Week 9 is fine in the SEC, where it’s bold prediction time. Five games are on tap, and nobody is favored by more than 7.5 points. Sounds like exactly the kind of weekend where our predictions are going to look pretty good on Sunday morning. Let’s dive right in.

Florida pulls off the upset

Yes, Georgia has more talent on their roster. But Kirby Smart’s defense is at the bottom of the SEC rankings in sacks and tackles for loss. Florida’s offense isn’t exactly humming, but if you can’t create negative plays, you leave them just enough room to pull off an upset that looked unthinkable a month ago. We’ve got the Gators forcing a couple of pivotal turnovers and Justin Fields seeing meaningful playing time. This is a 19-17 kind of game, and Florida pulls off the upset.

Kyle Shurmur is good for 300

Credit: Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports

Vandy’s Kyle Shurmur passed for comfortably more than 200 yards last week in a windstorm in Lexington. He’ll find life much easier against the Arkansas secondary. The Razorbacks will get some yardage on the ground and likely will hold a slim halftime advantage. But Shurmur’s passing will be the difference in this one. He’ll go for 300 yards, and Vandy wins a 35-24 kind of game.

Keytaon gets the Bulldogs back on track

A&M is a frustratingly uneven team. They’ll struggle to get past South Carolina weeks after fighting Clemson down to the wire. Kellen Mond has been the best thing about their season, but he’s facing a tough State pass defense. Meanwhile, Mississippi State has spent too much time trying to fit a square peg into a round hole at quarterback. Keytaon Thompson looked much better running this offense in his brief appearances than Nick Fitzgerald has. Granted, he’s not playing Stephen F. Austin this week, but Keytaon will bring a passing threat to the table for a State team that can run the ball more or less well enough even without Fitzgerald. Sometimes it hurts for a coach to start to make his stamp on a program, but Joe Moorhead does it here, playing Thompson and winning 28-21.

Kentucky doesn’t make a QB change, finds a way to win

On the other hand, Mark Stoops has talked all week about playing multiple QBs against Missouri. Call us crazy, but this feels more like motivation than strategy. In Week 1, Terry Wilson was awful, and with the fan base expecting a QB change, he played his best game of the season the next week at Florida. Kentucky will mix in some more passes, but Wilson will see most or all of the snaps, and Kentucky’s offense will put together just enough points to claim a 24-22 win despite 300 yards passing from Drew Lock.

Carolina puts a good one together

Tennessee has more or less played over its head in spots, even against Alabama. The loss of offensive lineman Trey Smith is a huge blow, as is the surfacing of significant depth problems on defense. This feels like the game when South Carolina finally puts together a strong effort in all phases and grabs a 41-21 win. Rico Dowdle is due for a big game, and we’ll project the Carolina back for 130 yards rushing and a pair of touchdowns.