Another week, another reorganization of the SEC. OK, so we did note that Ole Miss (and not Tennessee) could be the biggest threat to Georgia. We did also have Alabama winning (although probably not in a runaway). But not everything in the SEC was expected.

Week 11 altered several outlooks, for better or worse.

Here’s our predicted order of finish and record for every SEC team.

Texas (11-1, 8-1 after beating Florida 49-17)

The Horns are solidly on top of the SEC. Aside from A&M on the road, it’s a pretty easy run. Arkansas doesn’t seem to have the defense to hang with Texas and Kentucky doesn’t have the offense. The Aggies are the only stumbling block left, and you’d have to prefer to be in Texas’s shoes in that one.

Tennessee (11-1, 8-1 after 33-14 win over Mississippi State)

The injury to Nico Iamaleava could be a big deal, because the question will be whether Tennessee can get the offense untracked to put up some scores on Georgia. A week ago, Georgia would have been the pick, but seeing UGA unable to score in too many games (and the generally positive initial precautionary nature of Nico’s injury) makes Tennessee the road pick here. UTEP and Vandy shouldn’t be threats.

Ole Miss (10-2, 8-2 after 28-10 win over Georgia)

That was a statement maker. The statement is that the Rebels are going to make the Playoff. Florida on the road and the Egg Bowl at home don’t leave much room for competitive games. Ole Miss took it right to Georgia and earned a hard-fought, physical victory in the kind of game they’ve seemed to lose in recent seasons.

Alabama (10-2, 7-2 after 42-13 win over LSU)

Is this the game where Kalen DeBoer acknowledges that while he’d really like to line up and throw the ball all over the field, he’s at his best when running and leaning on the defense? This Alabama team is now very solidly within the CFP field and nobody left on the schedule has the scoring punch to outlast the Tide.

Georgia (9-3, 7-2 after 28-10 loss to Ole Miss)

Obviously, a Georgia Tech team that can beat Miami can’t be a total afterthought, but Tennessee is the key game here. Beat the Vols and UGA can create 10-2 chaos. That said, the regression of Carson Beck makes it hard to pick Georgia in this game. Surely, it’s the receivers on the outside who are the stumbling point, although you have to wonder if Beck has taken some physical punishment that has left him a little bit off.

Texas A&M (9-3, 7-2 after week off)

The Aggies shouldn’t get a challenge from New Mexico State or Auburn, but Texas seems likely to be the loss that might bump A&M out of the CFP hunt. Still, A&M is pretty clearly going to be far from the only 9-3 team that’s hoping and crossing their fingers come CFP announcement date.

LSU (9-3, 6-3 after 42-13 loss to Alabama)

Yes, this was a tough loss. Yes, they’re out of the Playoff. But it should an easy 9-3 finish. At Florida then home against Vandy and Oklahoma is a pretty soft ending to the regular season. As wacky as the 2024 season has been, the Playoff selection committee might end up picking a 9-3 SEC team … or an unimpressive 10-2 Mizzou team. So LSU might not be quite as dead in CFP terms as was presumed.

Missouri (9-3, 7-2 after 30-23 win over Oklahoma)

This is the key. The schedule shapes up for Missouri to have a straight-forward path to 10 wins. Could the CFP overlook a 10-2 SEC team with a cruddy schedule for a 9-3 team with a tougher slate? Here’s the thing — all those other potential 9-3 teams have to be hoping that South Carolina or Arkansas takes down the Tigers. Of the two, Carolina looks the most likely and we’ll project that. A 9-3 Mizzou team isn’t coming within 100 miles of the Playoff.

South Carolina (8-4, 6-3 after 28-7 win over Vanderbilt)

Carolina was again impressive. Honestly, 9-3 could well be in the cards. Mizzou at home doesn’t look intimidating and FCS Wofford is no matchup. That leaves Clemson, and the Tigers are entirely within reach. That said, for the moment, we’ll stick with 8-4, which is quite a job by Shane Beamer for this anti-Missouri of horrific SEC slates.

Vanderbilt (6-6, 6-4 after 28-7 loss to South Carolina)

LSU and Tennessee should handle the Commodores. Still, it’s a remarkable season and Vandy should get a bowl opponent that is a much more competitive matchup than its last couple of regular-season games.

Arkansas (6-6, 5-4 coming off a bye week)

The Hogs at Missouri is a very, very interesting game, but we’re trending very slightly on the Tigers’ side of things. Beating Texas isn’t plausible, but handling La. Tech will get the Razorbacks to bowl eligibility. Sam Pittman’s seat should be at least a little cooler than it was.

Oklahoma (5-7, 5-5 after 30-23 loss to Missouri)

This was the shot for the Sooners. It’s hard to see Alabama or LSU being competitive games for a team that uses so much energy shooting itself in the foot. No way around seeing Oklahoma as one of the SEC’s biggest disappointments of 2024.

Florida (5-7, 4-5 after 49-17 loss to Texas)

The brutal schedule month from continues. Billy Napier got a statement of confidence, but let’s see how confident anyone is if the LSU and Ole Miss games are also 30+ point losses. Well, there’s always Florida State in the finale.

Kentucky (4-8, 3-6 after week off)

It’s an FCS game coming up, so Kentucky’s bowl hopes will last another week before Texas handles that. Mark Stoops’ team has always played well against Louisville, but with likely no real stakes on the line, it’ll be interesting to see if that continues.

Auburn (4-8, 3-6 after week off)

Like Kentucky, Auburn’s bowl hopes can live another week given an easy matchup with ULM. But A&M and Alabama don’t look plausible. Could Hugh Freeze be the SEC coach most likely to be hitting the road?

Mississippi State (2-10, 2-8 after 33-14 loss to Tennessee)

The Bulldogs are playing out the string. Missouri and Ole Miss aren’t teams they can beat.

Joe Cox

Joe Cox is a columnist for Saturday Down South. He has also written or assisted in writing five books, and his most recent, Almost Perfect (a study of baseball pitchers’ near-miss attempts at perfect games), is available on Amazon or at many local bookstores.