SEC Bowl Projections after Week 13: Guess who crashed party?

Jim Tomlin | 4 months ago

Vanderbilt, welcome aboard.

You too, Birmingham Bowl.

The Commodores wrapped up the SEC’s 11th and final bowl berth of the 2018 season on Saturday by routing Tennessee. Vandy got its sixth win while the Vols finished 5-7 and out of the picture (there are already 82 teams eligible for 78 spots so there will be no 5-7 bowl teams this year).

As for the rest of the bowl picture, we still have Alabama playing Oklahoma in a College Football Playoff semifinal after No. 4 Michigan lost at Ohio State. For now the projection is that the Sooners will just edge the Buckeyes for the No. 4 seed and a CFP semifinal spot (assuming Oklahoma beats Texas in the Big 12 title game). This, obviously, also assumes that Bama beats Georgia in the SEC title game; the Bulldogs seem like a lock to be ranked fourth in this week’s CFP poll but are projected to fall back out of the top four with a loss.

LSU’s loss to Texas A&M on Saturday, I think, knocks the Tigers out of a New Year’s 6 bowl. Florida moves to the Fiesta and No. 12 Penn State jumps into the NY6 lineup, so the SEC will have three teams in major bowls instead of four. LSU falls behind both UF and PSU — perhaps harsh, but in line with CFP ranking trends — then several other SEC teams shuffle accordingly.

So, because the SEC loses a spot in the NY6, the Birmingham Bowl returns to our projections after being absent for weeks. Because 11 SEC teams are bowl eligible, the six bowls clumped together after the Citrus Bowl’s selection will be all the ones with winning records. Vandy, at 6-6, gets picked last among the league’s bowl-eligible teams.

As always, this is a prediction of where teams will be after Saturday’s conference championship games, not where they are now. That disclaimer does not apply quite like it usually does but there could still be more chaos around the country with every league determining its champion. So even on a week where only Alabama and Georgia play (plus South Carolina’s meaningless makeup game against Akron), SEC teams might yet take one more spin on the bowl roulette wheel.

Now for our SEC bowl projections:

CFP Semifinal (Orange Bowl)
December 29, 2018
Miami, FL
vs.

Sugar Bowl
January 1, 2019
New Orleans, LA
vs.

Fiesta Bowl
January 1, 2019
Glendale, AZ
vs.

Citrus Bowl
January 1, 2019
Orlando, FL
vs.

Outback Bowl
January 1, 2019
Tampa, FL
vs.

TaxSlayer Bowl
December 31, 2018
Jacksonville, FL
vs.

Liberty Bowl
December 31, 2018
Memphis, TN
vs.

Belk Bowl
December 29, 2018
Charlotte, NC
vs.

Music City Bowl
December 28, 2018
Nashville, TN
vs.

Texas Bowl
December 27, 2018
Houston, TX
vs.

Birmingham Bowl
December 22, 2018
Birmingham, AL
vs.

2017-2018 POSTSEASON
CFP NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP
26
vs.
23

CFP SEMIFINAL (SUGAR BOWL)
24
vs.
6

CFP SEMIFINAL (ROSE BOWL)
54
vs.
48

PEACH BOWL
27
vs.
34

CITRUS BOWL
21
vs.
17

OUTBACK BOWL
26
vs.
19

TAXSLAYER BOWL
31
vs.
27

MUSIC CITY BOWL
23
vs.
24

BELK BOWL
52
vs.
55

TEXAS BOWL
33
vs.
16

The

Comments Section (Hot Takes Welcome!)

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  • LSU is starting to hate Texas A&M.

    • Hate the refs not TAMU. LSU should be 10-2, absolutely brutal officiating.

      • LSU lost, the game is finally over, time to move on regardless of who you want to blame.

        • UGAMYRet did you watch the f*cking game? Before you come spew your typical nonsense, actually watch the game.

        • LegendDD2, I watched the entire game. I saw one bad call and one bad no-call. Otherwise I saw close calls that could have gone either way (the non-fumble) or that only looked bad due to an incorrect yellow first down line graphic. Did TAMU get pretty much all the close calls? Sure. Home cooking. Did that cost LSU the win? Nope.

        • It’s always the refs fault when it comes to DD2..

        • It absolutely cost LSU the win…Anyone who watched the game could see that. BamaTime, no trolls allowed, be gone.

        • Well the Refs gifted the Auburn game to LSU…so it’s a wash.

        • You got to stop posting if no trolls allowed DD2…

        • BT, let the grown ups talk..

    • Aggies always hated y’all. Horse collaring Myles Garrett and all of the other crap y’all usually get away with. Dirty players. Dirty program. Dirty town. Corndogger U. Smells that way because of sewer running a mile wide by it.

      • Must be the Aggie jokes. For what it’s worth, we always hated the Longhorns more than the Aggies. The Aggies were never good enough to be worth hating. The Aggies still aren’t good enough. But if they bought referees, that’s hate worthy. That’s something Auburn would have done.

        • Yeah…the team that consistently gets screwed by the refs when they play LSU is the one paying refs… geez, get a life.

        • Pretty sure the LSU players on the field last night would disagree with your ignorant take on how good the Aggies are. You guys are slapping the face of every player that left all they had on that field, both sides of the ball. Enjoy the incredible season LSU has had and quit ignoring their achievement because of your own bitter and selfish resentment. On the other side, Aggies fought their asses off, many for the last time, and don’t deserve the ignorance being spewed around diminishing their play. Get over it.

      • Lmao this thread is awesome. 1st down marker has been revealed to be a tv error, so that one is debunked. But the illegal formation and not being set on the spike (think lsu Auburn in miles last game), the questionable fumble AND int, the bogus pi on the 2pt conversion, and the missed false start in ot have all drawn national attention. It isnt a conspiracy theory. It isnt purple and gold tinted glasses. National pundits all over the country have been saying lsu flat out got hosed. Really the only dissenters are aggies or other disgruntled sec fans with a reason to dislike lsu. Weagle you’re nuts. The call i remember most in the lsu aub game was the clear turnover inside your own 20 that wouldve put us up 2 scores before yall surged that was never reviewed. So gtfo with that

        • You must not be paying attention. Everyone one of your claims was debunked by your own beat writers, not just the 1st down marker one. There was no illegal formation, one idiot former player made that statement and you all bought into it. The fumble was a 50/50 call but not enough to overturn it, and yes it was reviewed while Coach O was arguing with the refs, just never announced. The pass interference was another 50/50 call but still a legitimate call. LSU got all the 50/50 calls in the first half but LSU fans seem to want to forget that part. False starts and holds were missed the entire game by both sides, but go ahead and focus on just that one. For the last time, how can the only dissenters be Aggies or people that dislike LSU when it was an LSU fan and writer from Baton Rouge that debunked all these “bad calls”?

  • I think LSU still has a decent shot at a NY6 bowl, but I’m perfectly happy if we don’t. I’ve said all along I just want a 10th win this season. A lesser bowl should give us an easier opponent. I think LSU will be plenty fired up no matter where they end up.

  • Of course UGA has no chance, has been written off and probably should not even show up Saturday. We sure wouldn’t want to upset any of the bowl predictions.

  • Baylor, what the crap?

    This is why winning UK/USC was so important, we should be playing ranked teams at least. Baylor in Memphis is like excommunication or leprosy.

  • I’m thrilled to be in a position to get to a decent bowl (or any bowl) this year – especially after last year’s fiasco. Thank you Dan Mullen! I’m hearing about a few possible bowl games and opponents for us. Would love the Fiesta or Peach. What’s more intriguing is the opponent: An undefeated UCF (with a healthy McKenzie Milton) would have garnered a LOT of national attention and interest just because of the UCF “story”. Without McKenzie, this has zero appeal to me – it’s only good if you get their best shot with their best player. Prayers for that young man’s full recovery. West Virginia would be fun – facing Will Grier (loved him when he was with a Gator). Much respect for that guy as a QB and leader. Michigan would be great (talk about a revenge tour…) since they have a great brand and, again, would garner some interest. With Dan Mullen, I think we’d be far better prepared and equipped (coached) for giving them a game (unlike the last 2 times). Though we all can’t wait for next August and can’t believe the season is about over, this is typically a fun time talking about possible match-ups. Guaranteed we’ll get some boring as hell games, but it’s cool to think about. Go SEC!!!

  • I think I would rather see MSU in the Gator…er…Taxslayer than the Texas. Lets trade, A&M.

  • Happy to be considered for a bowl this year since we have no defense left. But NC State…bummer. Nobody from State will show up.

  • Mizzou is the best 8-4 team in the league. They should be down here in Florida come bowl time. Beat Florida, which beat LSU; beat UT which beat Auburn which beat TAMU. This is how it’s done when teams didn’t play each other. Mizzou has won the last 4 out of 5, TAMU and LSU have won three out of the last five. Only here do they rewrite how it’s done.

  • Missouri will get to play in Florida if LSU makes a NY6 bowl. There is still a very good chance for that to happen. The committee has shown more respect for LSU than any other ranking organization.

  • Y’all do realize if Bama wins, they’ll more likely end up in the Cotton Bowl, not the Orange Bowl, as Dallas is closer to Tuscaloosa than Miami Gardens is, right?

    • Not if OU is the opponent. They had Bama in the Cotton Bowl when Michigan was the opponent. But Oklahoma is closer to Texas which would give OU the advantage and not Alabama.

    • Not necessarily. Depends who gets that 4 seed. The higher ranked seed is supposed to have a geographical advanatage, which Bama would not have in Dallas if Oklahoma makes it in. If 4 is Ohio State, then sure.

  • How can Michigan be in the Fiesta Bowl? It is understood that UCF is guaranteed a Fiesta Bowl berth since they did not make it into the final four. That way Florida v. UCF is the projected game for this bowl.

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