SEC bowl projections after Week 10
What does a pair of upsets mean for the SEC?
How about losing a spot in the New Year’s Six bowls?
That’s what we are projecting today for the first time this season. After upset losses by Texas A&M and Florida, we don’t see either team getting a New Year’s Six bowl berth.
Instead, we like Auburn to move into the Sugar Bowl and both Florida and Texas A&M dropping to lower bowls.
After its upset loss to Mississippi State, we have Texas A&M slotted for the Citrus Bowl while Florida, which does still have the inside track to the SEC East title after losing to Arkansas although it’s a precarious track, drops all the way to the Texas Bowl.
Other notes:
- With a team dropping out of the New Year’s Six, that should allow the SEC to have a school for all bowl tie-ins. For the first time all year, we project a team (Ole Miss) for the Independence Bowl.
- Having said that, there’s a chance the Magnolia State gets shut out of the bowls this year. With Chad Kelly injured, the 4-5 Ole Miss Rebels go to Texas A&M and Vanderbilt before the Egg Bowl. With Kelly out for the season, there’s a good chance the Rebels will be 4-7 before the Egg Bowl.
- If that happens, Mississippi State could potentially take the bowl spot with a win in the Egg Bowl, but the 4-5 Bulldogs need to find a win in their next two games against Alabama (highly unlikely) and at home against Arkansas.
- Kentucky at Tennessee this week is a big game for bowl placement. If Tennessee wins, even with all the dysfunction, it would have a good shot at winning out with its other games coming against Missouri and Vanderbilt. That could make them 9-3 and a possible Citrus Bowl team. If Kentucky wins, it can go into the finale against Louisville 7-4, and an upset there could get it a great bowl berth.
- Auburn will be a heavy favorite against Georgia, and if it wins, the Tigers will be 9-2 going into the Iron Bowl. Win or lose, that should be good enough for a New Year’s Six spot, and a win could make them a two-loss Playoff team.
- With a 2-7 FCS team in Western Carolina ahead, 5-4 South Carolina should have no problem getting bowl-eligible. A win over Florida this week could allow the Gamecocks to play Clemson in the finale with a chance to secure a meaningful bowl berth.
- Vanderbilt’s not out of this either. At 4-5, the Commodores have to go to Missouri, then host Ole Miss. Particuarly if Kelly is hurt, Vandy can sweep those two games and be bowl-eligible before the Tennessee game. Right now, we are projecting losses to Ole Miss and Tennessee, but Vandy’s far from dead.
2016 SEC bowl projections after Week 10 (11 invites)
- College Football Playoff semifinal (Peach Bowl): Alabama vs. Washington
- New Year’s Six (Sugar Bowl): Auburn vs. Oklahoma
- Citrus Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Virginia Tech
- Music City Bowl: Arkansas vs. Minnesota
- Outback Bowl: LSU vs. Nebraska
- TaxSlayer Bowl: Tennessee vs. Miami
- Liberty Bowl: Georgia vs. TCU
- Texas Bowl: Florida vs. Baylor
- Belk Bowl: Kentucky vs. Wake Forest
- Birmingham Bowl: South Carolina vs. South Florida
- Independence Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Pittsburgh
On the outside looking in: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Missouri
I don’t hate State’s chances against Arkansas now that things are starting to click and the Eggbowl match up is looking more favorable by the day (wish it wasn’t because of injury though). I think State might steal that Independence Bowl spot, but they’ll have to dig in and really bring it these last few weeks.
Yeh Coozie I think y’all get a bowl. Unless Pellerin is a hidden Jem we want win again!!! Good luck to y’all.
Won’t* win again
I think the Rebs have enough talent to get it done against Vandy without Kelly and the Eggbowl is always interesting. You never know how that game is gonna go.
Like I said i hope Pellerin is a Jem and can get the job done. I’m hoping aTm plays sluggish and if they do we might can squeeze by that game. If y’all play like y’all played Saturday the rest the season I like our chances against aTm more than y’all. But that’s a lot of IF’s. for now I just want to see Pellerin play and play hard and see if we can atleast get 5 wins and maybe be like Nebraska last year. They got a bowl and they went 5-7 I believe.
Must admit Coozmiester, after watching young Mr Fitzgerald mature into the type of QB the Hogs D HATES to try and deal with, I have erased the W I had penciled in for State and replaced it with a question mark. This game could well be a shoot out with 60 to 100 points combined and may come down to whoever has the ball last… After saying that, watch it be a 13-10 game.
Haha, yeah, we could see another crazy game like last year. I wouldn’t mind that. Fitz is getting red hot (just gotta cut down on picks but that’ll come with more experience) and our defense just played the best game of the season.
So how does Auburn get to the Sugar bowl if A&M has the same record? Both at 9-3 and the Aggies with the win iat Auburn?
The highest ranking sec team that doesn’t get the playoff gets the sugar bowl bid. So Bama would be in the playoff and if auburn wins out they would probably lose to the 1# rank team which means they wouldn’t fall that much in the polls. It really all depends on luck and what the committee thinks.
That’s not true. Sugar Bowl gets to choose. Sugar Bowl is contractually obligated to take an SEC team, and the SEC champion if available. If not, then Sugar Bowl can pick any SEC bowl-eligible team they want. Normally, that means they take the next highest rated team. However, they can choose anyone. They could choose TAMU if they wanted, regardless of rank, if they though TAMU would sell more tickets or get more viewers. They are not bound to take the next highest ranked SEC team.
That’s also not true anymore. For all CFP/NY6 bowls, it’s a collaborative decision between the CFP committee, the individual bowl committee, and the conference committee. For example, if the bowl committee wanted A&M but the conference wanted to send Auburn who was higher ranked according to the CFP committee, Auburn would get the nod and vice versa.
From my understanding that isn’t correct anymore. It’s based on the committee ranking.
It’s not unreasonable to think Auburn, Alabama, and A&M could all make NY6 bowls. One in the playoff, one in the Sugar bowl and one in the Cotton or Orange bowl most likely.
Up until 2 weeks ago, that’s what most analysts assumed would happen. Bama in the playoff. Tennessee in the Orange Bowl and TAMU in the Sugar Bowl. I think that’s still on the table, except exchange Auburn for Tennessee…unless Tennessee goes nuts and Auburn falters.
I personally don’t think TAMU makes a NY6 bowl either. I have been saying that they will lose to LSU, and I still believe that. Despite the loss, LSU looked really good. Etling and Fournette will play better against TAMU’s defense than Bama’s.
Agreed, TAMU’s been faltering lately and LSU played Bama closer than anyone all season and their defense looks as good as ever. We were able to (sort of but not really) contain TAMU’s offense. No reason to see why LSU can’t
No doubt LSU defense is dominating and will do well against TAMU, but even with a low score from the TAMU offense, will that non-existent LSU offense be able to outscore them? I think LSU definitely has the upper hand in this one, but don’t count TAMU out just yet.
Should Auburn lose against bama and end up 9-3, 2 of their losses will have been to the #1 and #2 teams in the country, and aTm. Meanwhile aTm will have lost to the #1, #15? And an unranked, 5-7 loss miss st team. Not only will auburn be rated higher, they will,have more excusable/quality losses.
Well at the same time Auburn lost to TAMU…..The timing of the loss could hurt Auburn as well. Losing the last game of the season mean you can’t recover. Also if it’s a bad loss you could drop a long way.
Guess we’ll just need to win it then!
I had not the slightest hope in even getting 5 wins at one point. Love him or hate him Muschamps done a pretty good job considering the talent level we were left with from Spurrier. A bowl game is just the cherry on top of our season so far, winning it would be the sprinkles
I feel like South Carolina is in a similar situation to Ole Miss when we got rid of Nutt and hired Freeze (even though Muschamp was probably a higher profile hire). We were hoping to just be competitive and start rebuilding, and then we ended up in the Compass Bowl. That set the expectations super high for Freeze, and the team and coaching staff (mostly) responded over the next three seasons. Of course, then we got hit with the ever ongoing NCAA investigation and this dumpster fire of a season. Not that I expect USC to get into NCAA trouble, I’m just saying, enjoy the season and the bowl game if you get it. But don’t put too many expectations onto next season because this season ended better than you expected. We had those crazy fans who were expecting a natty by Freeze’s third year, and now I’ve even heard fans calling for his head. We are fortunate to have even been relevant so soon after how our program looked after Nutt. So enjoy, cheer hard, and good luck. Oh, and for sure, beat Clemson!
Amen. It is good to hear a sensible fan talk. We had the same problem after Houston Nutt left, then after Petrino. Arkansas has now won 12 of its last 16 games (or something close), and you hear our fans thinking we can get a better coach then coach Beleima (not the case). The best thing a program can have is consistency in the SEC west and everyone once in a while, maybe the stars will allign (until Saban retires).
Personally, I would rather have the kids we have at kids we have at Arkansas, doing well in Academics and playing beyond their talent level.
Idiot fans are idiot fans. They don’t remember how bad things can be and have been. I just hope we keep Enos another few years.
I’d say keeping Clemsux’s offense under 40 points is gonna be a victory for us. They’re just too damn good for us to beat, but it’s football so you never know what can happen. It’s not such a crazy statement to say we can run the table in the East in the next few years with the talent we’ve been recruiting and the decline of Florida recently. Freeze is one of the better hires. Especially considering there isn’t many hot coaches on the market right now (other than Miles but he’s already picking his staff), calling for his head would be insane. Y’all have a good QB coming up in Shea Patterson and y’alls WR core is as deep as ever, establishing a run game would make y’all verrryy dangerous pretty soon. Do everyone a favor and shut that blubbering, obese idiot Stingray the hell up and beat State. I’ll be rooting for y’all.
Cocks have one of the youngest teams in the NCAA. Skill positions are mostly freshman. I would say Muschamp has done an excellent job. He also didn’t get into recruiting late in the game. Should being playing for the East title soon.
Here’s my predictions for the bowls:
Alabama vs Washington (semi final)
Citrus bowl- Texas A&M vs Louisville
Tax slayer- Florida vs Oklahoma
Sugar bowl- Auburn vs Wisconsin
Outback bowl-Tennessee vs Penn state
AT&T bowl- Georgia vs Baylor
Birmingham bowl- Kentucky vs VT
Liberty bowl- SC vs Western Kentucky
Music City bowl- Arkansas vs Florida St
Independence bowl- LSU vs Colorado
Texas bowl- Ole miss vs TCU
I really think SC would roll WKU. I saw a projection last night for us in the Texas bowl playing Houston. That’s the one I would really like to see. That said typically the Liberty Bowl and Independence bowl like SC and like to put us up against Conference USA type teams that maybe aren’t as talented but are having really good seasons. Then we proceed to play down to their level. Example of UCONN beating the snot out of us a couple years ago in a who cares bowl.
@Rockoutwithurgcockout we haven’t played down to an opponent’s level in a bowl game in a very long time. We are 4-0 in our last four bowl games against very storied programs. I think we’re doing pretty well and will do even better this year against whomever we are picked to play :-)
Fair point.
Not bad predictions. But the Outback bowl prob wouldn’t take Tennessee two years in a row.
What’s your predictions?
Is Muschamp SEC coach of the year if we win two of the final 3 and a bowl? I think so. Also think we will have up to 3 or 4 on the All-SEC Freshman team (Bentley, Dowdle, Turner, and Bryan Edwards)
Don’t rule out Orgeron if LSU runs the table.
The difference is with LSU’s talent level, they SHOULD run the table. Muschamp is making the most out what he has.
Could be Nick Saban. Replacing a 1st-round center, Heisman RB plus your other experienced RB, and a senior QB all in one year. Replacing multiple high draft picks on defense. That schedule.
If we finish undefeated against that schedule, with a historically good defense, and a true-freshman QB, I think Nick would have to be at or near the top of the list for CotY.
Honestly though you could give it to Nick every year. He has built a true dynasty at Bama and could be the SEC coach of the year every season. He’s the best coach in the league and everyone knows it, which I think hurts his chances. Can’t give it to the same guy every season….
I still think Belk Bowl or Birmingham Bowl is highly unlikely for Kentucky, I don’t see either of those games willing to risk scheduling Kentucky to play on the same day basketball goes to Ole Miss. I bet we end up in the Liberty or Music City.
I’m having trouble following the logic here. A&M drops out of sugar for losing to Mississippi. By that logic, Auburn lost to the team that lost to Mississippi but they take their spot in the Sugar? I don’t buy it. I think if the season ended today A&M still gets the Sugar, but these next three games are really going to decide it. I think it’s more likely Auburn loses to Bama than A&M losing to LSU, although both are a very likely scenario. How they each play in those games is going to be the key to the Sugar.