SEC betting preview for Day 4 at the NCAA Tournament

The SEC struggled through the opening round of the NCAA Tournament. But Sunday provides two teams — Alabama and Texas A&M — the opportunity to join Tennessee in the Sweet 16.

Here’s a look at the SEC’s slate for Day 4:

(All times Eastern; spread and totals via FanDuel)

4 Alabama vs. 12 Grand Canyon | 7:10 p.m. | TBS | Spokane, Washington

Welcome to the Mark Sears Show, Lopes. Have fun, and try not to get buried.

The senior guard from Muscle Shoals, Alabama, has scored at least 22 points in 6 straight games for the Crimson Tide. Remarkably, he has at least 20 points in 18 of his last 20 games. For a college guard playing in a conference as tough as the SEC was this season, that’s a truly outstanding run of consistency.

Sears is the highest-usage player on Alabama, but he’s not even top-10 in the SEC in usage rate. He’s incredibly effective with his touches, ranking second in the SEC with a 60% effective field goal percentage. He can punish teams from behind the 3-point line (43% on 5.5 attempts a game) but doesn’t rely on perimeter shooting to get himself going. This season, he’s averaging a career-best 6.6 free throw attempts a game. In Friday’s 109-96 win over 13-seed Charleston, Sears had 30 points and 5 assists. He hurt Charleston getting inside the lane, and if Cougar defenders dropped under the screen he pulled up to knock down triples.

Alabama’s offense ranks third in the country in adjusted efficiency (per KenPom), with a 125.6 offensive rating. They run, run, run, and that commitment to the offensive end of the floor has come at the expense of Alabama’s defense (117th in adjusted defensive efficiency), but Friday first-round win was a complete performance on both ends.

Nate Oats’ group was up by 30 points with 6:17 to play in the game. The final 13-point margin was a product of hot garbage-time shooting from 3 for Charleston. It was a 17-point game at the half and that lead grew to more than 20 within the first 5 minutes of the second half. Charleston was never a threat over the final 20 minutes.

Oats wasn’t happy with the close, but Alabama was never in danger.

Grand Canyon (30-4) is in the second round after upsetting 5-seed Saint Mary’s on Friday, 75-66. Tyon Grant-Foster, a 6-foot-7 senior guard, had 22 points, 7 boards, 2 blocks, and 2 steals for Grand Canyon in the win. Ray Harrison added 17 points and 6 assists. Gabe McGlothan had 12 points, 11 boards, 3 steals, and 3 blocks.

That trio has powered the Lopes all season. McGlothan is in his sixth collegiate season, Harrison his fourth. Grant-Foster played a season of JUCO ball in 2019-20, a season of Big 12 ball with Kansas in 2020-21, and then had his basketball career derailed at DePaul in 2021-22.

Grant-Foster collapsed in the locker room at halftime of his Blue Demons’ debut on Nov. 10, 2021, and had to be revived. He spent 10 days in the hospital. Months later, he collapsed again during a pickup game and had to undergo another heart operation, putting his basketball career in jeopardy.

He was finally cleared to return to the floor in March 2023, and found a chance at Grand Canyon.

When he collapsed again several months later during a pickup game and subsequently underwent a second heart operation, it seemed basketball might no longer be an option.

He has averaged 19.8 points a game this season, with 16 20-point games and a 30-point explosion on Nov. 6, 2023.

Grand Canyon has plus length throughout its starting five, and that has helped create one of the nation’s best shot efficiency defenses. Opponents have posted a 45.8% effective field goal percentage against the Lopes, the ninth-lowest in the country. They’re excellent defending the 2 and block nearly 14% of opponents’ shots.

They also get to the free throw line at the fifth-highest rate in college basketball. Grant-Foster averages 8.1 foul shots a game. Harrison and McGlothan average a combined 8.7.

Alabama is 17-15-1 against the spread this year. Grand Canyon is 19-13-1. The Lopes have won 6 straight games entering the Round of 32.

Spread: Alabama -6.5

Total: 169.5

1 Houston vs. 9 Texas A&M | 8:40 p.m. | TNT | Memphis, Tennessee

During the 2020-21 season, Houston won the American conference tourney title and advanced to the program’s first Final Four in nearly 40 years. They lost by 19 to the eventual national champion, and they’ve been trying to get back ever since.

The following season, the Cougars won 32 games, swept the American regular-season and conference tournament titles, and played their way to an Elite Eight appearance. They won another 33 games in 2022-23, but fell to Miami in the Sweet 16.

Houston (31-4) won 28 games during the regular season, winning the Big 12’s regular-season crown in its first year in the league. The Cougars reached the Big 12 Tournament title game but were blown off the floor by Iowa State.

Any concern about that loss lingering in the Cougars’ minds was quickly put to rest in the first round. The top seed in the South Region eviscerated 16-seed Longwood 86-46. Four players scored in double-digits as the Cougars knocked down 11 triples and shot 58% from the field.

It was 43-16 at halftime.

Jamal Shead (13 points, 6.3 assists per game) was on the Houston team that lost in the Final Four. So was J’Wan Roberts (9.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.2 steals). LJ Cryer (15.4 points) was on the Baylor team that beat Houston in the Final Four.

Houston has spent the entire season building to this moment. It won’t be enough just to win another conference title and earn another No. 1 seed; this Cougars’ team is playing for a national title.

It’ll take another outstanding shooting display from Texas A&M to derail that quest.

The Aggies (21-14) were lights out in their 98-83 win over 8-seed Nebraska in the opening round. Wade Taylor IV scored 25 points on 8-of-14 shooting and 7-of-10 from 3. Manny Obaseki had 22 points on 8-of-17 shooting. Tyrece Radford had 20 points, 10 boards, and 5 assists on 8-of-17 shooting.

An Aggie squad that entered the NCAA Tournament shooting 40% from the field and 28% from 3 went into the halftime break with 58 points on the board thanks to 54% shooting and 9 makes from 3 on 15 attempts. Taylor came out of the gates with his hair on fire.

Houston, by contrast, has the nation’s No. 1 defense. They rank first in adjusted efficiency with a defensive rating of 87.2, per KenPom. They have the best steal percentage in basketball, the second-best block percentage, and the 10th-best 3-point defense. Nothing comes easy against the Cougars.

Houston is 17-16-2 against the spread this season. A&M is 17-18 ATS.

Spread: Houston -9.5

Total: 134.5

2 picks

Alabama G Mark Sears over 25.5 points + assists (-118 via FanDuel)

Sears has scored at least 20 points in 18 of his last 20 games. This particular prop would have cashed in each of his last 6 games. Because of Alabama’s defensive deficiencies this season, Sears is going to have to continue playing out of his mind for this team to continue advancing in the tournament. No reason to jump off this bandwagon right now, and several online sportsbook apps have a good price for this prop.

Texas A&M G Wade Taylor IV over 3.5 turnovers (+135 via DraftKings)

Houston ends 15.6% of opponent possessions with a steal — the highest rate in D1 basketball. Jamal Shead averages 2.2 steals, Emanuel Sharp averages 1.5, and J’Wan Roberts averages 1.2 a game. Taylor is averaging 3 turnovers a game this season and has at least 4 giveaways 11 times. He had 3 when these sides met on Dec. 16, and the pressure should be turned up with a spot in the Sweet 16 on the line.