Predicting what the fourth College Football Playoff ranking will look like
Finally.
Finally we’re to the last Tuesday rankings show. Finally we saw a top-7 team lose a game. We have Florida’s shoe-throwing disaster to thank for that.
The question now is how does that shake up Nos. 6-10. Those spots are, in many ways, still significant. We still have teams vying for an outside shot at the Playoff. That includes teams like Cincinnati and even USC, which matched Ohio State’s 5-0 with a comeback win against UCLA on Saturday.
So what will the rankings look like on the last Tuesday show of the year (the field will be revealed Sunday afternoon)? Here’s my guess at the top 10:
10. USC
I absolutely think the Trojans leap into the top 10, especially after Miami was smoked by UNC while Oklahoma and Indiana were both idle. USC is now 5-0, just like Ohio State. The selection committee has done its best to try and keep all the Power 5 conferences engaged (see last week’s No. 7 ranking of Iowa State). It wouldn’t surprise me if we saw the Trojans jump into the top 10 to make it seem like the Pac-12 is still competing for a Playoff spot, even if their combined opponents’ record is 7-14.
9. Georgia
Yes, I think the Dawgs move back a spot despite their rather impressive showing against a ranked Mizzou squad on the road. Why? The selection committee told us before that head-to-head matters, and Georgia still doesn’t have the head-to-head with now 2-loss Florida. The only way in which Georgia doesn’t move back a spot is if the selection committee rethinks that belief, or if it goes back on its absurd No. 7 ranking of Iowa State, which was more egregious than those favorable Georgia rankings.
8. Florida
Georgia, in a way, is like a buffer for Florida. Even after that brutal loss to LSU as a 3-score home favorite, the Gators’ fall shouldn’t be as steep as some imagined. Remember that Florida was ranked behind Texas A&M because of the head-to-head. The Gators still have that — and by double digits on a neutral site — against Georgia. I’d actually have Florida ranked ahead of 2-loss Iowa State, which still has that 3-score home loss to a Group of 5 team, but based on what we’ve seen from the selection committee so far, it’s safe to say the Cyclones are getting the overwhelming benefit of the doubt.
7. Cincinnati
Could the idle Bearcats, who have yet to play a game since the first rankings come out, be in position to actually move up a spot? My guess is yes. I think the selection committee sends a bad message if Florida only drops 1 spot after a home loss as a 23-point favorite. Ergo, moving Cincinnati and Iowa State up a spot is something they can justify. Was it a slap in the face that an unbeaten Cincinnati team fell behind a 2-loss Iowa State team who lost by 3 scores at home to a Sun Belt team? Yes. Will it still be a slap in the face? Absolutely. But again, the selection committee already showed its hand, as weird as it is.
6. Iowa State
If you read 7-10, you know that I don’t have a lot of nice things to say about the Cyclones’ baffling ranking. My guess is that the Florida loss somehow moves them up to No. 6, despite the fact that they had a bye week. They already came in at No. 7 last week ahead of Georgia and Cincinnati. Because I believe Florida still has to be ranked ahead of Georgia based on the head-to-head, it allows the selection committee to continue to justify this ridiculous spot for Matt Campbell’s team. The selection committee is trying to convince us that the Big 12 title game has Playoff ramifications, but we should know better. That “2” in the loss column looms large.
5. Texas A&M
Here’s the good news for the Aggies. As much of a bummer as it was that the Ole Miss game got canceled, Florida losing to LSU was 1 of the key things that needed to bounce their way. Florida having a Playoff path with 1 loss stood in the way of A&M because of that potential Alabama win, but that’s no longer the case. The Aggies are now in a spot where if they beat Tennessee and then get either a Clemson blowout win OR a Notre Dame win against Clemson, they have favorable odds to make the field regardless of what happens to Ohio State. Nothing is a given. Monitor that interesting USC ranking, too. If the Trojans suddenly jump into the top 7 or 8, that’s bad news.
But if that doesn’t happen, A&M’s path is at least still there heading into the last weekend. That’s all Jimbo Fisher could’ve asked for post-Alabama loss.
4. Ohio State
Another canceled game, another top-4 ranking? Not to go all Dan Mullen here, but the selection committee has told us that playing games isn’t the end all, be all. The Buckeyes can still make the field by simply winning the Big Ten Championship. Did it really matter whether the Buckeyes played in the conference title game or instead played a solid Iowa squad? No, I’d argue. But this ranking is significant for Ohio State because assuming it doesn’t change, A&M’s opponent isn’t better. It’s a 3-win Tennessee team.
Now that Florida lost to LSU, the only way the Buckeyes get bumped out of the field is by losing to Northwestern. That is, assuming they get this No. 4 spot Tuesday night.
3. Clemson
Isn’t it nice not to have to play a game with the conference title berth already clinched? The Tigers, not Florida, got that luxury. As a result, Clemson’s path is obvious. For them, Saturday’s ACC Championship is a de-facto Playoff quarterfinal game (it isn’t that for Notre Dame). There’s not really any mystery to it at this point, but I fully expect Dabo Swinney to live in a world where he thinks a 2-loss Clemson team should totally make the field. That’s not happening. What’s more likely is that the Tigers can win and knock Notre Dame down to that No. 4 spot so that they don’t need to have a grudge match with the Irish in the Playoff.
2. Notre Dame
I’m OK with the Irish still having a Playoff path with a Clemson loss, depending on what it looks like. If it’s clear that they can’t stay on the field with a Trevor Lawrence Clemson offense, forget about it. We’ve never seen a team get waxed in a conference title game and then still make the field. But if the Irish make it a 60-minute game or at least keep it within 2 scores, that’s a different conversation, especially now with that 14-point win at UNC looking even better following the Heels’ drubbing at Miami. That’ll give the Irish a 10-1 record and more than 120 minutes of showing that they can hang with the program who’s had more success than anyone in the last 5 seasons. A big Saturday is in store, to say the least.
1. Alabama
In. Don’t argue it. You’ll just sound dumb. We’re talking about a 10-0 team against only SEC opponents with an average margin of victory north of 30 points, and 2 of those wins came against top-10 teams by 3 scores.
Ticket punched. Forget about it. Only 3 spots are on the line this weekend.
There’s been a lot of arguement about OSU or A&M for the 4th spot, but ISU at #6 is absolutely insane.
Yeah, a team that’s lost twice is #6. Give me a break! 31-14 against now #17 Louisiana and 24-21 against now unranked OKST. There should be a lot of teams ranked higher than ISU. They should be Top 25, but not Top 6.
Since playing games are not required to get a spot, Alabama should opt out of the SEC championship game! Likewise wit Clemson and ND!
Exactly. The committee is stupid.
So, after Florida just delivered the uncontested worst loss of the 2020 season.
While Georgia’s offense is actually out producing the Florida offense, not to mention Georgia clearly has a better defense.
The play-off committee will put Florida over Georgia. They might be the only one’s…
Georgia would beat Florida, if they played today. No doubt.
Sure there is doubt.
^ I see what you did there…nicely done.
I mean. Two teams, with the same amount of losses, with one with the head to head. I’m going to lean towards the team who won the head to head if we’re saying who /deserves/ to be where. Florida losing to LSU doesn’t make Georgia look better.
Regardless of how Georgia is playing now, the only common teams they have this far, they both beat.
jay.cardea, based on just thethe record and nothing else, I agree.
But this is not the same team that lost to Florida. They are clearly a much improved team, especially with NT Jordon Davis back.
All I’m saying is they rank teams every week. Why not rank them on who is the best team at that time.
This is a funny argument to be making now. Now matter how much better Florida was playing after losing to A&M by 3 pts, everyone said A&M should be ranked higher because of the head-to-head. Now you’re trying to claim UGA should be higher and just brush aside the 16pt win head-to-head? Hilarious!!
Agreed Joe, but it was UF fans saying the head to head shouldn’t matter because UF was playing better than TAMU now. Funny huh?
Not correct at all JTF. It was A&M fans and all the haters who said head to head is the best way to decide a ranking, even if it was early in the season and the teams are playing differently. A&M needing help from zebras and lucky tipped TD to beat a struggling Auburn team that really should have been 3-5? We can talk about players and games being different all we want. But if the difference was head to head before, then it’s head to head now.
Not happening Tim.
JTF, maybe not. But how many times have we heard.
It’s about the 4 best teams. Why should that not continue into the 5-20?
How’s OS getting into the 2020 play-off? It’s not based on wins and losses, strength of schedule. They say, it’s based on the eye test.
With JT Daniels, Georgia’s out scoring Florida’s season average of 41 PPG. Slightly, but it’s higher.
Georgia is much healthier now, compared to when they played Florida. Georgia clearly has a better defense.
Why do they re-rank teams every week?
Georgia just played their most complete game of the year. Florida just played their worst.
The “eye test” tells me that at this time, Georgia is better than Florida.
All that may be true, but you just can’t discount the head to head. IMO. Plus, I don’t think the committee will give it that much thought. It really doesn’t matter right now.
Doubt it
Tim I think that this committee would take in the consideration of how both team were playing. That being said, what would the line be if they met on a neutral today ? No doubt that after a uf loss to a lowly (23pt.dog) lsu team at home, UGA would be the favorite.
doubt it, the comitte kept UF behind AM, so i’d expect them to the same to UGA and rightfully so!
USC has just as good of a case as OSU. It doesn’t matter what we thought *before* the season it matters what we think NOW.
USC has had to come back to win in most of their games. They haven’t dominated anyone. They had a last second win vs an Arizona team that just got run off the field 70-7 by ASU. I don’t agree with OSU being in the playoffs but there’s a difference between each team’s 5-0 record.
Wait – the current version of UGA annihilates a team that the committee said last week was one of the 25 best teams in the country, in their home stadium no less, but the same committee will penalize UGA for a mid-season loss to Florida (with Kyle Pitts) when they were starting the #3 QB?
Among the things the committee chairs have talked about that they consider, one is “watching the games” and using the eyeball test. At this point, it’s a hard call to say UGA is not currently performing as one of the very best teams in the country.
Mountain Dog.
Florida’s about to drop in the polls after Saturday, and if they get blown out, it may be a big drop.
At this point all I really care about is Georgia finishing strong by winning their bowl game. The final rankings will reflect a more accurate ranking.
Tim, that’s why the CFP ranking is important now – to get the very best bowl game.
Florida will drop Behind UGA with a loss to Bama no matter what they’re ranked right now..
I’m pretty sure Florida beat Missouri as well did they not?
Also UGA is two weeks removed from beating MSU by 7…
. . . while missing a ton of starters.
LMAO… How many players was MSU missing?
Covid has been rough on most teams this season..
Sure seemed to be the go-to explanation for Bama last year. And it was accurate.
UGA was decimated on D for that game, and was still reeling from the CP loss. And MSU played with a ton of heart. The last two games, with many of the starters now back and JT at QB, totally different animal.
Covid was Bama’s excuse last year?
You can’t blame missing players on barely beating a MSU team missing more players than you…
Nobody makes more excuses than UGA fans..
Right? “They played with heart” is something that gets taken into account in close Ws, not Ls. How do you measure that? Smdh Uga fans get more and more ridiculous every year.
Georgia has beaten a 2 win State team with less than 50 scholarship players by 7 at home and a Mizzou team that’s lost by double digits to both Bama and Florida. No. That doesn’t mean they’re performing as one of the top teams in the country. It just means they’ve played lesser opponents. If Georgia wanted to be considered one of the best teams, they should’ve win the games that matter. But like every other season Georgia failed to do so.
WITH Kyle Pitts???? GTFO dawgs put a cheap shot on him that took him out for more than the entire second half! (You might remember the penalty that hit came with??) What a joke!
The only way I see this season to make any sense is to have a 4 team playoff for the conference titles. Then have a 4 team championship playoff. With Covid remaking havoc and cancellations of games, reschedules everywhere who can make sense of the strongest 4 teams?
Marsh, Pretty sure we know who the top 3 teams are, Covid or not….. I believe OSU is the 4th and I also believe they should be pentalized for playing the schedule they did…..But if this is about the 4 best teams then its Bama, Clem, ND, OSU!
I think you nailed it Connor, but completely face planting to a 3-win LSU team in a game FLA knew darn well they controlled their own destiny should probably drop FL more than you have imo.
Sorry GA head to head means something so you loose this argument all day long
Yes, but what would happen if one were to simply ‘lose,’ ya ‘turd?
This is an accurate prediction and what I expect to see tonight. I get the argument that UF losing to a 3-5 team should drop them further but the committee put themselves in this position to rank them #8 because head-to-head does matter and UF did beat UGA by a lot. Personally, I would have TAMU at 4 because total games played does matter.
I’d disagree that Florida loosing helped the Aggies. We were rooting for a team to go in and play Bama close. Now our best win is going to be to a 3 loss team.
You are correct sir.
I agree with the head to head matters sentiments. I am not sure it’ll happen though as this commitee has seemingly tossed out the whole games matter bit.
Yeah, I’d like another crack at the Gators but unless 2020 somehow strikes and the Gator Bowl brings them back, it ain’t happening until October 30, 2021…which is to say it ain’t happening until then.
Bama is another matter. I think the Florida team Georgia played is still more or less the same team. While Georgia is certainly better than when they played Alabama, so is Alabama.
Anyway, it is a moot point, like arguing over who is number 9 or 10 in a poll where it doesn’t really matter that far down.
I’d have liked an expanded playoff that gives the top teams with 10+ games a BYE and would have the Ohio States and USC’s play a meaningful game and gives schools like Cincinatti a shot.
Loose- not rigidly fastened or securely attached
Lose- fail to win (a game or contest)
Hopefully this helps some people.
No way in the world, should OSU make the CFP. I don’t care if they win the B1G championship. In my opinion, A&M should be at number 4. I know that’s a bit controversial, but since Florida lost to LSU, A&M should be locked in at number #4. The committee probably thinks otherwise and will rank OSU at number 4. Only way A&M gets in is if Bama and Notre Dame win, because an OSU loss in unlikely.
Good grief. Anyone else listening to Herbie preach about why his Buckeyes should be in the playoffs? Surprised he didn’t bust into tears.