1 starting quarterback
Prediction season is officially here.
We’ve got SEC picks already out there, and if you’re a real go-getter like me, you’ve got a national championship prediction already out there.
(I’ve got Ohio State beating Alabama. Tide fans, you’re welcome for the “yummy” rat poison.)
With that in mind, let’s continue the predictions with guessing who will start at quarterback for every SEC team in Week 1. Obviously, we know that some jobs have already been decided. These are the guys who will be taking the first snap, barring an injury/disciplinary issue:
- Alabama — Bryce Young
- Arkansas — KJ Jefferson
- Florida — Anthony Richardson
- Georgia — Stetson Bennett IV
- Kentucky — Will Levis
- MSU — Will Rogers
- South Carolina — Spencer Rattler
- Tennessee — Hendon Hooker
- Vanderbilt — Mike Wright
Any disagreement on those starters? Seven of those 9 guys were at SEC Media Days. The 2 guys in that group who weren’t were Rogers and Rattler, both of whom were openly discussed as their team’s starter by their head coach at SEC Media Days.
Also, shoutout to Wright, who was named the starter publicly at SEC Media Days. Clark Lea privately named him the starter at the end of spring ball.
Based on that list, that means the following jobs are up for grabs:
- Auburn
- LSU
- Mizzou
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
Ideally, these coaches want to get down to a 2-man competition. Splitting up first-team reps with 3 or even 4 guys in fall camp isn’t ideal, no matter what a coach says.
We did just have coaches discussing their signal-callers at SEC Media Days. I’d argue that most of the comments about perceived battles were pretty down the middle, with the exception of the aforementioned Lea.
Still, though. What better time than now to predict the rest of the battles that are up for grabs?
Auburn
My Week 1 prediction — Zach Calzada
I’ve gone back and forth on this a few times over the summer. Think about the way this offseason played out for Bryan Harsin. He was in an admittedly uncomfortable spot with a coup to get him fired after Year 1. He became more direct, he made an effort to become more personable, he started his own podcast and he did everything he could to try and move past his awkward February.
So do I really think that means Harsin is going back to the well with the guy who struggled in relief of Bo Nix? I don’t. TJ Finley isn’t it, and while I don’t think Calzada is the answer in the short- or long-term, the unknown of his abilities away from Jimbo Fisher’s offense will intrigue Harsin. Calzada was asked to run the Haynes King, RPO-based offense and didn’t do so at a high level. Even though Calzada was arguably the No. 13 starting quarterback in the SEC last year, I get the feeling that Calzada is the consensus choice to be the Week 1 guy.
Tank Bigsby on Zach Calzada: “You want to play with somebody who’s got that dog in him.”
— Tom Green (@Tomas_Verde) July 21, 2022
Do I still think Oregon transfer Robby Ashford needs to have a role? Absolutely, and I’m on record saying I think he’ll be the team’s starter by Halloween. In the meantime, though, I won’t be surprised if the Alabama killer gets the nod to take over a new offense in 2022.
LSU
My Week 1 prediction — Jayden Daniels
I still don’t think Brian Kelly knows who his starter is gonna be. Truly. If Garrett Nussmeier continues his offseason improvement, there’s a world in which he’s the surprising Week 1 starter getting all sorts of Ian Book comps. I find myself becoming more and more intrigued by the second-year signal-caller after he got rave reviews coming out of spring.
I don’t believe Kelly closed the door on Brennan earning the starting job, either. He wouldn’t have talked him out of the transfer portal unless he thought the 6th year super senior could run the offense. If called upon, Brennan is more than capable of becoming one of the league’s better quarterbacks.
But Daniels is my guess because he was hand-picked by Kelly at sort of an atypical time in the transfer calendar. Kelly had 3 legitimate options, and admitted he didn’t plan on pursuing a transfer until Daniels became an option. Call me crazy, but I think Kelly wants Daniels to master the offense and emerge as the guy. The combination of LSU’s loaded receivers room with Daniels’ mobility behind a potentially leaky offensive line would bode well for Kelly’s Year 1.
We saw what Daniels could do when he had weapons at Arizona State in 2019. Repeating that success — he had a 17-2 TD-INT ratio for an 8-win team — could be the vision Kelly has for his first offense in Baton Rouge.
Mizzou
My Week 1 prediction — Brady Cook
Eli Drinkwitz was asked 2 questions about quarterbacks in the main media area at SEC Media Days, and both of them were about Jack Abraham. As in, the Mississippi State transfer who walked on at Mizzou after he took a medical redshirt in 2021. As in, the guy on his 5th school. As in, the 7th year senior who was high school teammates with DK Metcalf.
That tells you a lot about the lack of national intrigue related to Mizzou’s quarterback battle.
That’s not to say that the Tigers are destined to struggle at the position in the post-Connor Bazelak world (he transferred to Indiana). But expectations are low after Mizzou reportedly whiffed in the transfer portal on JT Daniels and Jayden Daniels. Cook is more the choice by default after he got the start over Tyler Macon in the Armed Forces Bowl. Perhaps I’m too pessimistic after he failed to lead a Tyler Badie-less Mizzou offense on a touchdown drive for a 56-minute stretch against a service academy.
Oh wait. Did I say Drinkwitz only got asked 2 questions about quarterbacks at SEC Media Days? It was 3 if you include the question about whether he thought 4-star summer enrollee Sam Horn was going to join Mizzou or play Major League Baseball. The good news for Drinkwitz was that Horn went undrafted. The bad news is that starting a true freshman summer enrollee who probably needs to add some weight doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to be a Week 1 starter.
I’d expect Cook to be Drinkwitz’s best immediate plan to try and stretch the field more consistently after that deep passing attack struggled in 2021.
Ole Miss
My Week 1 prediction — Luke Altmyer
Let’s get a little bold, shall we?
I did a total 180 on this just before Ole Miss’ spring game. In February, I was sipping the Jaxson Dart Kool-Aid a bit too much, and I dumped a full can of Altmyer Kool-Aid in the trash. I can now see the error in my ways. Nobody, myself included, gave Altmyer a chance simply because Dart was the splashy offseason addition. Never mind the fact that Kiffin was in need of adding a transfer even if Altmyer was the next coming of Archie Manning. Plus, Altmyer was ineffective in relief against a Dave Aranda defense in the Sugar Bowl. Well, the 3rd quarter was promising.
What’s fair to mention is that Dart didn’t play a single defense of Baylor’s caliber. In his lone season at USC, he didn’t face a top-20 defense. Dart only faced 1 team who finished in the AP Top 25, and it was BYU, which held the true freshman to 7.1 yards per attempt without a single completion of 20 yards.
I get that there’s a larger sample size of Dart, who was rated higher in the 2021 class than Altmyer. But the spring game should’ve served as a reminder that Lane Kiffin’s offense isn’t easy to master. Dart was all over the place, and he forced throws like a young Matt Corral did in his early days with Kiffin. We need not forget how valuable it is to have that experience in the system, which Altmyer has. Also remember that Kiffin doesn’t necessarily have to worry about Dart bolting if he doesn’t win the starting job because he already used his 1-time exemption (that rule appears to be changing soon but it’s still in place for now).
I find myself becoming more and more intrigued by Altmyer, who might not have the biggest arm but is plenty capable of making necessary reads and adding that mobile element that Kiffin’s quarterbacks need. Altmyer is known to be a film junkie who would text his high school coach play ideas a 1 a.m. That’s the type of mindset it’ll take to win this job, and I think Altmyer is the surprising winner.
Texas A&M
My Week 1 prediction — Haynes King
Gut call here. No inside info. Jimbo Fisher surprised me when he went with Kellen Mond over Nick Starkel, which proved to be the right move. Perhaps he’ll surprise me again and go with Max Johnson after his year-plus as LSU’s starter. Maybe that’s the wrong way to phrase that. It wouldn’t surprise me if Fisher rolled with a guy who had a 27-6 TD-INT ratio playing in the toughest division in America.
But I’ll go with King because I think the unknown of his abilities is too enticing for Fisher to pass up. Remember, King already won a Fisher QB battle once. We essentially got 5 quarters of relatively unimpressive play from King before his season-ending injury in Week 2 at Colorado. Johnson, meanwhile, has the tall task of mastering the ever-complicated Fisher offense with entirely new surroundings.
So then why would Fisher have added the southpaw? Like, besides the fact that he wanted Johnson’s younger brother, No. 1 2022 tight end Jake Johnson? Well, even if Fisher felt like King was his guy, remember how last year played out. They didn’t have another option to turn to with Calzada, who didn’t perform well enough when healthy and played through injuries he probably shouldn’t have (mainly a knee injury on that final drive vs. Alabama and a dislocated shoulder against Auburn).
Fisher needed depth at QB so that Conner Weigman could take a redshirt year and not serve as the primary backup to a guy who just missed nearly all of last season. And hey, it’s totally possible that Johnson would step in and thrive in Fisher’s system to give A&M someone who has had success against SEC West competition.
Still, though. I think Fisher wants to see King fulfill his immense potential as his starter.
“You want to play with somebody who’s got that dog in him.” Great description of Calzada. I don’t know if there’s much else about the kid for him to start though.
I’m also a little cautious about King. Jimbo kept saying it was a close QB battle last year, which could just be coach talk. If it really was close, I’m not sure King will be the guy. Our run game should be strong enough that if we prioritize solid QB play and minimizing interceptions, Johnson makes the most sense to me.
I think Johnson will be a dog too. If he went 27/6 at LSU, what can he do with a better O line and a better run game than what LSU had last year?
I really think Johnson is the guy… Although I remember when I thought Showers was the guy so I could be wrong.
Max Johnson is a good QB, but he holds on to the ball too long, throws into coverage too much, and has a habit of under throwing deep balls.
I’m a Max Johnson fan but his pass just never seems to be in the right place. Too high, low, behind. It’s like the ball is in the air too long. LSU’s receivers bailed him out.
Love the kid, super competitive. Wish him the best. Still has the best name in football.
I think even holding too long we can agree that he is a major improvement from what we had last year. I think in the LSU game Calzada sacked himself twice in the redzone (tripped over his own feet with nobody around).
Thank you for your analysis, but I think I will go with our $100M coaches assessment.
Those pushing for Johnson really need to go back and watch his game film from 2021.
He holds onto the ball too long and takes way too many sacks. And his low interception total had a strong element of luck. A number of his passes should have been picked.
If Johnson doesn’t overthrow Bech twice against Bama this past season, LSU walks out of BDS with a win.
^^This^^
He did choke in the critical drives.
As for Auburn, I agree with the article.
Still think that Finley will start but we already know Finley and Calzada are just mediocre QB’s who might pull out one great game but in total are not good enough to be successful in the SEC. Both will get us maybe one or two SEC wins and that’s it. Certainly not enough for Harsin to keep his job and I he knows that.
That’s why I think Harsin will give Ashford some read option packages in the beginning to put more pressure on defenses. These packages will expand more and more and just before the first SEC game we will have a new starter…..
One of those mediocre QB’s beat Alabama.
Yep. I must say that I don’t like what he did, but d@mn, I do respect it. Calzada gets the start.
Aggie OLine didn’t help Calzada, or King, out last year. Finley can make all the throws but seems to get rattled too easily. Ashford hasn’t seen SEC competition.
I predict Calzada
“Aggie OLine didn’t help Calzada”
You uh…see AU’s O-Line? Awful.
Ashford has not seen any competition since high school. He has not played in a football game in what will be almost 3 years. That doesn’t mean he won’t win the job or play well, but it would be unusual. Most QBs that do not win the job as freshmen, at least get some playing time.
A&M’s offensive line was pretty solid after the Arkansas game. And King’s only full game was against Kent State, so they just got outsized. 100% Calzada to blame (and Jimbo possibly) for the stagnant 2021 offense.
Finley is a statue. He can’t move in the pocket and will get killed by good defenses.
Like I said…that’s the one great game he is capable of.
NonstopAU, I really don’t like the ‘if’ game but IF Bigsby had gone down you would be saying Finley beat Bama in the Iron Bowl. At home. And the Tiger faithful would STILL be rolling Toomer’s Corner! Not that that would make him an All-American, just….
The “If” scenario is annoying. AU lost plain and simple.
57929names, you are buying too much into that.
You might recall that Nix did beat Bama and STILL didn’t save his job….
I thought Auburn fans ran him out. Or was it Gus stole him from Auburn? :)
Brennan will be LSUs starter unless he gets injured again. Daniels may bring a better RPO element, but his passing is erratic.
I’d much rather have an accurate very good passer. Brennan has waited for his time, and he is due for a huge season.
Daniels has a higher completion percentage than Brennan. Brennan has a slightly better ypa and rating. Not much difference in their numbers at all. The spring game was but a snapshot. The competition seems pretty open.
Be that as it may, that was in a defenseless Pac12..not the SEC. I still see Brennan starting unless he gets injured.
Kelly stole Daniels from Drinkwitz! He was going to go there until Kelly took him in for a visit. Then boom he went with LSU. Good luck with whomever is the starter.
I don’t think Drinkwitz can afford to guarantee any transfer quarterback mentioned a starting job. At least 2 other QBs on the Mizzou roster have the potential to be better quarterbacks than those transfers you mentioned.
But they most likely won’t. The other guys have all shown more. Daniels would have been the Missouri starter if he had gone there.
The LSU call is a tough one. I was thinking Brennan, but when just comparing passing stats, they are very close, and Daniels is the way better runner. This call will be interesting. Unless we are having a very good season, I think LSU will have multiple guys start at QB.
” I won’t be surprised if the Alabama killer gets the nod to take over a new offense in 2022.”
Alabama killer?
I forgot to see where Sam horn got drafted. Now I read he was not drafted at all. I thought he was a sure fire first or second round guy. I think that’s great for Mizzou but does anyone know why de dropped out of the draft altogether? I assume he will play both sports at Mizzou?
The way the MLB draft works is you burn a draft pick if the player decides not to go MLB. If he enters the draft in a later year it starts all over.
Horn let it be known that if he didn’t go at a certain level, he would play college ball. When it got to the point where he was expected to go (prob 2nd round), likely the teams interested reached out to see his inclination at that signing bonus position. If he was not inclined to sign, the team would not waste the pick.
I will be shocked if Jayden Daniels starts against FSU. I see him as LSU’s #3 QB.
I think Denbrock can have a few RPO plays for Daniels, but this is Brennan’s time to shine. Nussmeier is clearly the future, but Brennan deserves every chance to succeed.
Good article! Nicely written, no grammar or spelling mistakes . . . unusual these days. Interesting & informative. Thanks!
Hotty Toddy!
Didn’t make it to this most recent spring game, but I remember the year before with King vs Calzada. Neither seemed much up on the other, King just a bit. I feel like King may get a shot in the early games and Johnson to bail out if needed. Johnson is stuck with us now, King isn’t.
King in my opinion just doesn’t have the arm. Every LSU fan on this site talks about Johnson’s imperfections as a passer, but I still will take his production with a bad offensive line and no consistency on the outside from the playmakers (injury, sitting out, inexperience).
Also, I think it will be Johnson solely on the fact that little brother Jake is an Aggie. I always assume those are package deals.
And I am not discrediting the LSU fans opinions. They have watched him play more football than me. I just feel he was in a very tough spot last year with Coach O on the way out. Maybe Jimbo can coach him up.
If Mizzou doesn’t use Sam Horn, someone else in the SEC certainly will.
He needs a bit more weight .. riding the bench a season would probably be in sams horn best interest imo
Strength, coaching, experience with SEC speed, etc, Horn needs plenty to be ready to start in the SEC. My prediction, if things go well for Mizzou, Abraham wins the starting job, both Cook and Horn get limited time in mop up like situations.
I think Drinkwitz saves Jack for the games where he needs 2nd half maturity
Drinkwitz started Cook because he had to know what he could do against Army full game.
Bazelak transferred because?????my guess Indiana said the job is yours.
Drinkwitz needs Macon for special pllaybook series
Jack will play if the younger players don’t excell
Horn will be like the sprinter that came out of the blocks a hair late but will show excellence in November.
Missouri’s season will go as far as the defense rises. This depends on the strength, stamina, agility, and power off season training work these young men did and to a lesser extent how they mature 2022 schedule.
Missouri just needs to outscore their opponents. If they do that they will win. This is a can’t miss prediction. I been using for years.
That’s the way most Missouri fans would like it to be! Stay with that idea!
For Auburn, I’m thinking Calzada might win it, and if he does I’m okay with that, but I’m secretly hoping it’s Robby Ashford.
Who will replace Harsin?
Who does Sabin have in rehab over there in Alabama
Hugh Freeze? Not a rehab for the GOAT, but the Auburn faithful just need some action.
All I know is I put 2K on the over 7.5 game win total for Ole Miss. that said. Lane start whichever guy gets you at least 8 wins this season.
if Harsin’s job wasn’t on the line it would make way more sense to start Holden Geriner. Nix was able to come in as a freshman and do a passable job. Geriner has a better temperament than Nix did.