Final SEC bowl projections after conference championship games
Trying to guess what the College Football Playoff committee will do from week to week has been a fool’s errand.
But we have to try again because the votes have one major decision after this weekend’s conference championship games:
Who’s No. 1?
A couple of weeks ago, Ohio State rose to No. 1 in the CFP rankings, passing LSU.
Clemson — owner of a 28-game winning streak after demolishing Virginia in the ACC title game — has settled in at No. 3. But every analyst on TV seems to be talking about how nobody wants to play Clemson, so being the No. 1 team vs. No. 2 has some meaning.
Our guess?
LSU beat Georgia in Saturday’s SEC Championship Game way more impressively than Ohio State defeated Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game. About that, there is no debate. And because the CFP voters have a history of emphasizing conference title games quite a bit, LSU seems like a logical candidate to jump back to the No. 1 spot and get No. 4 Oklahoma in the CFP semifinals.
That would mean Ohio State and Clemson, 2 unbeaten teams with the 2 longest winning streaks in the country, would square off in the other semifinal.
If that happens, LSU gets to influence its semifinal destination and it seems obvious that the Peach Bowl in Atlanta would be the preferred destination for the Tigers over the Fiesta Bowl in Arizona.
What else shook out after the conference championship games?
Well, Oregon took out No. 5 Utah in Friday’s Pac-12 title game, which greatly simplified the CFP committee’s choice. The 4 playoff teams are completely obvious. But how far will the Utes fall? Last week we speculated that a close loss would keep Utah in the top 10 and thus ahead of Auburn and Alabama.
Nope. A close loss was not what Utah experienced. The Ducks beat the Utes soundly, 37-15. So now we are projecting that Utah will fall behind No. 11 Auburn (and No. 12 Alabama), so the Tigers will take their Iron Bowl victory with them into a New Year’s 6 bowl. We say it’s the Cotton vs. American Athletic Conference champion and Group of 5 representative Memphis.
As for Georgia? The Dawgs might only fall 1 spot after losing to undefeated LSU, with the committee reasoning that UGA should not be punished too harshly even for a 27-point loss. On the other hand, the voters could decide that the way Florida closed the season was impressive enough to vault the Gators past the Dawgs and into the Sugar Bowl despite Georgia’s head-to-head win. We say that will not happen and that Georgia will go to the Sugar Bowl while the Gators stay in the Sunshine State and get rewarded with a trip to the Orange Bowl.
With that, here are our final SEC bowl projections after the weekend’s conference championship games:
You say Gators to Orange bowl but chart says Cotton? Which is it?
Get your eyes examined.
Probably edited it. Happens all the time.
No the pic just shows up weird at least on my phone it looks like it’s saying UF to the cotton bowl
Same here. Shows Fl. to Cotton bowl. And some bowls show the matchup on the right of the chart, some show the matchup on the left. Must be how it displays on different phones.
Auburn to the Cotton is a big question. They are just as likely to get one of the two Florida bowls with Bama. I don’t see the A&M Michigan matchup as a good one for the SEC.
Would prefer that we stay in Florida for the sake of recruiting S. FL talent.
Here we come Orange.
I agree. If I was a Gator fan I would want the Orange Bowl. Close to home, good for recruiting, and Virginia should be fun to beat to the curb.
Side note. I think UGA starts their season off with Virginia so I doubt they want to match them up together for a bo game
LSU should be No.1, should’ve been for some time now.
That would put what I feel is an overrated Ohio St against Clemson. Don’t get me wrong, OS is top 4, but I think 3 to 4 is the more accurate number. I won’t be surprised if Clemson beats them by 17 plus.
Clemson may be better than OSU but they can’t be rewarded for that weak schedule. I thought 3 was a fair spot. I could go either way with LSU/OSU. Had no problem with OSU before because of their defense… but LSU might have tipped the scale in their direction the last 2 weekends.
Ohio St is better, and has looked better than OU all year so I don’t see any reason or justification for OSU being #4. Ranked #2 or #3 doesn’t matter because they play Clemson regardless. I think LSU should be #1, but there’s a better argument to keep OSU #1 than there is to rank them #4, imo.
Agree with this
Chart is off if viewed on iPhone. Shows Florida in Cotton, and no one in Sugar.
Revisionist Apple. LOL
Turn your phone sideways
I wish they could do something about the playing surface at Mercedes-Benz. I think I would rather see LSU go out to Phoenix and play on grass.
Wisconsin is playing in the Rose Bowl.
Citrus would pick Michigan over Minnesota
Rose may choose PSU since they will probably be ranked higher than Wisky
I agree. I think it’s more likely Wisky goes Rose and Mich/Auburn in the Citrus with Minnesota/Bama in Outback.
Wrong, penn st will go to the Rose.
Kentucky probably goes to the Music City Bowl . Can’t argue with that after a down year due to injuries . I do believe next year will be similar to last year’s 10 win season . As for Florida , very impressive after Trask took over at QB . The kid can play . Hoping LSU wins it all !
This Selection will lose all credibility if thy chose anyone other than LSU. They are trying to give credit to OSU for scheduling a Non-Power 5 Cincinnati at home, over a Power-5 Blueblood Texas team (at Home) that was ranked #9 and healthy!?! Not to mention, ranked Wisconsin (who lost to unranked Illinois) over FL, which only lost to Top-5 ranked LSU & GA? A Committee who left Penn St. in the Top 10 and Cincinnati in the Top 20? – Preposterous!
The Committee has never strayed so far from the AP & Coaches Poll, which has LSU, clearly, where they should be ranked!
I don’t know about lose all credibility, but they’ve done some bonehead stuff no doubt. Keeping Wisconsin ranked in the top 10 with a loss to Illinois was nothing more than giving OSU a bone to have another chance to beat a “Top 10” team. It also set Wisconsin up (and kept the B1G) in the conversation had they beat OSU to leapfrog a few teams. Clearly Wisconsin hasn’t been a top 10 team so ranking them where they did was a little too obvious to possibly keep the B1G Champion in it had OSU lost.
That’s ridiculous.
They were very transparent on why OSU was getting the nod over LSU – their Defense… and I agree with it. Though LSU evened the scales the last 2 weeks. To suggest OSU had an easy schedule is just silly. Their resume is on par with LSU’s. And I had no problem with Whiskey being ranked ahead of UF. They had a worse loss but also had 3 quality wins to Florida’s 1.
I don’t get all the whining and complaining. If everyone would just put their bias aside for a minute, the committee has actually done a pretty good job up to this point.
The old trope about SEC success is Run the Ball and Stop the Run. Given that both teams have a pretty good passing attack, I give a slight nod to OU over LSU. I hope I get to see them play each other as that shapes up to be a great game, although LSU vs. Clemson could be a classic, too. Either way, I’ll be rooting for the Purple and Gold.
I know…LSU vs OU would have to be a final. That would make the game even better, assuming both teams are reasonably healthy.
We’re ranked #6 by AP and #7 by Coaches/CFP, and we get to play Virginia in a New Year’s 6 bowl game in our own backyard? Not bad, not bad at all.
Never mind, I guess CFP doesn’t like the Gators. Oh well, doesn’t change much.