SEC Bowl Projections following Week 10: Welcome to bowl eligibility, Vanderbilt!

For the first time since 2018, the Vanderbilt Commodores are going bowling.

Don’t forget, this is during a season which saw Vanderbilt fall to Georgia State. The Commodores were the only SEC team to clinch bowl eligibility on Saturday, doing so with a win over Auburn.  Three teams – Oklahoma, South Carolina and Arkansas – are just one win away.

Arkansas and South Carolina should be able to reach 6 wins. The Gamecocks actually rose considerably in the projections thanks to their dismantling of Texas A&M (more on that later) paired with their play against other ranked opponents (2-point loss to Alabama, 3-point loss to LSU).

Arkansas is in the same tier, despite its loss to Ole Miss this weekend. They’ll clinch eligibility against Louisiana Tech and should play a tight game against Mizzou to end the year. For that reason, the Razorbacks stay in the Texas Bowl for now. Oklahoma is still on the outside looking in, needing to beat one of Mizzou, Alabama or LSU. Both matchups against the Tigers are on the road. It’s manageable, but the odds aren’t in their favor.

I’ll be the first to say it: Texas A&M tricked me. I said last week the Aggies could beat Texas at Kyle Field, and I still believe it’s a possibility due to A&M’s imposing gameday atmosphere. But I can’t count it as a win for the Aggies now, not after that mess against the Gamecocks. For that reason, they’re on the way out while LSU is on the way in.

LSU is not all that impressive in my eyes. But considering Clemson, Iowa State and Kansas State all lost this weekend, it’s tough to pencil anyone else in considering the opportunity that remains for bubble teams. Alabama and SMU are the only other programs that make sense to include in the projections following Week 10, but there are problems with taking either party over LSU.

SMU’s turn-off is obvious. The Mustangs haven’t beat any team of substance this season. Pitt was oozing fraudulence, which leaves Louisville as their best win. But it’s simply a “fine” win. It’s not Alabama over Georgia, and it’s not LSU over Ole Miss. More importantly, it’s not potentially LSU over Alabama.

Which brings us to why LSU is above Alabama – The Tigers draw the Crimson Tide next Saturday at Death Valley – which should terrify Alabama fans. By no means should you count Alabama out of this thing, but we’ve got to roll with the odds here.

A note on Tennessee, which enters the Playoff field alongside LSU and Indiana thanks to Saturday’s chaos. If the Vols beat Georgia, they’re in. If they lose to Georgia they are still in excellent shape thanks to Clemson, Kansas State and Iowa State faltering with no great wins between them. On top of all that, one of LSU and Alabama will be out of the picture after next Saturday. The key for the Vols at this point is style and beating that pesky team over in Nashville.

Until next week, college football.

College Football Playoff

Sugar Bowl: Oregon vs. 8/9 winner

Rose Bowl: Georgia vs. 7/10 winner

Peach Bowl: Miami vs. 6/11 winner

Fiesta Bowl: BYU vs. 5/12 winner

First Round

From Columbus, Ohio: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 12 LSU

From State College, Pennsylvania: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 11 Boise State

From South Bend, Indiana: No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Indiana

From Austin, Texas: No. 8 Texas vs. No. 9 Tennessee

The Rest

Citrus Bowl: Alabama vs. Illinois

ReliaQuest Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Minnesota

Las Vegas Bowl: Ole Miss vs. Colorado

Texas Bowl: Arkansas vs. Texas Tech

Music City Bowl: South Carolina vs. Iowa

Gator Bowl: Mizzou vs. Louisville

Liberty Bowl: Vanderbilt vs. Cincinnati

Birmingham Bowl: Florida vs. Wake Forest

Ethan Stone

Ethan Stone is a Tennessee graduate and loves all things college football and college basketball. Firm believer in fouling while up 3.