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Editor’s Note: We will track various gambling statistics related to SEC teams throughout the season and update them every week.
The SEC saw a major move to the middle this weekend from a gambling perspective.
Ole Miss, previously unbeaten against the spread, failed to cover as a five-point road favorite against LSU, losing outright by a field goal.
Meanwhile, South Carolina and Vanderbilt each beat the spread by double digits. The Rebels (+83) still lead in ATS +/-, but the Gamecocks (-51) and Commodores (-56) made up big ground as all three teams moved back toward zero.
Kentucky snuck out a 1.5-point win ATS against Mississippi State on Saturday. The Arkansas Razorbacks (+74.5) and Wildcats (+31.5) each are 6-2 ATS, though there’s a big difference in their overall +/-. Alabama has beaten the spread just twice in seven games, but still holds a positive +/- thanks to the 59-0 romp against Texas A&M two weeks ago.
The first chart below is a running tally of how each SEC team has performed against the spread this season. In other words, if Georgia is favored by 10 points, but wins by 20, the Bulldogs are +10 for that week. It gives us an idea of how teams are performing relative to expectations.
| Team | ATS Combined +/- | ATS Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Ole Miss | +83 | 6-1-1 |
| 2. Arkansas | +74.5 | 6-2 |
| 3. Georgia | +47.5 | 4-3 |
| 4. Mississippi State | +43.5 | 5-2 |
| 5. Tennessee | +37.5 | 4-4 |
| 6. LSU | +32 | 5-3-1 |
| 7. Kentucky | +31.5 | 6-2 |
| 8. Missouri | +15.5 | 4-4 |
| 9. Auburn | +10.5 | 3-4 |
| 10. Alabama | +9.5* | 2-5* |
| 11. Texas A&M | -8.5 | 3-5 |
| 12. Florida | -31.5 | 2-4 |
| 13. South Carolina | -51 | 2-6 |
| 14. Vanderbilt | -56 | 4-4 |
*The game against Florida Atlantic ended as a no contest because it was suspended and finalized before 55 minutes had been played. Alabama was leading 41-0 at the time. The Las Vegas Hilton line for the game closed at Bama -41.5.
The chart below tracks the average line for each SEC team throughout the season as an indicator of perceived strength. Alabama’s average Vegas line is minus-21.4, highest in the conference.
South Carolina sunk down the list this week as an 18.5-point underdog at Jordan-Hare Stadium.
Florida ranks fifth in the SEC in average line (-12.5), ahead of Mississippi State (-11.9).
| Team | Average Line | Biggest Line |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Alabama | -21.4 | -46.5 vs. Southern Miss |
| 2. Auburn | -17.1 | -34 vs. San Jose State |
| 3. Georgia | -16.6 | -42 vs. Troy |
| 4. LSU | -13.2 | -43 vs. New Mexico State |
| 5. Florida | -12.5# | -41.5 vs. Eastern Michigan |
| 6. Texas A&M | -12.3 | -47 vs. Lamar |
| 7. Mississippi State | -11.9 | -30.5 vs. Southern Miss |
| 8. Ole Miss | -11 | -26 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette |
| 9. South Carolina | -8.8 | -37.5 vs. Furman |
| 10. Missouri | -7.4 | -26 vs. South Dakota State |
| 11. Arkansas | -5.1 | -40.5 vs. Nicholls State |
| 12. Kentucky | -2.9 | -23.5 vs. Tennessee-Martin |
| 13. Tennessee | +3.7 | -26.5 vs. Chattanooga |
| 14. Vanderbilt | +8.6 | -20 vs. Charleston Southern |
#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
The following chart tracks the average over/under for every SEC team as well as whether each team’s games go over or under the posted Vegas total.
Vanderbilt’s average over/under continues to slide as the Commodores and Missouri Tigers faced a total of 42 points Saturday, the lowest over/under involving an SEC team all year. Missouri won, 24-14, as the two teams combined for 38 points to go under the total.
Ole Miss lost, 10-7, at LSU, going under a low total of 45 points Saturday as well, but Alabama-Tennessee mercifully went over the posted total of 46.
Georgia’s games have gone over the posted total six of seven times. Florida’s games have gone over five of six times. That speaks well for touchdown lovers heading into the World’s Largest Cocktail Party on Saturday.
| Team | Average Over/Under | Biggest Over/Under | Over/Under (Results) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Texas A&M | 67.8 | 76.5 vs. Lamar | 3/5 |
| 2. Arkansas | 62.1 | 73.5 vs. Texas A&M | 5/2 |
| 3. Auburn | 61.4 | 67.0 vs. San Jose State | 4/3 |
| 4. South Carolina | 59.9 | 65.0 vs. East Carolina | 5/2 |
| 5. Mississippi State | 58.6 | 73.5 vs. Texas A&M | 4/3 |
| 6. Georgia | 57.4 | 64.0 vs. Troy | 6/1 |
| 7. Missouri | 56.2 | 71.5 vs. Indiana | 3/5 |
| 8. Alabama | 53.8 | 63.0 vs. Texas A&M | 4/3 |
| 9. Ole Miss | 53.5 | 64.0 vs. Texas A&M | 2/6 |
| 10. Tennessee | 53.0 | 59.5 vs. Arkansas State | 2/5 |
| 11. Kentucky | 52.6 | 59.5 vs. Mississippi State | 5/3 |
| 12. LSU | 51.7 | 66.0 vs. Sam Houston State | 4/5 |
| 13. Florida | 50.6# | 56.5 vs. Eastern Michigan | 5/1 |
| 14. Vanderbilt | 48.7 | 53.0 vs. Georgia | 3/5 |
#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
