Predicting all the winners for the 2022 Home Depot College Football Awards Show
Ah, you know that sound. Awards season. It’s here. It’s wonderful.
The Home Depot College Football Awards Show will air Thursday night (Dec. 7) on ESPN at 7 p.m. ET.
We’ll have 9 major awards handed out to the best of the best in college football.
Let’s predict who’ll win each of them:
Chuck Bednarik Award (Defensive Player of the Year)
Nominees — Will Anderson Jr. (Alabama), Ivan Pace Jr. (Cincinnati) Tuli Tuipulotu (USC)
Predicted winner — Anderson
Say what you want about it being a “down” year for Anderson. The dude still had 17 tackles for loss (No. 10 in FBS) 10 sacks (No. 7 in FBS), 12 hurries and a pick-6. He also had a regular-season best 52 quarterback pressures (via PFF). He changed how offenses operated even when he didn’t stuff the stat sheet, though he had at least 1 TFL in all 11 games against FBS competition in 2022. Tuipulotu absolutely has a case because statistically speaking, he’s got Anderson beat in both major categories. But will the best defensive player award go to a player from a unit who failed to crack the top 100 in yards/rush allowed and yards/pass allowed? My guess is it won’t.
Biletnikoff Award (Outstanding Receiver)
Nominees — Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State), Jalin Hyatt (Tennessee), Xavier Hutchinson (Iowa State)
Predicted winner — Harrison
Would I vote for Hyatt? Probably, but this is a prediction. Based on the way awards week started, I can absolutely picture Tennessee fans pointing to the fact that Hyatt has Harrison beat both in receiving yards and touchdowns. Both were expected to be the second options, but injuries to Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cedric Tillman opened the door for that. Harrison might get the benefit of the doubt because of his degree of difficulty associated with his catches. I expect Vol Twitter will have some thoughts on that.
Lou Groza Collegiate Place-Kicker Award (Outstanding Kicker)
Nominees — Christopher Dunn (NC State), Joshua Karty (Stanford), Jake Moody (Michigan)
Predicted winner — Karty
I mean, the dude was Stanford’s MVP this year. He literally won the award. Moody made the most kicks, but Karty was a perfect 18-for-18 (he missed 1 PAT). Nobody else in the country could claim that. In fact, he’s the 4th player in FBS history to accomplish that feat. He made 3 kicks from north of 50 yards and he bombed a 61-yarder to set a program record. He seems like a lock to win the award.
Ray Guy Award (Outstanding Punter)
Nominees — Mason Fletcher (Cincinnati), Bryce Baringer (Michigan State), Adam Korsak (Rutgers)
Predicted winner — Baringer
No, I don’t understand how South Carolina’s Kai Kroger didn’t make the cut. He’d be my winner, but I digress. Baringer did lead the country in average punt yards, and he put 22 punts inside the 20-yard line (Kroger had 27 including 5 against Clemson). The guy boomed 10 punts of at least 60 yards, which is absurd. Sure, maybe a little branding goes into this with the mustache and the glasses. Perhaps that helps the 23-year-old punter take home some hardware.
Maxwell Award (Player of the Year)
Nominees — Caleb Williams (USC), CJ Stroud (Ohio State), Hendon Hooker (Tennessee)
Predicted winner — Williams
In the Playoff era, 7 of the 8 Maxwell winners also won the Heisman Trophy. Tua Tagovailoa was the lone exception. Ergo, the betting favorite to win the award is Williams, who absolutely had the best numbers of any quarterback in the country. How much did the Pac-12 Championship showing, which he clearly wasn’t at 100% in the second half, play into that? I’d say maybe a bit, but not a ton. He still had 47 touchdowns with 4,447 scrimmage yards. Maybe this would be different if Stroud or Hooker won a conference title, but I’ll stick with my Heisman-Maxwell projection and roll with the Oklahoma transfer.
Davey O’Brien National Quarterback Award (Best Quarterback)
Nominees — Caleb Williams (USC), Max Duggan (TCU), CJ Stroud (Ohio State)
Predicted winner — Williams
Since 2005, the only quarterback who won the Heisman but not the Davey O’Brien Award was 2016 Lamar Jackson. Deshaun Watson took home the prize that year, which many speculated was because Jackson’s rushing prowess didn’t make him a traditional quarterback. Whatever the case, my best guess is that Williams is taking home the Heisman with his nation-leading 47 touchdowns, 37 of which came through the air. A TCU Big 12 Championship would have added a nice notch on Duggan’s belt, but without it, I think Williams will be the clear winner.
Outland Trophy (Most Outstanding Interior Lineman)
Nominees — Calijah Kancey (Pitt), Olusegun Oluwatimi (Michigan), Peter Skoronski (Northwestern)
Predicted winner — Oluwatimi
Skoronski might be the better NFL prospect, but this comes down to who has had the better year. The guy who has helped pave the way for that dominant Michigan ground attack is Oluwatimi, which is why he’s most likely to win the award. In a weird way, it probably helped his case that when the Wolverines lost potential Doak Walker Award winner Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards immediately stepped in and picked up where he left off. The Virginia transfer has been exactly what Michigan needed at center to build off last year’s Playoff run. He should take home the hardware.
Jim Thorpe Award (Best Defensive Back)
Nominees — Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson (TCU), Clark Phillips III (Utah), Devon Witherspoon (Illinois)
Predicted winner — Phillips
While I don’t understand how Emmanuel Forbes didn’t make the cut, I do think this is a phenomenal group with some worthy winners. Phillips is tied with Forbes for the Power 5 lead with 6 interceptions, though he trails Hodges-Tomlinson (14) and Witherspoon (17) in passes defended. So what’s the difference-maker? We just watched Phillips totally eliminate 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner Jordan Addison in the Pac-12 Championship. The All-American made quite the closing argument, and I think it’ll propel him to win the honor as the nation’s top DB.
Doak Walker Award (Best Running Back)
Nominees — Chase Brown (Illinois), Bijan Robinson (Texas), Blake Corum (Michigan)
Predicted winner — Robinson
If Corum doesn’t get hurt, my guess is that he takes home the crown. But as it stands, Robinson has the best case even though he was 63 rushing yards behind Brown. It’s also worth noting that Brown got 70 more carries and Robinson also had the receiving yards advantage, which was why they only finished 11 scrimmage yards apart. Robinson’s ability to break tackles was second to none. He had more missed tackles forced than any Power 5 back in the regular season (via PFF), so while numbers are certainly part of it, that feels like it could be the difference between him and Brown. The Doak Walker Award will find a home in Austin for the 5th time.