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Writers can frame preseason predictions in one of three ways.
- Please the audience. This is somewhat impossible, because some segment of some fan base always is going to be critical of any ranking or prediction. But there are safe, consensus choices and there are bold, original ones. One proven strategy is to avoid going against the grain.
- Be edgy. When I say edgy, I mean being different on purpose. A cousin to the radio “shock jock,” this strategy banks on discussion-provoking selections sure to inspire strong opinions. Whether or not the rankings are accurate is secondary to the conscious, intentional decision to avoid cookie-cutter choices.
- Be as accurate as possible. Whether the predictions are safe or bold is secondary to analysis that’s as accurate and unbiased as possible. One of the keys to this strategy is to identify false assumptions, whether those originate from the media at large or the fans. Take out the emotion and try hard to find the reality. (As an aside, this is the strategy of professional sports gamblers.)
If a writer doesn’t go with strategy three, he or she is letting the readers down.
With that in mind, after a few hours of thought and research, I think Auburn quarterback Jeremy Johnson has the best chance of any SEC player to win the Heisman Trophy in 2015. Yes, even better than Mississippi State quarterback Dak Prescott.
I think Prescott is more likely to have a Heisman-level season than Johnson. He’s the more proven and more mature player. But team performance is critical, and I trust 2015 Auburn more than I trust 2015 Mississippi State. It won’t be surprising if the Bulldogs just can’t win enough games to keep Prescott relevant for the award, nor will it be surprising if Auburn wins an SEC title.
More to the point, Prescott and Johnson face each other in Auburn early in the SEC season. The Tigers almost certainly will enter the game as favorites. If Auburn wins that revenge game, and Johnson plays well, it’s going to give him an advantage.
As for the rest of the SEC, there are some outstanding running backs in the conference right now. But it’s darned difficult to win the Heisman Trophy as a non-quarterback these days, and this isn’t a list ranking the best players.
Here are the five SEC players most likely to contend for this year’s Heisman Trophy. Keep in mind that many of the advantages and disadvantages listed below are based on the outstanding “10 Heismandments,” introduced by HeismanPundit.com a few years ago.
1. QB JEREMY JOHNSON, AUBURN
Advantages
- Plays QB
- Upperclassman (junior)
- May hit traditional Heisman Trophy benchmarks for dual-threat QBs if the Tigers call enough downfield passing plays: 3,500 passing yards, 35+ combined touchdowns and a 140+ QB rating
- Schedule presents plenty of opportunities for big, visible performances on national TV
- Plays within a Gus Malzahn offense
- Auburn looks like a strong SEC and potentially a national contender
- WR Duke Williams returns
Disadvantages
- Little national name recognition entering the season
- Will start behind several big national names on most Heisman lists
- Will get discredited as a product of Auburn’s offensive system
- Plays for a team with a strong running game
- Must prove he can transition from backup to one of the best quarterbacks in the country every single week
Key Games: vs. Mississippi State (Sept. 26), vs. Georgia (Nov. 14), vs. Alabama (Nov. 28)
Will Contend If: He is a better downfield passer than Cam Newton and Nick Marshall during their college days and the Tigers contend for a College Football Playoff spot all season. Johnson has good straight-line speed, but isn’t as natural a runner as the two Malzahn/Auburn predecessors. If Malzahn allows him to pile up passing numbers, rather than continuing to rely on players like Jovon Robinson and Roc Thomas with the read-option, the 6-foot-5 Johnson has a chance. If Auburn wins the SEC West, those chances get incrementally better.
Bovada Odds: 20/1
Realistic Chances: 12.5 percent
2. QB DAK PRESCOTT, MISSISSIPPI STATE
Advantages
- Plays QB
- Senior with national name recognition
- Not an obvious product of his team’s offensive system (i.e. Baylor QBs)
- Should hit traditional Heisman Trophy benchmarks for dual-threat QBs: 3,500 passing yards, 35+ combined touchdowns and a 140+ QB rating
- Schedule presents plenty of opportunities for big, visible performances on national TV
- Will get bonus points/credit if Mississippi State competes in the SEC West after losing so many starters
Disadvantages
- Doesn’t play for a national title contender or a traditional power
- Mississippi State returns just seven starters, by far the fewest in the SEC
- Bulldogs project to finish toward the bottom of the SEC West, which would make it unrealistic for Prescott to win the Heisman Trophy
- May focus more on his downfield throwing at the sacrifice of his running ability, which is good for his NFL draft status, but not as good for his Heisman chances (see: Johnny Manziel 2012 vs. 2013)
Key Games: vs. LSU (Sept. 12), at Auburn (Sept. 26), vs. Ole Miss (Nov. 28)
Will Contend If: Mississippi State goes 6-2 or better in SEC play. Prescott has the ability to become a Heisman Trophy finalist, but didn’t earn that distinction in ’14 despite the Bulldogs’ historic season. If the team drops off on the field even one or two wins, it will spoil Prescott’s chances at the award. Which is difficult considering the wholesale personnel losses elsewhere and the state of the SEC West. If his team shocks us again, though, Prescott could take down the award.
Bovada Odds: 7/1
Realistic Chances: 10 percent
3. RB NICK CHUBB, GEORGIA
Advantages
- National name recognition after last season
- Schedule presents plenty of opportunities for big, visible performances on national TV
- Georgia, the SEC East favorite, could be a national contender
- Never has rushed for fewer than 100 yards as a starter
- Could threaten 2,000 yards and 15+ touchdowns, numbers that immediately elevate a running back
- Tremendous run-blocking offensive line and conservative new offensive coordinator
- Should be the sexiest name on a very good team, so he’ll get plenty of credit
- Many of the nation’s best big-name backs entered the ’15 NFL draft
Disadvantages
- Not a QB
- Underclassman (sophomore)
- Must share carries with the likes of Sony Michel, Keith Marshall, A.J. Turman
- Faces tough competition for the SEC rushing title
- May get docked by voters for playing in a system that’s consistently producing huge rushing numbers
Key Games: vs. Alabama (Oct. 3), at Tennessee (Oct. 10), at Auburn (Nov. 14)
Will Contend If: Barring Melvin Gordon-like numbers, Georgia probably needs to win an SEC championship for Chubb to claim a Heisman Trophy. As far as his rushing numbers, we’ve seen that Chubb is a capable workhorse. But he needs UGA to ride him at the expense of the other talented players in the backfield. Or he needs some extraneous circumstances (like 2014) that allow him to inherit a higher percentage of the carries.
Bovada Odds: 8/1
Realistic Chances: 7.5 percent
4. RB DERRICK HENRY, ALABAMA
Advantages
- Upperclassman (junior)
- Schedule presents plenty of opportunities for big, visible performances on national TV
- With luck, may threaten 2,000 yards and 15+ touchdowns, numbers that immediately elevate a running back
- Alabama hasn’t named a starting quarterback, must replace Amari Cooper at receiver and the backfield is thinner than usual
- The Crimson Tide are talented enough to contend for another SEC championship
- Henry plays for a traditional college football powerhouse and will get a ton of media coverage if Alabama wins big games
- Many of the nation’s best big-name backs entered the ’15 NFL draft
Disadvantages
- Not a QB
- Trent Richardson (2011) is the only Alabama running back to lead the conference in rushing during the Nick Saban era
- Faces tough competition for the SEC rushing title
- May have to overcome media burnout with the Crimson Tide program if he’s a strong contender
- Offensive line may or may not be Heisman-esque
Key Games: vs. Wisconsin (Sept. 5), at Georgia (Oct. 3), at Auburn (Nov. 28)
Will Contend If: Alabama wins another SEC championship and he runs for more than 1,600 yards with a lot of touchdowns. He also needs the perception that he’s a driving force within the team’s success, if Alabama is good — if the defense or Lane Kiffin get too much credit, it may hurt his chances. (For reference, Mark Ingram won the Heisman on a 13-0 Bama team in a down quarterback year with 1,658 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns.)
Bovada Odds: 14/1
Realistic Chances: 5 percent
5. RB LEONARD FOURNETTE, LSU
Advantages
- National name recognition came with status as No. 1 recruit
- Schedule presents plenty of opportunities for big, visible performances on national TV
- Could threaten 2,000 yards and 15+ touchdowns, numbers that immediately elevate a running back
- No longer will share carries with Kenny Hilliard and Terrence Magee
- Very good run-blocking offensive line
- Best natural/raw talent of any SEC running back
- Many of the nation’s best big-name backs entered the ’15 NFL draft
Disadvantages
- Not a QB
- Underclassman (sophomore)
- Faces tough competition for the SEC rushing title
- LSU’s odds of winning the SEC West are not as strong as Alabama, Auburn or even Ole Miss
- Fournette likely will be the focal point for defenses until LSU’s quarterbacks prove they can beat teams downfield
Key Games: vs. Auburn (Sept. 19), at Alabama (No. 7), at Ole Miss (Nov. 21)
Will Contend If: He grows into the LeBron James-level hype. Fournette holds a slight edge over Chubb in physical ability, but did not access as much of it on the field as a true freshman. That could be an advantage, as Fournette has more room for growth, or a disadvantage if it takes another year for him to fully develop at the college level. He’s a buzzy player. But to win a Heisman, Fournette may need to lead the SEC in rushing and have LSU finish first or second in the SEC West as a College Football Playoff contender.
Bovada Odds: 8/1
Realistic Chances: 2.5 percent
NON-SEC PLAYERS TO WATCH
- TCU QB Trevone Boykin (15/2)
- Ohio State QB Cardale Jones (9/1)
- USC QB Cody Kessler (12/1)
- Michigan State QB Connor Cook (20/1)
- Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott (6/1)
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.