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Revisiting the way-too-early mock drafts from a year ago: Which SEC players were the biggest whiffs?
I wouldn’t want to do it.
The idea of doing way-too-early mock drafts is something that I’d try to get out of if I were someone like Todd McShay. It’s his least favorite thing to do because he spent the past 8-9 months breaking down the current NFL Draft class, not the next one. He, and others who have to do this, admit that it’s called “way too early” for a reason. The breakdowns are limited, and understandably so.
But it’s also understandable why people like me enjoy dissecting the way-too-early mock drafts. With the 2023 NFL Draft in the books, we’ll look back on the way-too-early projections for SEC players from a year ago and break down some big misses.
Who were the mock draft folks too high on? Who were they too low on?
I looked at 5 different publications that put out way-too-early mock drafts (PFF, Sports Illustrated, CBS Sports, Sporting News and ESPN). In order to qualify for this list, the consensus (at least 3 of 5) from the way-too-early mocks needs to have been wrong.
Also, if a guy is projected as a late first-rounder and he comes off the board in Round 2 or 3, to me, that’s not really a big whiff.
Let’s dig into those misses:
Kayshon Boutte, LSU WR
Where he was mocked — No. 9 overall (PFF), No. 12 (Sports Illustrated), No. 15 (CBS Sports), No. 19 (Sporting News), No. 21 (ESPN)
Where he ended up — No. 187 overall, New England Patriots
Why it missed — I felt like last season I kept shouting from the mountain tops that there were legitimate landmines galore for Boutte’s pre-draft season. Transitioning away from Max Johnson, who force-fed him targets, wasn’t going to be easy. Neither was the fact that Boutte came off not 1, but 2 ankle surgeries since his 2021 season was cut short. On top of that, a new coaching staff publicly said it was having issues getting Boutte engaged with team activities. All of that set the foundation for a year that didn’t come anywhere close to that way-too-early mock draft love.
It would’ve been fun to have seen the best version of Boutte. Maybe Bill Belichick will do that.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama RB
Where he was mocked — No. 27 (ESPN)
Where he ended up — No. 12 overall, Detroit Lions
Why it missed — I included Gibbs here because McShay was the lone person who had the Georgia Tech transfer pegged as a Round 1 guy in those initial mocks. The mock draft community missed on Gibbs altogether because even heading into Thursday, nobody in their right mind had him coming off the board in the top 15. But as McShay referenced, Gibbs has immense potential as a pass-catcher to be worth a Round 1 pick as a modern back. It would’ve been interesting to see if he would’ve been a Round 1 guy if the Lions didn’t take him. Instead, he’ll go to a place in need of pass-catching help with the Jameson Williams suspension and perhaps in need of backfield help if D’Andre Swift is dealt, which is reportedly on the table.
Darnell Wright, Tennessee OL
Where he was mocked — Nowhere
Where he ended up — No. 10 overall, Chicago Bears
Why it missed — It’s pretty rare for a multi-year starter in the SEC to go from not showing up in any way-too-early mock drafts and to a top-10 pick (I should note that CBS Sports’ second way-too-early mock draft had Wright at No. 20 overall). But when you handle Will Anderson like Wright did, well, that comes with the territory. It also helped Wright that in his pre-draft season protecting All-SEC quarterback Hendon Hooker, he didn’t allow a single sack all year en route to first-team All-SEC honors. Sure, he’s not a left tackle and his future is on the right side. With mobile quarterbacks, though, that’s a bit overblown. Fitting it is that Wright will get to now block for arguably the NFL’s most mobile quarterback in Justin Fields.
Eli Ricks, Alabama CB
Where he was mocked — No. 9 (Sporting News), No. 10 (ESPN), No. 23 (CBS Sports), No. 24 (PFF), No. 32 (Sports Illustrated)
Where he ended up — Undrafted
Why it missed — What was strange about Ricks’ pre-2022 discussion was Nick Saban was pretty adamant that the former true freshman star at LSU still had a ways to go in order to adapt to “the Alabama way of doing things.” So while he was showing up in all of these way-too-early mocks and preseason All-American teams, there was some internal doubt about if he’d be an every-down guy. Ricks dealt with a lack of early playing time, as well as injuries. His first game with 40 snaps came in Week 8, and he only started 5 of 9 games he played in. Still, when he was available, he showed excellent cover skills on the outside that reminded you why he was one of the best corners in America in 2020.
But Ricks instead ended up looking like someone who would’ve benefited from another year in school instead of declaring with 2 years of eligibility left and going undrafted.
Henry To’o To’o, Alabama LB
Where he was mocked — No. 18 (Sports Illustrated), No. 24 (ESPN), No. 25 (Sporting News)
Where he ended up — No. 167 overall, Houston Texans
Why it missed — With all due respect to To’o To’o, who was a tremendous leader at Tennessee and Alabama, I thought he was the most overrated SEC defensive player over the past 3 years. It seemed like many defaulted to his high tackle totals too much, and the people who continued to give him preseason All-SEC love didn’t actually see some of the issues he had defending the run, which is supposed to be his strength. You can’t stick him in coverage without him being a liability and he’s never been a pass-rusher, though that’s not really been asked of him very much.
That’s not to say To’o To’o can’t have an NFL career. I just view him as more of a depth guy and never really bought into the belief that someone was going to want to make him one of the first defensive players off the board. You don’t need to pay a premium to add someone with To’o To’o’s skill set. Hence, why he was never considered a legitimate first-round guy once the real pre-Draft process began.
Kelee Ringo, Georgia CB
Where he was mocked — No. 4 (CBS Sports), No. 10 (Sporting News), No. 11 (Sports Illustrated), No. 12 (ESPN), No. 17 (PFF)
Where he ended up — No. 105 overall, Philadelphia Eagles (duh)
Why it missed — This might seem harsh to include Ringo here, but I did because coming off his iconic pick-6 to close the book on Georgia’s national championship season, he was expected to be 1 of the first 2 corners off the board in 2023. His 6-2 frame and ball-hawking skills were understandably praised in the way-too-early mocks. What was lost in the shuffle of Ringo’s breakout Year 2 in Athens was that he was still more of a work in progress with his technique after he was hurt all of his first season. He was called for 9 defensive pass interference penalties in 2022, and he was the 6th-most targeted defender in FBS. Even Georgia Tech seemed content targeting Ringo all day. He’ll still have a chance to establish himself as a starting outside corner in the NFL, but I think there was enough film that showed front offices that Ringo was more of a project than what his household name status would suggest.
So naturally, Ringo was scooped up in Round 4 by the Philadelphia Bulldogs.
In case you were wondering about Will Levis …
Where he was mocked — No. 5 (CBS Sports), No. 8 (PFF), No. 8 (ESPN), No. 14 (Sports Illustrated)
Where he ended up — No. 33 overall, Tennessee Titans
Why it missed — CBS actually had Levis at No. 1 in its second way-too-early mock Draft. It appeared to be a foregone conclusion that he’d come off the board in Round 1 and even in the first half of the first round, which was where 4 of those 5 publications had him tabbed in their first way-too-early mocks. But those projections missed because there was clearly a divide between the mock draft world, which was in love with Levis’ traits, and NFL front offices.
Multiple reports indicated there were issues with Levis’ turf toe that he played through the 2022 season with, as well as the rumblings that he came off overconfident in pre-Draft interviews coming off a lackluster campaign. In hindsight, Levis’ shortcomings should’ve at least made for more of a split opinion heading into Thursday. It wasn’t that big of a way-too-early miss, though. It was more of a “final mock” miss.
What about Anthony Richardson, you ask?
Where he was mocked — No. 6 (ESPN), No. 9 (Sports Illustrated)
Where he ended up — No. 4, Indianapolis Colts
Why it missed — I mean, I don’t know that we’d call this a true miss because it didn’t meet my consensus rule, but I thought it was interesting that Richardson got top-10 love from 2 publications while 3 publications left him out altogether. It felt like there was early love for Richardson because of the Utah game, wherein he went viral 3 different times in Florida’s upset of the eventual-Pac-12 champs. It felt like Richardson was a staple in mocks after that day, but credit McShay and SI for at least having the foresight to put the Florida quarterback as a top-10 pick before bis tools were on display.
And this won’t count, but I had to include it here … PFF had Arik Gilbert going No. 5 overall
Look. I get it. I wanted Gilbert to live up to that all-world potential that we saw in flashes during his true freshman season at LSU. But when a guy misses an entire sophomore season for off-field issues, mocking him as a top-5 pick seems just a touch ambitious. Gilbert was just trying to become a top-2 tight end on his own team. Unfortunately, that never happened and his only catches of the year came against Vandy before his odd Georgia tenure ended with him hitting the portal yet again. PFF was the only one of the 5 aforementioned publications to put Gilbert anywhere in its first mock Draft, but that wins the award for “most head-scratching way-too-early top-5 pick.”
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.