Ranking SEC offenses entering the 2016 season
Since half of the SEC is still unsettled at quarterback, offensively it may be a bit of a crap shoot in 2016.
Arkansas and Mississippi State were Nos. 2 and 3, respectively, in the league in total yards last season. But Brandon Allen is no longer a Hog. Dak Prescott has left Starkville. You don’t just replace those guys.
Fortunately, running the football shouldn’t be too much of a problem for several teams. Even with Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry now in the NFL, not a lot of conferences can compete with Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb, Jalen Hurd and others. Ralph Webb might be Vanderbilt’s all-time leading rusher by November.
Unlike other conferences — I’m looking at you, Big 12 — they actually play defense in the SEC. You can’t just fall out of bed and throw for 400 yards. As a result, it takes more than stats to rank these schools.
Here are our top 5 offenses in the league as we set up the season. These squads can score early and often.
5. alabama
For the third consecutive campaign, Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban is looking for a new starting quarterback.
Yes, Jake Coker was at the controls when ‘Bama won its fourth national championship in seven years, but to call him irreplaceable would be incorrect. He want undrafted in April and likely never starts an NFL game.
Cooper Bateman appears to be the leader in the clubhouse — he actually started the Ole Miss game ahead of Coker in 2015. David Cornwell is still in Tuscaloosa, though. Blake Barnett generates some headlines here and there. Even true freshman Jalen Hurts has impressed, albeit mostly for his ability in the weight room.
As for the skill positions, Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris were both five-star tailbacks in high school. Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart catch anything thrown their way. Tight end O.J. Howard is a beast, too.
Even with All-American center Ryan Kelly now a memory, left tackle Cam Robinson anchors a mauling O-line.
4. tennessee
The media’s pick to come out of the East this year, the Volunteers return seemingly everyone that matters.
Offensively, that begins with Joshua Dobbs under center. He’s far from an accomplished passer and needs to make more plays downfield. But his weapons are improving, plus he’s a terrific runner off the read-option.
The aforementioned Hurd is a between-the-tackles battering ram at 6-foot-4 and 240 pounds. Alongside the otherworldly Fournette, he’s a good bet to be first-team All-SEC by season’s end. Backing up Hurd (below) is Alvin Kamara, who would start for a lot of programs — maybe even a few in conference. He’s an ideal complement.
Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
The receiving corps features so many names, but a true Alpha dog needs to emerge. No returning wideout in Knoxville caught more than 31 passes a season ago. Is it Josh Malone? Josh Smith? Preston Williams? Someone else? We’ll see.
The Vols rank ahead of the Tide due to all of their experience. There’s room to grow through the air, though.
3. lsu
Another offense that runs so much better than it throws, the Bayou Bengals will lean heavily on Fournette.
Unlike Alabama last year, which was forced to feed Henry the ball at a borderline-inappropriate pace, the Tigers have Derrius Guice behind Fournette on the depth chart. He was productive last season in spot duty.
Nevertheless, LSU needs to do more than run the rock with Fournette 25-30 times per contest if the College Football Playoff is a legitimate goal. There are no excuses left for Brandon Harris. Few QBs in the league last year were so effective one series but so ineffective the next — consistency, please. It’s time now.
It’s not like Harris doesn’t have capable pass catchers. Malachi Dupre and Travin Dural will both hear their names called in the draft one day. They have to reel in more than 71 balls combined.
But in the end, Fournette single-handedly vaults the Tigers up the rankings. He’s once-in-a-decade unique.
2. texas a&m
By the numbers, the Aggies were only a middle-of-the-pack offense in terms of scoring and yardage in 2015.
However, they thew the ball quite well despite mediocre quarterback play from Kyle Allen and Kyler Murray. Having receivers named Christian Kirk (below), Speedy Noil, Josh Reynolds and Ricky Seals-Jones certainly helped.
Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports
Allen and Murray are gone, but the fearsome foursome of wideouts returns intact. Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight — he of the Sugar-Bowl-upset-of-Alabama fame — won the job during spring practice and has already assumed a leadership role within the locker room. This aerial attack could be dynamite in a hurry.
At Media Days, coach Kevin Sumlin talked about wanting to run it better, even with the departed Tra Carson rushing for 1,165 yards last season. Keith Ford, another former Sooner, was originally a five-star signee.
College Station has also been a breeding ground for offensive tackles. Expect the trench play to be solid.
1. ole miss
The Rebels lost their leading rusher, leading receiver and both of their bookend blockers from a year ago.
But having the best arm in the league by a long shot can make up for many perceived deficiencies elsewhere. Chad Kelly can become the first signal caller in SEC history to throw for 4,000-plus yards more than once.
Even with Laremy Tunsil and Laquon Treadwell leaving Oxford early to become first-round draft picks, coach Hugh Freeze has recruited another class of potential first-year contributors. Gregory Little is the likely starter at left tackle as a true freshman. A.J. Brown may catch plenty of passes right out of high school.
In the backfield, Jaylen Walton’s 730 yards shouldn’t be hard to replicate. Akeem Judd and Jordan Wilkins got 70-some carries each in 2015. Kelly is an underrated runner, too — both designed and just scrambling.
Freeze probably won’t win games this season with defense. It’ll be with Kelly shredding enemy secondaries.
MISSING THE CUT
Arkansas: Austin Allen might end up being as good or better than his older brother, but he’s yet to throw a pass that matters. Alex Collins and Hunter Henry are gone, too.
Auburn: Perhaps John Franklin III is the next Nick Marshall. Or maybe not. There’s a lot to like about Jovon Robinson running the ball, though.
Florida: Completely hitting the reset button at quarterback, two-time transfer Luke Del Rio looks to be the guy. He needs to find Antonio Callaway more often than Treon Harris did.
Georgia: On the ground, the Dawgs can be elite if Chubb and Sony Michel return healthy. While there may be five stars next to his name, Jacob Eason hasn’t done anything yet.
Kentucky: Goodbye, Patrick Towles. Hello, Drew Barker. Both are former Bluegrass State players of the year in high school. Hopefully, Barker realizes his potential. Towles never did.
Mississippi State: Prescott will no longer be taking the shotgun snaps from center. That’s enough to keep the Bulldogs off this list for now.
Missouri: The Tigers were nothing short of dreadful offensively a season ago. Drew Lock was overmatched as a true freshman. There’s nowhere to go but up from here.
South Carolina: Not nearly as heralded as Eason, Brandon McIlwain might be the starting QB directly out of high school. Eason has help around him. McIlwain doesn’t just yet.
Vanderbilt: Mentioned above, Webb may be the best back in the SEC not named Fournette, Chubb or Hurd. Kyle Shurmur is now the unquestioned No. 1. He needs to elevate the passing game.
John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.
Henry averaged 26 carries a game. LF averaged 25 carries a game.
Alabama had a capable passing attack in 2015. LSU didn’t. The Tide actually won games when Henry wasn’t single-handedly destroying people. The Tigers didn’t stand a chance unless Fournette carried them. If Saban had any real faith in the backups behind Henry, then he wouldn’t have been given 90 attempts in a seven-day span against Auburn and Florida. Guice was much more impressive than anything behind Henry.
Agreed on everything
So are you trying to convince me or yourself? My statement just go against bama was forced to feed the ball to Henry. He averaged one more carry a game than LF….Drake had more carries than either of the LSU backups and he was injured for part of the season. If you have something that’s working why not use it? LSU seems to have done something similar..
Good List. The only adjustment that I might make would be swapping Tenn and LSU. If for no other reason, then Dobbs>Harris.
Debatable. Dobbs has a lot more experience than Harris, yet Harris, in his first year as starter, topped Dobbs in QB rating and yards per game. This argument about Dobbs being obviously better just doesn’t hold up. Yet he gets the positive hype, while everyone is down on Harris.
Its warranted. Dobbs is easily the better runner. Dobbs was the best running QB in the SEC last year. Had better rushing numbers than Dak and much better than Harris. Harris has better WR tandem right now, but that is the only advantage he holds. Dobbs has two games of 300 yards passing and over 110 yards rushing. Only two other players (Tebow, Manziel) have ever accomplished that feat, and they only did it once a piece. Dobbs has done it twice. This is the difference in the two. While neither Dobbs or Harris is spectacular through the air, Dobbs has proven that he can be ranked opponents with his arm. Harris has yet to prove he can. Ask any fan of a team that isn’t UT or LSU and 98% of the time they would pick Dobbs if they had to choose between him and Harris.
*beat
LSU’s o-line is probably 100 percent better than Tennessee’s right now. Dobbs doesnt usually have that much time to throw so he runs. Put a good o-line in front of him and probably different story. Both teams OCs suck.
Ole Miss and A&M should be terrific through the air, but haven’t really been know to light it up on the ground since Freeze and Sumlin have been around at each school. Could be a detriment to their stout passing attack if they can’t start running the ball better. It doesn’t help that both lost their leading rusher from last year.
Exactly!!
As Freeze noted in a recent interview, the read option really skews the numbers. He may call 30 option plays and only 10 or so go with a run. It’s all about what the defense gives you. The offense was top of the SEC last season and I don’t think an improved run game makes much of a difference. Even without a great run attack last year and Kelly still passed for over 4000 yards. If OM finds a stout ground attack it will be the scariest offense in the country.
Maybe he choose to go pass-option more because he didn’t trust the running game. Which would make sense considering how sub-par OM’s rushing game has been since Freeze’s arrival.
Ole Miss was #2 in the SEC with 5.1 yds/att !!!
With 29 rushing TDs, right up there with #2 Bama which had 33 rushing TDs (and Bama had about 180 more att.).
On paper it seems that the SEC really doesn’t have a complete offense just yet. There are many teams with a solid running or passing game, but no teams are elite in both aspects.
1: tamu
2: ut
3: lsu
4: Uga
5: ole pi$$
I’m not getting the LSU pick. What has changed? Same HC, same OC, and same QB. As good as Fournette is, if Brandon Harris can’t get it done through the air most SEC defenses can shut down the run. Maybe Harris steps it up, if he does they may be the number 1 but it’s still too big a question mark this early for a number 3.
It’s just the overwhelming faith I have in Fournette. Your’e right, though — little else has changed. But if Fournette is even better as a junior, he can cover up a lot of flaws.
I’m not necessarily saying LSU will have a top 5 offense. But some things have changed. If everyone stays healthy (never happens), we won’t be playing 3 true freshman along the offensive line, a backup TE, and backup freshman FB, a first time starter at QB, and an OC coaching from the box due to an illness. We aren’t a Big 12 offense and we aren’t playing Big 12 defenses. But there are reasons for optimism. A Tennessee fan should understand that after watching an entire team of Butch-recruited freshman have to grow up on the field, peaking as a pre-season East favorite.
Unless Harris improves dramatically LSU will struggle to finish top 5 offenses in SEC. By the end of last season teams didn’t even pay attention to LSU passing game and LSU struggled to score.
I think that what will be interesting to see is if Fornette can not just pick-up where he left off… but can he go further. Last year he seemed to run out of gas toward the end of the season- I think it was because of stiffer competition AND that the LSU offense was one dimensional. Looking forward to seeing him play again this year.
I think it was a combination of things. 1.)Alabama, Arkansas and Ole Miss were great against the run last year and did enough to stop Fournette without having to load the box every play. 2.) Harris is not the guy at QB. LSU has highly rated WR’s on the team but Harris can’t make the tough throws. His accuracy was really bad (barely over 50%) and that makes it hard to pick up a third and long through the air when the defense knows you have to pass. 3.) LSU struggled when playing from behind by double digits. Again, this goes back to Harris and his inability to move the sticks through the air. If LSU can’t run the ball and eat the clock, they are usually playing the other team’s style of football. 4.) Injuries. LSU lost several linemen down the stretch if I recall correctly.
Fournette will continue racking up huge yardage and scoring TD’s, that’s a guarantee. The only way he has a production drop off this year, aside from an injury, is if the passing game comes to life or LSU struggles to keep games tight enough to use the running game as much as they’d like.
don’t totally disagree, but I’ll add that in the games that Fournette was great, Harris was d*mn good too. The common denominator is the offensive line. We did have some guys go down, but it was more than that. Even the starters were outplayed in the trenches. Harris was constantly running for his life and playing with a sports hernia (took some shots against Alabama, the following week Arkansas had FOUR first half sacks.) Harris must improve, be he can’t do it if he’s laying on the ground. Poor trench play/injury should have been first on this list. It will improve the accuracy, the consistency, the confidence. That’s what Harris lacks. As the author pointed out, no one could look so good on one drive and so bad the next like Harris did.
I’m just not understanding the LSU love. Yes they have talent, but talent is always there. They struggled against better defenses the past couple years and will continue to do so until Brandon Harris (or someone else) gives opponents a reason to respect their passing attack.
Hog you hit the nail on the head. Agree 100 percent.
5: Questions at QB, RB. Talented but new-to-position center. Lots of talent and depth at O-line and WR/TE.
4: Need to find WRs to generate a legit downfield threat. Very strong run game with QB and RB.
3: Best RB in conference, great backup, good O-line, at least 2 good WRs. Very, very large questions at QB, and with OC/HC play-calling.
2: New but experienced QB, may need time to get into rhythm with WRs. Great WR corps. Very badly need to find a run game.
1: Best QB in conference. Talented but less-experienced WR corps, lost #1 WR. Questions on O-line, but have a lot of potential there. Needs to find a run game, even in pass-heavy option offense.
I think that each of these 5 have questions, and some of this is measured in potential. If any of them get it together like they could, they’re all going to be really, really good offenses, and they all have a higher ceiling than pretty much any other offenses in the SEC. AR/AU/UGA/UF all have a lot of potential, but more questions and issues than the top-5. AR has lost a lot more overall at QB/RB/TE and Oline. AU is a run-first option offense, with questions at RB and Oline, and is more dependent on finding a certain kind of running QB that can sometimes throw and they don’t know if they have that yet, which makes their QB questions a bit more important than other schools. UGA: QB could be a true freshman, or a mediocre upperclassman, who knows? with their RBs, and they need to find playmakers to catch passes. UF: LDR needs to really grab that QB job, they need pass catchers very, very badly, and they’re figuring out the run game as well.
Those four teams just have more and more severe questions at important places compared to the rest, who have at least one spot where it makes up for a lot(Bama WRs, UT QB/RB, LSU RBs, TAM WRs maybe QB, OM QB).
AU doesn’t really have any questions on OL or at RB. They’re pretty stacked and should be better than last year…especially since they have two real FBs and a real TE this year. The only questions for Auburn’s offense are at QB and WR. Two really big questions though.
I would say we are unsure at Tackle. The middle of our line is as good as any team in the country. But we just moved a center to LT and our RT is not going to be the strong point of our offense by any means. But you are right, QB and WR are major questions. We have the talent at WR, but they are all true freshmen unfortunately.
All these people questioning LSU? They must be Bama fans right?
Honestly, I would have it this way:
1.) Ole Miss
2.) Texas A&M
3.) Bama
4.) Tenn
5.) LSU
I think Auburn ends back up at the top this year though after Gus takes the reins back.
I think Auburn’s defense will be their best offense. They have all the talent in the world on the defensive line. If they can win the turnover battle and keep the ball away from the other team it will make any offensive deficiencies they may have.
LSU Wide Receivers always have such cool names. Travin Dural, Malachi Dupre, Early Ducette, Reuben Randle, Odell Beckham, Trindon Holliday, Jarvis Landry, Dwayne Bowe. I assume it is a Louisiana thing.
I love all those cajun and creole names that always pop up on LSU’s roster year after year.
Ha! Thats a great point Bacon.. they do all have very cool names. (seriously)
Imagine how cool they would be if they had a legit passing attack too. There aint nothing about a WR blocking on a “toss”-sweep-up-the-middle.
LSU and Tennessee are in the same boat. They can run, but if the run game is shut down…….game over. I see Dobbs being a 1000 percent better passer than LSUs Harris. Dobbs needs a good QB coach and OC. Bama always has a dang good offense. Texas A&M has a question mark besides their QB. Knight was a good QB at Oklahoma but you never know if a new offense and new team. Ole Miss lost a heck of alot of talent on offense and are replacing key people. Chad Kelly is great but who knows with the new guys that are coming in. Really the list should of looked like this:
1. Tennessee
2.Ole Miss
3. Bama
4. Texas A&M
5. LSU
5b. Georgia
So you hate Debord, but put his offense first in the league. Alrighty then.
Yeah I hate Deboard. Sorry Dobbs, Hurd, and Kamara ARE Tennessee’s offense not Deboard. Just like Fournett is LSUs offense not Cam Cameron. Those 3 make Deboard look good. When somple truth is all 3 break the 1st hit at the line of scrimmage and fight, claw, and earn every yard they get. If UT had Worley at QB again and Lane at RB, Deboard would be a sitting duck. Old sitting duck.
I put Dobbs,Hurd, and Kamara 1st in the league. Dobbs has the heart of a warrior and wills Tennessee to win…..not Deboard.
Jon- How do u figure that Ole Miss won’t be winning games with their defense? You should know that OM has one of the best DLs in the SEC and returns both starting CBs, plus they get back Tony Conner at safety. OM’s front seven is going to be nasty and the secondary can only improve from last year. How do you not know this being the senior editor at SDS?
How many years of passing game futility is it going to take for people to admit that LSU
wont win anything until they can throw the ball. You certainly cant put them in the top five offenses when they only have half of one.
Exactly. Let them get a white boy that can sling the rock again and watch out. Truth hurts.