Predicting which 10 SEC players will have most lucrative third-party ad deals when new NIL rules start in 2021
In case you haven’t heard, college athletics as we know them are changing in 2021.
The NCAA’s support of a proposal to allow student-athletes to profit of their name, image and likeness (NIL) means that starting in the 2021-22 school year, we will see them doing third-party advertisements. That could also include autograph signings, meet-and-greets and more.
For guys like Ja’Marr Chase and Trevor Lawrence, this is a bummer. The assumption is that the 2020-21 season will be their last and they won’t get to profit off their name, image and likeness while they’re in school. Both obviously would have stood to make some pretty decent coin off ad deals (a Yahoo Sports article outlined how Lawrence could make between $500,000-$1,000,000 off third-party revenue sources if he stuck around in 2021-22).
But for guys like Derek Stingley and Bo Nix who won’t be draft-eligible until 2022, there are definitely dollars to be made.
With that in mind, I decided to take a look at which SEC players could make the most third-party money. Keep in mind that offensive skill-players from high-profile programs are the most likely choices — that’s how it is in pro sports — but there are a few exceptions. To make this list, one needs to have at least 2 years of eligibility left. It also helps if a player is going to be the starter going into 2020 so they can be a household name already by 2021, though there are also some exceptions to that, as well.
In other words, don’t be mad if this list is quarterback-heavy. Spoiler alert — it is.
So, here are the 10 SEC players who I expect to report the most third-party income on their 2022 tax returns:
Bo Nix, Auburn QB
In-state kid? Legacy? Former 5-star recruit? Potentially heading into his 3rd year as a starter? Yeah, Nix checks a lot of the boxes for a top third-party earner. Nix would be great as a pitchman for local restaurants (Gene Chizik does have his chicken finger restaurants “Louie’s”). Gus Malzahn had Nix address the media before he ever played a college down as a true freshman. If he takes the next step in 2020, he’ll be a national household name and unquestionably the most popular athlete in town.
Bryce Young, Alabama QB
Will Young be the starter in 2020? Alabama fans believe he will be. The only question is when the 5-star true freshman will get his opportunity. If he takes off with Steve Sarkisian in 2020, you can bet that Young will be well-known by all college football fans by 2021 (if he isn’t already). Think about how much money Tua Tagovailoa would have made as a junior this past year. Hundreds of thousands of dollars. Easy. Can Young’s popularity mirror Tagovailoa’s? It won’t be easy, but I wouldn’t bet against it.
Trey Sanders, Alabama RB
Has he played a college game? No. Is he expected to become the next great Bama back? Absolutely. Sanders has a big personality that would make him a popular pitchman. I could see him on a commercial saying, “Come to Tuscaloosa Chevy, where we steamroll the competition.” Not good? OK, you get it. The title of “Alabama running back” carries major monetary value, and Sanders could definitely be the guy to capitalize on that.
(Ignore the fact that this is from a Florida State recruiting video and tell me you can’t see Sanders’ infectious smile selling you that 2020 Tahoe.)
How much of a prime target is the #1 RB in the nation, Trey Sanders, (@6sixGod_ ) for FSU? Listen to why he had to give a shoutout to newlywed @coachwaltbell
Wall-to-wall recruiting updates from the Rivals 5-Star Challenge over on https://t.co/wBSINVAbvs pic.twitter.com/Q77e46vf3s
— Warchant.com (@Warchant) June 27, 2018
Derek Stingley Jr., LSU CB
Stingley is the non-offensive skill player who would roll in the dough. He wouldn’t get Chase money signing autographs, but the extraordinarily popular cornerback is already considered perhaps the best defensive player in college football heading into his sophomore season. The All-American will surely be in all the way-too-early mock drafts as a top-3 pick by then. If he doesn’t have places like Walk-On’s lining up to work with him, I’d be stunned.
George Pickens, Georgia WR
A dynamic, play-making receiver still has to improve on consistently getting separation from SEC secondaries, but Pickens has the potential to have a huge sophomore season. Why? He’s surrounded with better circumstances. He has an offense that’s now more conducive to receivers, a quarterback better fitting the ball into tight windows and a coordinator who isn’t afraid to attack downfield. His popularity stands to grow with more production and more viral moments in 2020.
Brock Vandagriff, Georgia QB
Yeah, let’s throw a 2021 recruit on here. Why? A few reasons. As we know, Jamie Newman is a 1-year deal at Georgia. That job will be open in 2021, and between Carson Beck, Dwan Mathis and Vandagriff, it could be totally up for grabs. Even if Vandagriff doesn’t win the job out of camp, he’s still a 5-star quarterback from Georgia who is already a household name in the Peach State. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to earn some money on the side the second he gets to Athens.
Harrison Bailey, Tennessee QB
Bailey is to Vol Twitter what Kylie Jenner is to the internet. He doesn’t have to do much of anything to go viral.
I’m not kidding:
Tennessee fans love them some Harrison Bailey.
This 4-second clip has been viewed over 77,000 times in 14 hours. pic.twitter.com/MDsN0lslIf
— SEC Mike (@MichaelWBratton) March 19, 2020
Yes, Bailey is already up there for the title of “most popular Tennessee player” and he’s been on campus for a few months. You better believe that kid could sell some BBQ in Knoxville. If he becomes the starter as a true freshman in 2020, he could have a case as the SEC’s highest projected third-party earner when 2021 kicks off.
Emory Jones, Florida QB
Will Jones be the starter by 2021? My guess is yes. Some Florida fans are waiting on him to take over the gig in 2020, but even if he doesn’t supplant Kyle Trask, Jones has 3 years worth of buildup. Gator fans have been waiting to see him run the offense since the moment he got on campus. He’ll have the billing as the first true Dan Mullen quarterback product in Gainesville, and even if he doesn’t have a start until 2021, he’ll be the most popular player on the team.
John Rhys Plumlee, Ole Miss QB
Yes, I believe Lane Kiffin will adjust his offense to fit Plumlee’s skill set. Yes, I’ll be super bummed if we don’t get at least 1 commercial of him playing the piano:
Ole Miss QB @PlumleeJohn sang Drops of Jupiter here in Jackson at the CSpire Conerly Award event.
Yes, I feel like the mom from Mean Girls. pic.twitter.com/a7RNzukndO
— Mackenzie Salmon (@mackenziesalmon) December 4, 2019
Oh, and did you know he plays baseball, too?!? Of course you did because you’re reminded of how perfect he is every time he touches the ball. Jokes aside, Plumlee is a superbly talented obvious choice to sell some stuff in Oxford, especially if he’s entering Year 3 as a starter in 2021.
If every Oxford business on The Square doesn’t try to sign that kid to some sort of pitchman deal, well, that’s just a wasted opportunity.
Jerrion Ealy, Ole Miss RB
Hey, speaking of 2-sport stars in Oxford, Ealy is all sorts of marketable. If you were a local sporting goods store, some sort of a play on Nike’s legendary “Bo Knows” campaign would make a lot of sense considering Ealy basically already did that:
Bat and pads
!!! pic.twitter.com/YYA5Am1jl5— Jerrion Ealy (@ealy_1k) January 28, 2019
Ealy and Plumlee could even tag-team some sort of do-it-all ad for a local sporting goods store. By 2021, he and Plumlee could potentially be one of the country’s top 1-2 punches. Ealy might be sold on becoming a professional baseball player instead of an NFL running back, but there’s no reason the former 5-star recruit can’t covet a nice chunk of change as a personable pitchman.
Rodrigo would have cleaned house.
No doubt. Especially if this rule was in place right after his interview with his helmet on. He’d get a huge deal from lenscrafters too and any local optometrist.
Free specs for life!
Yeah interviews are going to be a lot different, probably more like Nascar. “Well I have to thank LensCrafters, Cracker Barrel, AutoZone, Sherman’s Shrimp Boot Outfitters, blah blah blah.
How many games have Young, Vandagriff and Ealy played in the SEC? You couldn’t find 3 other guys who are actually starters in the league?
Buddy these are 5 star QBs, and Ealy being a 2 sport athlete has played plenty. You forgot to mention Jones too, how many games has he started? It’s simple math, QBs get the endorsement deals. 2 sport athletes make for easy endorsements as well. “You want a product with versatility? Jerrion knows a thing or two about versatility and he uses (product X)” I mean it writes itself.
Well at least Young is already enrolled but Vandagriff is not.
Keep counting your chickens before they hatch.
And Jones has played more than Young, Baily and Vandagriff combined
“You couldn’t find 3 other guys who are actually starters in the league?”
Your words, buddy. Apparently you couldn’t think of anyone either. Let me know when you are writing better articles on your own website.
I’m not at all worried about Vandagriff. It doesn’t undercut the logic used in the article one bit.
Ealy played in 12 games as a true freshman and racked up over 700 yards while splitting carries. If that doesn’t give a glimmer of hope for him as a 5 star running back then I don’t know what more you could ask for.
My mistake I meant Bailey not Ealy
Bama fan here and Jones will be the starter.
The correct answers is: all of them
The average fan can now help buy the best players! I’ll even pitch in a couple of Benjamins to sign that borderline 4* that’s been eyeing Georgia Tech.
That won’t be how this works. We are only going to be dealing with legitimate businesses, making business decisions.
Exactly. If anything this will help to keep the money exchanges to players above the table. Also I don’t think it will have the regional impact that some people think it will. With today’s technology you can film an endorsement commercial for a company based in Los Angeles from a studio in Baton Rouge. The only thing that worries me is that companies with university ties like Oregon and Nike could voluntarily choose to give more deals to players that pick “their” school. But for the most part large organizations aren’t as tied to a particular school as much as they are profits.
Got to disagree there a bit. Bryce Young has the starting QB for USC in SoCal?? Get the printing presses out.
But he didn’t sign there, even though he knew this was coming.
I can’t wait to see the entire defensive line building a deck in the next Yellawood commercial.
Still think it will be a factor going forward. When Young signed Cali’s law wasn’t going into effect until after he left. No one could have predicted that the stogy old NCAA would fold.
This just legitimized what T-Town Men’s Ware was doing. Average fans were paying hundreds of dollars for autograph sessions. Can that be done while they are recruits? No. But you’re crazy if you don’t think that’s going to be communicated during recruiting.
I don’t buy that. I mean, consider that businesses have gotten in trouble in the past for supposedly “hiring” athletes for summer jobs and either paying them for no work performed or for paying them exorbitantly more than market rate. This rule opens a Pandora’s box because it will be next to impossible for the NCAA to police it. Lots of latitude with things like what is arms-length. I can easily see boosters funneling money through their businesses to effectively buy players- no different from the current system, just much easier hide behind a veil of legitimacy. How will the NCAA have any clue whether or not an appearance happened or not?
This will simply make legal whats been going on for years, boosters paying the best players. Now it will simply be legal as the booster will have the player do a commercial or promotional appearance, but the effect will be the same. I guarantee the Ogeron and Saban and the others will have a recruiting pitch where they point out how many businesses they already have lined up wanting players to do promotional work. This will shift the competitive balance even farther in favor of the traditional football powers as boosters paying players is now fair game. Wouldn’t surprise me if in a few years there is a new position within each coaching staff of an administrative assistant that coordinates business requests for promotional appearances. It’s a sad day for the NCAA, which was already pretty pathetic.
Although Weagle99 is wrong on the how, its not hard to imagine recruiters saying and or showing off in the future “look at how much (insert previous 5 star stud) made when he attended our school. It also wouldn’t take much for schools to attempt to advertise for such players in indirect ways. In other words… the rich will get richer…
^^^ this
Think about it. It used to be suspicious if the star quarterback was driving around campus in a sports car. Now the dealer can say it was part of the endorsement deal!
Another messy outcome for this will be interference by shoe/apparel companies. They’ve already made basketball so dirty that the FBI had to get involved. Now we have to worry about agents steering recruits to schools with certain contracts.
This new rule’s effect on recruiting is going to be interesting.
Bilas had a good article on this yesterday. I recommend reading.
You have to think basically every starting QB in the SEC is going to make some money off this. UK basketball players, too. I can’t imagine what John Wall would have made.
Did make* lol
Fair point.
I know that people are going to call me a commie and explain capitalism but I think it suxes that the skill position players will profit. I also find it amusing that most of those that say it isn’t fair for the school to make money off the players but have no problem with the QB making “hundreds of thousands of dollars” while the center makes little to nothing. Having great coaches and recruiters will not be as important as who can set up the best deals. I wonder what people say when 5* players start going to schools who set up the best endorsement deals but are under developed. Trading in hundreds of thousands for the millions they could have made in the NFL. I’m not sure how helping a small % of players make money helps the team or sport.
I apologize in advance for the novelette.
I’m the farthest thing from a commie and definitely a free market capitalist. That said, people are ignoring the fact that college athletes, by accepting scholarships are freely agreeing to give up certain rights. While they may not be 100 percent happy with the contract they’re negotiating, nobody is forcing them to play college sports. At the end of the day, you have to believe these kids still choose to play because they are reaping some benefits by doing so. That said, college sports was never intended to be a minor league for the NFL and NBA, and taxpayers certainly shouldn’t be expected to subsidize such an arrangement.
I agree. It is called bartering you athletic skill for your education.
I am wondering how the name/well-known athletes can manage class/practice/film study/gym…along with the Personal-Appearances at the local Ford Dealership/Autograph Signing/Singing in the clubs and whatever else that may pop=up to Offer them $$$. Just a thought.
They’ll probably send their agents to class to take notes.
My guess is most of the….appearances…. from the student athletes will come during the offseason when it is more manageable.
Rogue tutors!
I think one of the positive, unintended consequences with this rule change is that we’ll see more guys returning for their 4th/5th years.
If a guy can make 5,6 figures while in college that could remove a lot of the financial pressure to leave for the NFL ASAP.
I can think of a few players that have left early because of financial hardships. Some made an NFL team, some didn’t.
When this new rule kicks in the SEC needs to look out for the Texas schools. If a small school like SMU can win big in the early ’80s , just wait till the Texas billionaires start paying players legally. Texas, Texas A&M really all the Texas schools are going to be hard to beat. I’m afraid the pony express is going to run again.
Dak,,,more then all of them.
nevermind,,,read the question wrong…
Why would only high profile QB’s and a select few others make much. Boosters, agents, coaches and even fans will be sending money to billy bobs ribs, beer and tacqueria to sign the entire defense to commercials for $50K each… its going to be a free for all with the highest bidders having the best players. Without enforceable rules that are actually enforced this is going to be a mess.
Some random thoughts, in no particular order:
1. There will be unintended consequences no one has thought of. There always are.
2. Will there be prohibitions against sponsorship by casinos and online gambling sites?
3. The traditional bag man networks may go the way of the buffalo, since defensible (and tax deductible) consumer advertising budgets are far bigger than any bag man ever paid to any prospect or his family (Cam Newton included).
4. Very few (1 or 2) kids per team are likely to get any significant advertising deals, but you could see several kids (10-12) driving new cars as the dominant new form of recruiting bribery. Many dealers won’t be able to justify the expense, so booster money will funnel into the dealers to get “laundered” back out to the players in the form of cars (which will be taxable income to the players, so they’ll need some cash too to pay the sales and income taxes). Ditto for family member and player apartments and houses.
5. But half the team will have all the free clothes they can wear.
6. To the extent that this whole thing is tied to economically defensible media advertising spends, the balance of power will shift to schools in populous states and large media markets. In the SEC, that’s Texas A&M (28 million pop., Houston two major metro markets), Florida (21 million pop., five major metro markets) and Georgia (10 million pop., Atlanta major metro market).
5. The major sponsors will be the current advertisers you see advertising on local news broadcasts: Car dealers, banks, health insurance companies, building products suppliers, pest control companies, home builders and personal injury attorneys. Plus Coca-Cola. Regions (bank), Morgan and Morgan (law firm), Great Southern (YellaWood), health insurers like Cigna and the aforesaid Coca-Cola will probably sponsor SEC players from multiple schools.
6. But this won’t get crazy because at the end of the day, people aren’t going to come out of the woodwork to throw money at college athletes. Just look at the local media endorsements and visibility today for pro athletes in cities with pro sports teams, or the endorsement deals for college football coaches… Very, very few pro athletes make significant money from endorsement deals.
Which is why I think the major impact of this will just be to legalize relatively low level (e.g., clothing, new car) recruiting bribery.
I do believe this will lead to more BLATANT twitter posts of guys with wads of cash! Imagine a recruit coming into town and there’s a car dealership that has a sign “Wanted – dealership spokesman – must be STARTING QB for Old U”! If the NCAA doesn’t have something in there about NO CONTACT until a guy is ENROLLED or NO CONTACT prior to a guy TRANSFERRING there will be a bidding war for top recruits! I still think it will lead to a lot of resentment and missed assignments – how much of YOUR body will you sacrifice to make that star RB look good for his next commercial?
I believe this may get off to a slower start than previously thought due to the lingering financial impact of the virus. It will take several years of difficult recovery for many of the businesses that would traditionally throw money at college athletes to return to a level healthy enough to justify the expense. Undoubtedly there will be pockets of big spending where boosters control or influence marketing decisions, but a business generally needs a return on advertising dollars. It remains to be seen what impact a 19 YO kid hawking your product has on revenues.
I do agree that the better-funded schools in more populous states will likely have an advantage. Dallas, Houston and Atlanta are 3 of the ten largest Nielsen media markets in the country, with Tampa and Miami not too far behind. To what degree schools in and near these markets get their arms around this new dynamic could be crucial in the first few years.
That said, I still don’t like it.
Bo Nix should come out with some Bo knows t shirts lol
I expected to see Jamar Chase in here.