Supremacy Chatter: Why the SEC's 2-team Playoff bid is on life support
I came into Saturday optimistic.
The odds that the SEC could earn two spots in the College Football Playoff seemed favorable heading into the weekend. Those chances might’ve even improved (slightly) when Washington fell to Stanford, which essentially eliminated the Pac-12 from the Playoff hunt. With three matchups of top-10 teams, the stage was set for the SEC to make a big-time leap to its 2-team fate.
After weeks of doubting the possibility, I was beginning to turn the corner on the likelihood of Alabama and Georgia making the Playoff field, and making a little history in the process.
Instead, I came out of the weekend thinking that there were very few scenarios in which I could see it happening. Much of that was the result of Georgia’s blowout loss at Auburn on Saturday. It was a telling performance. We were told that the Dawgs were a lot further from perfection than maybe we realized.
We were also told that in order for the SEC to become the first conference to get multiple teams into the field, it was going to need a few to bounce its way. Georgia getting blown out at Auburn wasn’t one of them.
Let’s start with that reason as to why the SEC’s 2-team bid lost a lot of life Saturday.
Georgia only has one path now
Duh. Obviously it’s pretty simple for the Dawgs. Win out and they’re in. If they beat Auburn or Alabama in the SEC Championship, they’ll have no worries making the field.
What that also meant was that Georgia can no longer lose the SEC Championship — or any game, really — and make it into the field. Two losses, especially in the final month, is too much for any team to overcome.

Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
For Georgia, this isn’t about style points or quality wins anymore. This is simply about winning every game left on the schedule and knowing that’ll be enough. The odd predicament would be if Georgia lost to Georgia Tech and then beat Auburn in the SEC Championship. Alabama would actually get in with that scenario, and Georgia wouldn’t.
I’m already sick of the debates that would create. But it shouldn’t, because conference titles are not as important as having 2 losses. Sooner or later, the college football world will grasp that concept.
The SEC has one 2-team path, and it’s murky
Let’s say Georgia and Alabama run the table in the regular season. Georgia wins a close SEC championship.
That’s it. That’s the only 2-team path for the SEC.
Why?
Before thinking about every other Playoff contender, think only about what would happen if Georgia blew out Alabama. You would have Georgia, Alabama and Auburn all with one win apiece against each other.
If we’re deciding between Alabama and Georgia — Auburn would have suffered 3 losses in that scenario — the tie goes to the team with the head-to-head advantage (Georgia), the conference champ (Georgia) and the team with the quality non-conference win (Georgia). It’s not crazy to think Alabama gets left out in that scenario.
There’s still a decent field of contenders
So let’s go off that crazy scenario. You know, the one in which Alabama’s first loss comes at the hands of a blowout against Georgia in the SEC Championship.
Miami is still undefeated, and it boasts better wins than Alabama. If Mark Richt’s squad runs the table, it will undoubtedly make the field ahead of the Tide. Don’t forget about 1-loss Clemson, which also has plenty of top-25 victories (that Auburn win looks huge) and would have a victory against the possibly unbeaten Canes in the ACC Championship. That group isn’t getting bumped in favor of Alabama, either.
The same goes for a 1-loss Oklahoma team. The Sooners would have more top-25 victories than Alabama, they would have a big non-conference true road win (Alabama doesn’t) and they would have a conference title.
I’ll continue.

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Wisconsin, despite what you think about its strength of schedule, is still unbeaten. The Badgers aren’t getting left out of the field if they run the table. Period. Three wins against potential top-25 teams (if Michigan is in the top-25 on Tuesday) in the final month would lock that up.
In my opinion, there are still five non-Alabama teams (including Georgia) who control their fate. How could five teams control their own destiny for 4 spots? Clemson and Miami will compete for one spot in the ACC Championship. But there’s even a scenario in which Miami losing its first game to Clemson — a close game — could have a better Playoff argument than one-loss Alabama that gets trucked by Georgia.
After Miami trucked Notre Dame, does the ACC have a clearer 2-team path than the SEC? We’ll save that debate for a couple weeks from now.
OK, I’ll stop forecasting scenarios that include Alabama blowouts
Let’s get back to the main issue here. After all, we’re not assuming that Alabama is getting blown out any time soon. But that shows you that there’s still an extremely open field with three weeks of season left.
The belief that a 1-loss, non-SEC champ is undoubtedly in is hard to believe at this point. There are probably some who are pointing to 2-loss Auburn winning out, which would force the committee to include the Tigers and 1-loss Alabama. I’m still not convinced that Auburn makes the field in that scenario (see 2016 Penn State).
That’s not brand bias. I promise.
That’s following what the Playoff has valued throughout this whole process, not what a random analyst said about who they believe is the best team in America. We have 14 weeks of data to show that.
At this point, the SEC hasn’t played its way out of a 2-team bid. It’s not as if it’s Alabama, Georgia, Auburn and a bunch of 6-win teams. Teams like LSU, Mississippi State and even South Carolina all helped prevent that.
But I believed that the SEC’s most obvious 2-team path included unbeaten Alabama and unbeaten Georgia playing for an SEC Championship. On Saturday, that path was closed. We can sit here and forecast chaos until we’re blue in the face. At this point, anything can happen.
Well, maybe not anything.
First of all, Congratulations to Auburn for the victory. What that being said here’s two things. 1, I really think Auburn will upset Alabama in 2 weeks and win the SEC West because of this reason: the last two times Auburn beat Georgia, they defeated Alabama in the same season (2010 and 2013), now keep in mind both times they played for a national title, which leads me to my next point. 2, Let’s say Auburn defeats Alabama, wins the division, and win the SEC Championship, could the same thing that happened to Penn State and Ohio State happen to Auburn and Alabama. What costed Penn State the chance to play in the CFP was their 2 loses, and their brand name. Auburn has already lost 2 games, and just like Penn State, they’ve won just two national titles. Their loses and their brand name will play a big role should Auburn win the SEC.
Or let’s say auburn beats Bama in a close game and Georgia revenges there loss in the sec championship. There’s a way the sec still gets two teams in Alabama with one loss and Georgia with one loss but a loss they revenged?
I don’t think Auburn over Alabama will be an upset. Whatever the early line is for that game, it will shift in Auburn’s favor. But my guess is even the early line will favor Auburn.
Or maybe UGA wasn’t as good as everyone thought?
I agree. But the betting public won’t see it that way. They will see Bama’s close win over State, combine that with Auburn’s perceived strength and the game being played at Auburn, and I think Auburn will be favored.
I think the line will be 2 to 3 points in favor of bama
You could be right. It is hard to bet against Bama, normally. I don’t think this is a normal situation. NFL departures, plus recent injuries, have weakened Bama to some extent, and it shows. It remains to be seen, but it’s possible that the first solid team Bama plays will knock them off. That could be Auburn. Personally, I think it could happen, and if I had to bet on the game, I’d bet on Auburn. Bama just doesn’t look all that strong this year.
Maybe but at the same time Auburn did lose to LSU and has struggled themselves along the way this year. Don’t get me wrong, Auburn is a good team but I like Bama’s chances. Making a knee jerk reaction over 1 game is what we do as fans.
This is not a knee jerk reaction. LSU is not a solid team, but LSU outgained Bama and had more first downs. I know, stats lie. But Bama is weaker than they have been in recent years. The State game confirmed that. That’s two games, not one. It looks like a trend. Bama has not played a solid team all year. Auburn looks like a team with a solid defense, solid running game, and a QB capable of being a weapon. I have some doubt about the QB, but he looks better than Etling, at least. Should be an interesting game. Really, what puts me on Auburn’s side is that they are at home.
I mean that’s fine and I am not trying to change your opinion. While you say LSU is not a solid team and talk about them out gaining Bama you failed to mention Bama did win that game by two touchdowns and took a knee instead of scoring again…. Also that not solid team beat Auburn yet you criticize Bama for the way they won…. Maybe you end up being right but I wouldn’t get on it.
I think Bama is definitely the more complete team than auburn, but Alabama is not healthy and it showed last night. Now if Bama gets there linebackers back before this game I think Bama wins by 2 scores, if they don’t then auburn might squeak one out.
Auburn’s situation is nothing like PSU’s. If Auburn wins the SEC, they are no doubt in. Bama would be the team on the bubble.
All these Georgia fans giving up on there team is pathetic! Does no one remember the 2012 season? Or did all these Georgia fans just start watching georgia football this year? We got throttled by a South Carolina team at there house. We turned it around and was one play or a few more seconds from playing for a national title. So either don’t give up on this team or start pulling for Bama.
Like I said… There has been alot of new UGA fans show up this season. It’s time for them to vanish.
I still think that SECCG was the best I’ve ever watched. It made me happy to win as a Bama fan, but I felt for Georgia because of how close it was.
Hopefully we get a rematch this year!
I hope so as well. By no means am I saying this Georgia team is as good as the 2012 one but there is still a lot of football to be played. One blow out loss to a hot auburn team is not going to derail the season! There is still everything to play for.
I don’t think any conference should get 2 teams in the final 4. Imagine if Georgia wins the SEC, but Bama beats them in a rematch for the national championship. So, Bama is the national champ, yet didn’t even win their own conference?? It just makes a mockery of the whole system. Senseless.
I don’t think any conference should get two teams in either but I don’t see the mockery you’re talking about. Other playoffs have wild card team’s and team’s that didn’t win a conference or d ivison competing for a championship… The amount of team’s in CFB is what makes it so hard to get right
If there was an 8 team playoff, or a wildcard round, I think it makes more sense. But with only 4, it has to go to the most deserving teams.
Makes sense but looking at how many teams there is currently in CFB and how few games they play against each other there is no perfect answer