SEC Championship Game predictions (and bets)
We have finally arrived at Championship Weekend which means it’s time for the final picks of the season.
If you missed this column the first few weeks of the season, SDS news desk editor Michael Bratton (@MichaelWBratton) and SDS Podcast co-host Chris Marler (@VerneFUNquist) make their weekly predictions for every game involving SEC teams.
Michael went 6-3 against the spread last weekend to bring his season total to 49-45-2 ATS. Chris also went 6-3 to bring his season total to 47-45-3 ATS.
Here is how the guys predict the 2019 SEC Championship Game:
LSU (-7) vs. Georgia * in Atlanta
Michael: This game just screams sucker bet to me for some reason. The public is always going to favor the team with the explosive and fun offense led by the likely Heisman Trophy winner but as cliche as it sounds, defense really does win championships. This is a classic showdown of the SEC’s best offense against the league’s best defense (statistically speaking) but will LSU be able to manage a hard-fought, low scoring game if the explosive plays don’t work in this game?
Auburn had success slowing down LSU’s offense and Georgia could have similar success if the Bulldogs can consistently matchup in coverage when the Tigers spread out the field. The biggest question for me heading into this matchup is the health of D’Andre Swift. If he’s anything close to 100 percent, Georgia can win this game. Jake Fromm has struggled at times this season but these are the type of games he seems to shine in the most.
Georgia is the team with more to play for in this game. The Bulldogs have to win this game for their national championship hopes to continue. Kirby Smart and his team have more big-game experience. The crowd will likely favor the Bulldogs considering this game is in Atlanta. All these things could play a difference come Saturday.
Having said all of that, I’ll take LSU to hang on for the win but they won’t cover on Saturday.
LSU 24 Georgia 20
Chris: Another year and another Top 5 matchup in Atlanta with the winner punching a ticket to the CFP. This should be a great matchup between what is, in my opinion, the best offense and defense in the country respectively. The key to this game seems pretty obvious: can UGA actually stop LSU’s offense AND can they actually start their own. UGA’s offense has struggled mightily during the second half of the season. However, they face an LSU defense that has allowed 37 points or more in 4 of 5 games away from Death Valley this season.
Regardless, the Dawgs have put up over 400 yards and 27+ points just once in their last 6 games, and Jake Fromm has completed less than 50% of his passes in 4 consecutive games. Yikes. The good news is that UGA is used to these games, as Jake Fromm has played in 5 SECCG or NY6/CFP Games in his career, and this will also be the 7th time in 11 years that Kirby has been on the sideline for the title game in Atlanta.
I love this UGA defense, and I love that Vegas isn’t buying into all the hype for another LSU blowout. And, I’ve spent hours trying to research and convince myself some miracle stat that will make me believe they can win. But, the bottom line is this: UGA is last in the SEC in INT’s (which they’ll need to force) and this offense has been less threatening than Ned Flanders in an MMA octagon. UGA won’t be able to keep up with this LSU offense and all their weapons that even against 4 Top 40 defenses have averaged 533 yards and over 40 points per game.
On the bright side UGA fans…Bama still lost.
LSU 38 Georgia 30
I’ll tell you one thing. If you disagree with me you are an absolute and complete idiot/uncultured swine.
This game will be decided by which team scores the most points, as well as who comes out on top…
Disagree. I believe whoever doesn’t score the least will win.
My bet is if this were true and false, you’re prediction would be 50/50
Does the SEC Championship even matter anymore? I have always believed this was the most important game of the year, but…The BCS, and then THE PLAYOFFS! YAY!! insisted on shoehorning the Roll Tiders in year after year without winning the SEC. And now everyone’s assumption is “well yeah, OF COURSE LSU should be in the playoffs, even if they lose to UGa.”
So does winning the SEC matter anymore? I hate the playoffs.
Score Predictions
Close Game:
LSU victory— 24-19
Georgia victory— 20-16
Blowout:
LSU victory— 35-9
Georgia victory— 24-7
Shootout:
LSU victory— 42-35
Georgia victory— 38-34
Explanation: Using the full capacity of the human brain, I have come up with a way to be 6 times more likely to guess the correct score than the rest of you.
Alabama has made the playoff without winning their conference once. Winning the SEC is still the most direct path to the playoff for any team in the country. Going undefeated in the SEC regular season is the most direct outside of winning a conference as a 1-loss team, and it still beats some of those paths due to a tougher schedule.
But I am pulling for LSU I hope they go all the way. I don’t believe having two sec teams in the playoff I think you should have to win the sec.
Amen.
LSU fans have been down that road before, on the losing end. Alabama was the better team in 2011. We didn’t think it was fair to have to play a rematch. We beat them, at their place, in the regular season. Why should they get a mulligan? But the two best teams in the country played that championship game. Now it’s the best four teams. LSU is one of them, but beating Georgia will remove all doubt. LSU’s players and coaches see this as a must-win game. They don’t even want to think about losing it. They are going to win this game. I absolutely believe that. For what it’s worth, I agree that you should have to win your conference. But the way the system is set up, … well, we know how it’s set up. If LSU loses and gets into the playoff, they are not going to say no.
I actually thought LSU was the better team that year …and with a better resume. Miles dna is two parts Leach …but also one part Muschamp. The better coach won that night, not the better team.
Then you don’t believe in having the best teams in the playoffs.
You do you.
I view it as, we are using the conference championship games as secondary tier of playoff games. Right now we have conference champions that go to play the best of 4 in the CFP. If we’re going down the road of conference champions don’t matter and only the best teams do, then what you are talking about is an 8 team CFP which is utterly ridiculous. It’s bad enough the 4 team CFP has destroyed bowl season as it is.
I completely agree. I love that college football has as unique a postseason as bowl season. It would be a shame to lose that.
Agreed.
LSU 31, Georgia 24
LSU 34
Georgia 20
LSU 30 LSUSMC blows Joe’s wanker
You’re just a sick and demented turd. I hope your mom sees what you are doing and writing so she takes your phone away again.
My mother is dead, a$$hat.
Nothing you say is believable. Never has been.
LSU needs to win this game by two scores. As long as we make the playoffs, we will play other teams with good defenses but better offenses. Gotta get ready for that.
MC, all they gotta do is win.You’re going against a team littered with future NFL draft picks.You should consider even a 1 point win fortunate. Ask bama how those “style” points they needed to make in the Iron Bowl worked out?
This is about winning a NC for LSU. Who knows how long it will be before we are in this position again. A decent win should move LSU to the #1 seed. That’s important with the way this playoff lines up.
I’m calling this game.. And it won’t be close.. LSU 45 – GA 17
Gatormike, you’re off the reservation. Only football teams that could score 45 on GA’s D are in the NFL. LSU might win, but it’s going to be a 4 qtr war.
UGA has only played against one good offense all year. Trask threw for over 250 yards against them, and UF has a weak OLine and no running game. LSU doesn’t have those problems. Cager was the only UGA receiver that was productive, and he’s out. UGA has an outstanding defense and I surely expect them to slow down the LSU offense, but I don’t see how they score enough to make it a one score game. We will find out on Saturday.
Notre Dame has a top 20 offense, too.
Outside of that, you’re right. Nobody has seen UGA v an “elite” offense.
ND is top 20 in scoring. 46th in total yards.
Neither total yards or points are the best judges of an offense, imo, because yards can depend on how many plays you’re running, and points allowed is also tied to offense and special teams.
So I feel like Yards per play is the best single stat. Notre Dame is at 6.2 yards, which ties for 21st in the country. They also played a harder than average schedule, so I would call them top 20. They actually have better offensive efficiency than Florida.
Florida played both Auburn and Georgia and Auburn’s D is WAY WAY better than Georgia’s. Who is the only D that was literally able to stop LSU this year? That’s right Auburn. Didn’t score enough points to win, but it was the only defense that even remotely stopped the LSU offense. Georgia won’t even come close to that.
I absolutely expect to see LSU score 40+ in this game.
This makes no sense.
Auburn held florida to 24.
UGA held Florida to 17.
If you’re comparing Auburns defense against common opponents UGAs defense is better.
I’m curious how you arrived at that conclusion. In the two games you are reference where Florida played both teams Trask’s completion percentage and passing yards were basically identical and in both games and threw for 2 touchdowns however against Georgia, Florida was only able to rush for 44 yards (not including -22 for trask) and against Auburn, Florida was able to rush for 168 yards. Florida won the game against the “WAY WAY better Defense? Yes Auburn has slowed LSU this year but we do not know how UGA will do this weekend till the end but to make that claim that Auburn’s Defense is WAY WAY better is just insane.
bdawg don’t worry about gromit. He’s a troll. Look at his comment section. All he does is say UGA is going to get blown out while making stupid claims about random nonsense. Then he just starts name calling. He’s a child.
Ahh. I have followed SDS for a while but am finally getting into the commenting; gotta learn who the trolls are.
Unfortunately some of the biggest trolls on here are dawg fans but every fan base has some. You’ll learn who they are pretty quick.
Georgia d is for real don’t care who they played
You’re just about the only LSU fan that wants to recognize it. I personally don’t think UGA will win but the idea that LSU is going to blow our doors off is kinda silly. Could it happen? Sure, it’s football anything can happen. But to just expect it is nothing short of arrogance.
Curious Gatormike what was your prediction for the UGA Uf game? 45-17 is ridiculous. I think your butthurtitis is impairing your thought process. LSU may very well win but it isn’t going to be a blowout.
Just because you’re mad that LSU is going to shove Georgia’s rectum up into it’s throat this Saturday doesn’t mean you should be making personal attacks against people. It’s the holiday season after all, what would Santa Claus say to that?
What “personal attack” did I make? I hope you don’t disappear on Saturday like gaturd fans did after Jax
You’re a real peach
Guy at work bet a legit 1000 bucks on Georgia in this game. Straight up. Idiot.
Hope he buys you a drink with his winnings! You’ll need it!
There’s a difference between being a fan of your team and being a totally braindead retard. You went full retard. Never go full retard.
About that personal attack thing….hypocrite
@UGADAWG78 yeah, keyboard warriors. Every interactive webpage has them.
LSU–31, Georgia–23
Look at all of your weak score predictions. We will see who is right come Saturday…
What I hope for: UGA 23 LSU 17.
What I expect: LSU 35 UGA 20.
I agree – UGA is a really good team, but LSU seems unstoppable this year.
They should change the playoff rules and only take the conference champion. And here’s why. Notre Dame (Independents) shouldn’t be able to “get in” without playing in a CCG.
Look at the 2018 season and the eventual champions path to winning the championship.
It’s all about the best 4 teams – right? Well I’m not so sure the real best team won and here’s why. Georgia had to play a very physical SEC championship game against Auburn. Clemson and Oklahoma also had to play for their conference championships.
Meanwhile, the other three playoff teams were playing their 13th games CCG’s, Alabama got rewarded for finishing 2nd in their division. Alabama got to stay home and get a full week of rest, and game planning for the other teams in the playoffs.
The final result – a 26-23 by the skin of their teeth win in the NCG. Was that extra game Georgia had to play the difference?
I think it was. It was a positive advantage for Alabama, and that is a fact nobody can deny.
Why would we reward any team with a bye into the playoff because they finished 2nd place in their division – thereby giving them an unfair advantage over the other three playoff teams?
So let’s say (just hypothetical) Oklahoma had 2 out of conference games against Michigan State and Georgia and got blown out both games and then lost 2 games in their conference, was not ranked, but won their conference championship. I know all of that is unlikely but possible. Georgia and LSU went undefeated all season and met in the SEC Championship game ranked #1 and #2 and Georgia lost by 3 in 4 overtimes. You are saying in that scenario that Oklahoma should make the playoffs instead of Georgia?
tim48169. My point is don’t gift any team an unfair advantage by granting them a (week off) bye into the playoffs.
If Oklahoma and Texas or Georgia and LSU win their divisions and play for the conference championship and one finishes 13-0 while the other is 12-1 and they are both clearly 2 of the best 4 teams, then let the 12-1 division champion in.
Just don’t reward a division loser with a significant advantage going into the playoffs. If you don’t win your division – and – play that 13th game (conference championship) you can’t qualify for the playoffs…
But your very first sentence was “They should change the playoff rules and only take the conference champion.” My point is some divisions are weak and winning that division doesn’t necessarily mean that team is one of the best. It needs to be the 4 best teams. Winning your division should be a factor but not a requirement. Florida did not win their division but is clearly better than other teams that won their division in other conferences.
You’re about to play LSU in the SEC Championship game. Will there ever be a day when UGA fans stop talking about Bama?
Altide, you’re the one who’s ‘trying to make my comment about that team from the West, who is 0 for their last 3 against ranked teams.
Sorry but nobody’s thinking about that team these days.
If you scroll up just a bit, you can literally watch yourself talk about Alabama, still whining about how they beat UGA.
Not til they beat them, alatide
The problem with purely talking about the “best teams” is that that is entirely subjective.
Let’s be honest, there’s people in the SEC who think the 4 “best teams” all play in the SEC. Alabama fans tend to think theyre automatically one of the 4 best teams no matter what.
In spite of what the committee says, I think it’s more about resume, data, and the 4 most deserving teams. And that’s the way it should be. Nobody can agree on the “best” teams. We all have bias.
Replacing the word “best” with “deserving” doesn’t make things any easier. It’s still a subjective assessment. Which conference(s) champion doesn’t deserve to get in? It ultimately will get back to which conferences you think are the “best” and which aren’t. Which one loss conference champion is the best? Utah or Oklahoma? You end up choosing the best which, yes, is subjective.
You make a good point there. That’s why I thought all along the best solution wasn’t a playoff, but rather do these two things with the BCS:
1. Make everyone play a regular bowl game so that any undefeated team will have to play a top 10 team in their bowl game, thus ending any notions that team “hasn’t played anybody,” and then after bowl season (require all bowl games to be played by Jan. 1) determine which two teams play for the national championship.
2. Make a list of “tiebreakers” to establish a pecking order for determining who gets to play for the national championship, for example:
A. If there are only 2 unbeaten teams after bowl season, regardless of conference, those two play for the national title.
B. If there are more than 2 unbeaten conference champions, but only two are from a Power 5 conference, then the two unbeaten Power 5 champions get precedence over the Group of 5 teams to play for the title.
C. If there are 3 unbeaten Power 5 champions, then strength of schedule/strength of record is the tiebreaker to determine which two play for the title.
D. If there are only 1 or 0 unbeaten conference champions, then apply these same rules to all 1 loss conference champions.
That’s one take yes. Another take is Alabama was just the better team and Georgia has 4th and Dumb as a head coach.
I’m with you that a Conference Champion should carry more weight. But if you’re looking at 2 or 3 teams for that #4 slot …take the best team – if it’s fairly obvious. In the year you referenced it was.
The “extra week” of rest is just an excuse. I remember in ‘06 when UF hammered OSU, some CFB media nerds were actually arguing that the bucknuts had a disadvantage because their regular season ended a week before Florida’s. The 41 day layoff hurt their momentum as opposed to UF’s 33 days. It’s a weak argument on both sides.
LSU wins big by a large margin in this game. I don’t see it close with Burrow having his was throwing the ball!
“Burrow having his way throwing the ball!”
You mean like he did against Auburn? We will see…
Lol burrow was 32/42 for 321 yds, 1 td – 1 int. Another 30 rushing (including sacks) and a TD. They had 2 FANTASTIC goalline stands. Credit to them. But Georgia doesn’t have the rush Auburn did and auburn elevated to make some spectacular plays, including a pick on a 50/50 ball…. And Joe STILL had a better day than Fromm has all year.
Yeah everyone thinks burrow played like crap vs them, but he just had less yards per pass and one TD. Though give credit to that auburn d.
“and I love that Vegas isn’t buying into all the hype for another LSU blowout”
Seems like an “expert” would understand that Vegas does not try to predict outcomes, it tries to get equal action on both sides.
No, but the people betting, which moves the line, know the deal. If the crooked nose guys starting betting one way or the other, they know.
DAWGS role 24-21
Geaux Tigers.
LOL
21-13 LSU leads at the half
42-30 LSU wins after letting off the gas late.
Borrow throws for 300+ and 4 TDs and 1 INT.
Fromm throws for 300 and 3 TDs.
And BAMA whines that the deserve to jump UGA in rankings even though their best 2 wins are TENNESSEE and A&M. Hopefully, Saban decides to sit out the bowl game and Coach Lyle coaches them to a big Citrus Bowl win and the fan base demands Sgt Carter take over the red team’s clearly declining program so he can build them a new brick mailbox!
LSU ain’t scoring 42 and UGA isn’t getting to 30.
LSU will score 21 in a quarter in this game…and I’m thinking Fromm throws 2 4th quarter TDs.
Most importantly, Bama needs to let Coach Lyle takeover their obviously declining program. They are in need of a nice brick mailbox.
I think UGA will have 7 interceptions and run for 500yards. Am I doing this right?
Only defense that really has slowed down LSU is Auburn’s and Georgia’s D is nowhere close to Auburn’s.
lol ok buddy
Georgia’s pass rush is not as strong. Auburn has a great d line, which really made burrow have to throw more short passes. Coulda had 6 more points had they just taken the three points at the goal line, but that’s in the past. Georgia’s defense is better than Auburn’s as a unit and it’s obvious. Hope LSU can have success on Saturday.
28-17 LSU wins
Shut it ben
At least he ain’t predicting a 50-10 game like some people