Predicting every SEC team's final record after Week 4
SEC Week 4 was competitive, entertaining, and everything we expected in an all-SEC season, albeit with 4 missing teams. After a month of football, what do we know now that we didn’t know before the season? One way to gauge it is to let us project how your favorite team ends the season.
Even with a massive distraction with Nick Saban’s on-agan, off-again COVID battle, which ended up not being a thing, Alabama was still ready to drop the hammer with a second half for the ages. Some things change, but plenty of others don’t.
Arkansas continues to impress. The schedule will get tougher, but the Razorbacks have far exceeded our preseason expectations. At this point, this team looks more likely to pick up a 4th win than to get stuck with a 2-8 mark. Face it, they’re a blown call away from being 3-1 and in the running for a .500 SEC campaign.
Auburn had an ugly loss … but our projection for them stays the same, basically because the next 4 games are pretty winnable. The TIgers could be 6-2 heading into the Iron Bowl. That said, if you can lose to Carolina and nearly lose to Arkansas, the Tigers could also be 4-4 by then. But until the Mississippi schools show us some consistency, we’ll err on the Auburn side of things.
After the bye week next week, the Gators are scheduled to play for the last 7 weeks of the season. They’ll be a substantial underdog to Georgia, and based on the schedule shift and their disappointing defense so far, it feels like they could take another tough loss somewhere along the way.
Hard to imagine anybody other than Florida having a shot at the Bulldogs, and a 9-1 season ought to keep UGA in the thick of the CFP hunt.
Kentucky picked up a 2nd consecutive impressive defensive performance, and in an SEC that’s pass-heavy, that counts for plenty. If they can continue their run against Missouri, there’s no reason not to expect the Wildcats to hit the .500 mark for this SEC season.
Their canceled game against Florida will be tough to win, and with Bama and A&M lurking in the November schedule, at this point, it’s hard to predict anything better than .500 for the Tigers. Frankly, they could be more likely to go 4-6 than 6-4.
Mississippi State: 3-7
A&M was probably going to be a loss anyway, so we’re not overreacting to that or being 1-3. The remaining schedule has some breathing room after their next game at Alabama. We’ll stick with 3 wins, with Vandy, the Egg Bowl and Mizzou still on the schedule.
The Tigers were one team we were really looking forward to seeing. Was the team that beat LSU the genuine article or the one that was outclassed by Tennessee? If it’s the former, they could go 6-4. If it’s the latter, it’ll be no better than 3-7. We’ll split the difference and be slightly pessimistic about it.
Ole Miss: 4-6
Suddenly that record-breaking offense ran aground against Arkansas. Vandy and South Carolina are still on the schedule, as well as some inconsistent West teams. Honestly, A&M is by far the best team left that they’ll face. They should have a punchers’ chance or better in all the rest.
South Carolina: 3-7
Carolina’s upset win against Auburn at least showed a blueprint to salvage a decent season. But was the victory a referendum on Carolina getting moving or on Auburn falling apart? Probably a little of both. That LSU game next week is a big one — if Carolina can pull that one off, the Gamecocks could make it to 5-5 yet.
A week ago, we said that the UT team from the first half of their game with Georgia would go 7-3, but the one from the second half would go 3-7. It was definitely the second-half group that showed up (to use the term loosely) against Kentucky. They’ll beat Vandy and probably nab another one (Arkansas or Auburn as most likely suspects), but that’s about all the optimism we’ve got now.
Texas A&M: 8-2
The rest of the A&M schedule doesn’t look so daunting. We’re still projecting somebody to trip them up, but who would it be? Auburn? Tennessee? Neither looked very scary this week. That win over Florida was a season-turner, and an 8-2 mark in the SEC probably ends up with a top-10 A&M team.
We had them at 0-10 before they had a COVID outbreak.