Another week of SEC football brought some predictable moments and some significant surprises. Yes, Alabama and Georgia both looked like national top-5 (top-2?) programs. Oklahoma showed some late game fire, and it’s unclear whether Week 5 showed more of how good Kentucky’s defense is or how overrated Ole Miss was off a soft first 4 games.

But here’s where SEC team is slated to stack up in their final regular-season numbers.

Texas: 11-1 (5-0, beat Mississippi State 35-13)

The only real element of concern for Texas is that they haven’t played anybody exceptionally good. Michigan is more or less OK, but is definitely limited offensively. But then again, with the exception of Georgia, there’s not a ton of meat on the Texas slate. Oklahoma, Florida and Kentucky aren’t teams to lose much sleep over. The Horns look very likely to end up 11-1 … 12-0 could be more likely than 10-2.

Alabama: 11-1 (4-0, beat Georgia 41-34)

It was a statement game and Alabama’s statement was that the Tide belong with the top teams in the nation. They still have a fairly tough road schedule ahead, with games at Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma. Still, the team that jumped all over Georgia looked more like a 12-0 team than a 10-2 team. Alabama is as good as anybody. Again.

Georgia: 10-2 (3-1, lost to Alabama 41-34)

Tough loss for Georgia as Alabama’s mouth punch was a little too much to overcome. Still, there’s certainly something to be said for flipping a 30-7 halftime deficit to a 34-33 fourth quarter lead. Even if that lead didn’t hold up.

Georgia is a better team than 10-2 and they’ll probably prove it in the College Football Playoff. But they do still have to go to Texas and Ole Miss and face Tennessee at home. Another loss seems more likely than not.

Missouri: 10-2 (4-0, off this week)

It’s not necessarily that the Tigers are that good. They drew a relatively cozy schedule, avoiding Georgia, Texas, Tennessee and Ole Miss. The road games at Texas A&M and South Carolina could be challenging, but this could reasonably be an 11-1 team.

Tennessee: 10-2 (4-0, off this week)

Alabama and Georgia are still lurking. It’s hard to pick even the Vols to beat either rival. Everybody else on UT’s schedule, though, looks like fair game. A trip to Arkansas or a home game with Kentucky aren’t exactly terrifying challenges.

Ole Miss: 9-3 (4-1, lost to Kentucky 20-17)

The Rebels’ offense stalled against the first good defense it faced. The Rebels go on the road the next 2 weeks at South Carolina and LSU. It wouldn’t be shocking if they lost 1. Oklahoma and Georgia are still on the schedule moving ahead, as are trips to Arkansas and Florida. The Playoff is probably sliding away in a hurry.

LSU: 9-3 (4-1, beat South Alabama 42-10)

The Tigers continue to look like one of the almost-top tier SEC teams. Their Oct. 12 game with Ole Miss is a de facto CFP elimination game for somebody. With Alabama and some tough road trips also looming, the projection sits at 9-3.

Texas A&M: 8-4 (4-1, beat Arkansas 21-17)

Marcel Reed managed to win a challenging SEC game. There’s no Georgia or Alabama on the back end of the schedule, but next week’s game against Missouri could be an upset or a humbling for the Aggies. Win and we’re talking about 9-3. Lost and 7-5 could get more realistic.

Kentucky: 8-4 (3-2, beat Ole Miss 20-17)

So maybe the Wildcats’ demise was a bit premature. At this point, the path to a bowl goes through FCS Murray State, Vandy, and then 1 more win. Auburn might turn the ball over to Kentucky’s defense 10 times, and the Wildcats have had Florida’s number in recent years. That leaves Louisville for an 8th win (because Tennessee and Texas seem like awfully heavy lifting for a team this offensively limited).

Oklahoma: 6-6 (4-1, beat Auburn 27-21)

Gutty, gutty win for the Sooners. On the road, OU trailed 21-10 early in the fourth quarter before rallying for the win. The Sooners still have to play Texas and Ole Miss in a 3-game span after the upcoming off week. For that matter, the Nov. 2 game with Maine and an Oct. 19 home game against South Carolina look like the most likely wins. After those, OU could end up losing the rest of a challenging slate.

South Carolina: 6-6 (3-1, off)

Things start to get tough on the Gamecocks. Next week brings the Ole Miss Rebels to town and then USC will have to play at Alabama and at Oklahoma. Wofford and Vandy look like wins, and we’ll project a 6th victory, but it’s hard to call for more until LaNorris Sellers is back under center. .

Arkansas: 5-7 (3-2, lost to Texas A&M 21-17)

This was a tough loss and might end up being the one that keeps the Hogs out of a bowl game. Looking ahead, Louisiana Tech and at Mississippi State are the only likely wins. Getting a 6th win depends on beating Ole Miss or LSU at home or winning at Mizzou. For the moment, that seems less than likely.

Auburn: 5-7 (2-3, lost to Oklahoma 27-21)

It’s a tough run for Auburn to reach a bowl now. ULM and Vanderbilt look like probable wins, but after that, it gets lean in a hurry. Georgia and Bama both look out of range and road games against Mizzou and Kentucky look challenging. Texas A&M at home might be the best shot at even 5 wins. We’ve got the Tigers winning 1 of these games, but not 2.

Florida: 5-7 (2-2, off this week)

The next 3 are gigantic. UCF looks very winnable, and the game with Kentucky becomes a must-have (but also a significant challenge). Florida State is awful at the end of the season, but even then, Florida has to handle Kentucky and upset somebody good (LSU? Ole Miss?) to reach 6 wins.

Vanderbilt: 3-9 (2-2, off this week)

Ball State is the only likely win remaining. Vandy’s best SEC chances for success are probably on the road (Kentucky? Auburn?) as home games with Bama, Texas and Tennessee are still ahead.

Mississippi State: 2-10 (1-4, lost to Texas 35-13)

Losing Blake Shapen doesn’t make this feel any better. State will beat UMass, but it’s tough sledding from there. The Oct. 26 home game with Arkansas is the best shot, but it’s not a great shot.