Bye bye, Houston.

For a while, our SEC bowl projections were forced to consider the possibility of the Houston Cougars making the College Football Playoff.

No more after the Cougars were shocked by Navy on Saturday, showing again that the triple-option never stopped working, it just went out of vogue because it was hard to attract top-level recruits who wanted to run an offense that doesn’t translate to the NFL level.

So now we move Boise State into the New Year’s Six spot and match them up with Texas A&M in the Cotton Bowl. That would be a fun matchup.

Otherwise, there isn’t much movement in our projections.

Here are a few thoughts:

  1. We bump LSU from the TaxSlayer to the Liberty Bowl. It’s looking more like a 7-5, 8-4 season for the Tigers, who are going to have a rugged stretch run given that they have to find a late-season spot for the Florida game.
  2. Auburn’s looking better and better as the year goes on. The Tigers could be an 8-4-type team and right now look like a good bet for a nice bowl like the TaxSlayer Bowl against a brand-name ACC team like Miami or (maybe) Florida State. Auburn’s probably a favorite against Georgia at this point, so it’s not inconceivable, with an upset of Ole Miss, for the Tigers to be 9-2 heading to the Iron Bowl.
  3. Watch out for Kentucky. The Wildcats have three wins, will likely be favored at home against Mississippi State after the upcoming bye week, have a gimme down the road against Austin Peay and would need just one more win out of games against Missouri, Georgia, Tennessee and Louisville to be bowl-eligible. That looks manageable.
  4. Kentucky could trade spots with Missouri if UK win No. 6 comes against the Tigers. Mizzou (2-3) has a game against Middle Tennessee and winnable games against Vanderbilt and South Carolina. Assuming the Tigers win all those and (in this scenario) lose to Kentucky, win No. 6 would have to come out of games against Florida, Tennessee and Arkansas, a tough trio.

2016 SEC bowl projections after Week 6 (10 invites)

  • College Football Playoff semifinal (Peach Bowl): Alabama vs. Washington
  • New Year’s Six (Sugar Bowl): Tennessee vs. Oklahoma
  • New Year’s Six (Cotton Bowl): Texas A&M vs. Boise State
  • Citrus Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Nebraska
  • Music City Bowl: Arkansas vs. Iowa
  • Outback Bowl: Florida vs. Wisconsin
  • TaxSlayer Bowl: Auburn vs. Miami
  • Liberty Bowl: LSU vs. Kansas State
  • Texas Bowl: Missouri vs. Oklahoma State
  • Belk Bowl: Georgia vs. Wake Forest

On the outside looking in: Mississippi State, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Kentucky