SEC Bowl Projections after Week 5: Who’s in, who’s out entering the bulk of SEC play?

Y’all thought we gave up on bowl projections, huh.

Not quite, but we did learn a valuable lesson: Projecting bowl games before any meaningful competition has taken place is a little like hoping Hugh Freeze will take some accountability for Auburn’s… situation… down on The Plains. Everyone’s just going to end up disappointed in the end.

As we all know, it’s a new year with a new playoff format and new programs in the SEC. 12 teams will fight for the crown as opposed to the Field of 4 it’s been in recent years.

There are 5 automatic bids (the top teams from the SEC, B1G, Big 12, ACC and G5) fighting for the top 4 seeds, which will all receive a first-round bye. All due respect to the G5 automatic bid, but they’re almost always going to get the No. 12 seed in this scenario barring a Cincinnati situation from a few years back.

The next 7 bids are awarded to the “best of the rest,” with no limit on conference representation. Expect the SEC and Big Ten to get multiple squads in with those 7, as well as perhaps 1 more ACC and Big 12 program. But don’t put too much into that – there’s a LOT of football left to be played.

The SEC is going to be a tight race this year. The conference has shed its divisions, leaving the top 2 teams to fight for a first-round bye in the SEC Championship game. Right now, those top 2 teams appear to be Alabama and Texas, with Tennessee, Mizzou and Georgia not far behind.

Let’s navigate to the bottom of the conference next. The path to 6 wins is already starting to look tough for some teams: Namely Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Auburn and Florida. Arkansas is not in the best shape either and would need a win over a (currently) ranked team to reach the 6-win mark, but they get LSU and Ole Miss at home. I’m leaving all these teams out for now except the Razorbacks.

South Carolina is the next team that could be in danger of missing out. I have them scoring exactly 6 wins right now, with the most crucial game taking place on November 2 against Texas A&M. The Gamecocks get the Aggies at home and they’re playing better football than you’d think right now. They’re in a very similar situation to Arkansas with what it would take to reach 6 wins, but I slightly give the Gamecocks the edge for now.

Let’s get to some projections:

College Football Playoff

Quarterfinal/Byes

Sugar Bowl: Texas vs. 8/9 winner

Rose Bowl: Ohio State vs. 7/10 winner

Peach Bowl: Miami vs. 5/12 winner

Fiesta Bowl: Kansas State vs. 6/11 winner

First Round

From Tuscaloosa, Alabama: No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 12 UNLV

From Clemson, South Carolina: No. 8 Clemson vs. No. 9 Penn State

From Knoxville, Tennessee: No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 11 Oregon

From Athens, Georgia: No. 7 Georgia vs. No. 10 Missouri

The Remaining SEC Bowl Projections

Citrus Bowl: LSU vs. Michigan

Reliaquest Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Indiana

Music City Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Illinois

Texas Bowl: Kentucky vs. BYU

Gator Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Rutgers

Liberty Bowl: South Carolina vs. Texas Tech

Gasparilla Bowl: Arkansas vs. East Carolina

Ethan Stone

Ethan Stone is a Tennessee graduate and loves all things college football and college basketball. Firm believer in fouling while up 3.