Breaking down the SEC Bowl Bubble through 8 weeks: Who gets into the postseason?
It’s beginning to be that time.
You know. The time when you look on your team’s schedule and try to figure out what their bowl chances are.
No, I’m not talking to fans of Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, which are bowl-eligible already. And despite the NCAA bowl ban appeal, I think 5-win Mizzou is exempt from a discussion about getting to 6 wins.
That brings up the rest of the bunch. Eight SEC teams are vying for a spot in the postseason.
Let’s break down their chances:
Arkansas (2-5)
Remaining schedule
- at No. 1 Alabama
- vs. Mississippi State
- vs. Western Kentucky
- at No. 2 LSU
- vs. Mizzou
Bowl or no bowl — No Bowl
Am I banking on Arkansas ending its 15-game SEC losing streak? No. Needless to say, that makes the idea of winning 3 of 4 remaining SEC games — 2 of which are against the No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the country — nearly impossible. Arkansas would have to beat Alabama or LSU on the road to make a postseason. So yes, I’m putting the 6-win probability at a solid 0%.
Kentucky (3-4)
Bowl or no bowl — Bowl
Remaining schedule
- vs. Mizzou
- vs. Tennessee
- at Vandy
- vs. Tennessee-Martin
- vs. Louisville
Going 3-2 with that remaining schedule is certainly manageable, especially considering how awful Mizzou has played on the road this year. Obviously Kentucky would like to have a clearer quarterback picture, but do any of those defenses scare you? They shouldn’t. Four of those 5 games are at home, too. And if there’s an ideal road atmosphere to play in for a Power 5 team, it’s Vandy. Lost in the shuffle of the excitement of the Lynn Bowden experiment is that Kentucky’s defense looked pretty solid the past couple of weeks. A 7-win regular season is still very much on the table.
Mississippi State (3-4)
Bowl or no bowl — No bowl
Remaining schedule
- at Texas A&M
- at Arkansas
- vs. No. 1 Alabama
- vs. Abilene Christian
- vs. Ole Miss
There’s a very realistic scenario in which the postseason chances come down to the Egg Bowl. That would be MSU splitting A&M and Arkansas, and then beating Abilene Christian. With how much the MSU offense is sputtering, I’d take Ole Miss in that matchup. That’s where we’re at with this team, which can’t seem to run the ball like it did in the beginning of the year with Kylin Hill. Joe Moorhead’s offense is going to continue to struggle if it can’t stretch the field, which is bad news against defensive minds like Mike Elko, Nick Saban and Mike MacIntyre. Things would get ugly in a hurry for Moorhead if he can’t reach the postseason in Year 2.
Ole Miss (3-5)
Bowl or no bowl — No bowl
Remaining schedule
- at No. 9 Auburn
- vs. New Mexico State
- vs. No. 2 LSU
- at Mississippi State
The part that stings most about the A&M game is that Ole Miss’ bowl chances took a massive hit. Forget about just winning the Egg Bowl. Ole Miss would have to win either at Jordan-Hare or against the fighting Joe Burrows. I’m not banking on that. It’s too bad because there’s plenty of young potential in this offense. But it could be a postseason-or-bust type year for Matt Luke. As frustrated as Ole Miss fans are with him at times, I still give him credit for hiring Rich Rodriguez and Mike MacIntyre, both of whom I’d argue have done well with what they were given. But big changes could be coming in Oxford if a November to remember doesn’t happen.
South Carolina (3-4)
Bowl or no bowl — Bowl
Remaining schedule
- at Tennessee
- vs. Vandy
- vs. No. 21 Appalachian State
- at Texas A&M
- vs. No. 4 Clemson
I like the fact that there are 4 extremely winnable games left and South Carolina needs 3 of them. What do I like more? South Carolina played like a Top 25 team the past 2 weeks. Really, 3 of the past 4 weeks dating back to the Kentucky blowout. The Appalachian State game will be a tougher test than initially anticipated. Go ask UNC, which beat South Carolina, about how good the Mountaineers are. But I like how Will Muschamp’s defense is playing, and I think it’ll have a decent chance of locking up bowl eligibility before the trip to College Station.
Tennessee (2-5)
Bowl or no bowl — No bowl
Remaining schedule
- vs. South Carolina
- vs. UAB
- at Kentucky
- at Mizzou
- vs. Vandy
Here’s the good news — the tough stretch is over. That gauntlet start to SEC play is in the rearview mirror. The bad news? That hole, even with the defensive improvement we’ve seen from Jeremy Pruitt’s squad, is too deep to dig out of. Winning 4 of 5 games seems like a lot given the uncertainty of the Vols’ quarterback situation. There’s not an automatic win in that bunch, either. Don’t sleep on 6-1 UAB, which is plenty capable of shutting down Tennessee’s frustrating offense. Entering 2019, I didn’t think it was possible for Tennessee to come up short of 6 wins, but that’s what happens when you lose at home to Georgia State and BYU.
Texas A&M (4-3)
Bowl or no bowl — Bowl
Remaining schedule
- vs. Mississippi State
- vs. UTSA
- vs. South Carolina
- at No. 10 Georgia
- at No. 2 LSU
Man, that win at Ole Miss was so important for the Aggies avoiding a bowl-less season. Considering how well South Carolina is playing, I wouldn’t want to go into that final 3-game stretch needing a win. Now, though, the Aggies are in good shape to lock up bowl eligibility before that stretch begins. Granted, that’s not the best conversation to have for a team who started in the top 15. A&M, with how 1-dimensional it looks on offense, seems much more like a 6-7 win team than a 9-10 win team that many were hoping for in Year 2 of the Jimbo Fisher era.
Vanderbilt (2-5)
Bowl or no bowl — No bowl
Remaining schedule
- at South Carolina
- at No. 7 Florida
- vs. Kentucky
- vs. ETSU
- at Tennessee
Again, this is what happens when you lose at home to UNLV. You’re in need of winning 5 of your final 6 games to make the postseason. The good news? We saw a different Vandy team against Mizzou. The defense was flying around and Ke’Shawn Vaughn finally got the workload he should have been getting weeks ago. The bad news? The Commodores need to win at South Carolina or Florida to keep bowl hopes alive. In Vandy’s lone road games against Purdue and Ole Miss, they lost by an average of 20 points.
In other words, it’ll take another Music City Miracle to get back to a bowl game.