SEC bowl projections, Week 5: What to do with Auburn?
Saturday’s Week 5 games saw no upsets in the SEC and few around the country. Among teams ranked in last week’s Associated Press poll, only No. 15 Cal and No. 24 Kansas State lost to unranked teams. And in both games where two ranked teams met, the higher-ranked team won.
Frankly, the most interesting result in the country was the upset that almost happened.
North Carolina came within a failed 2-point conversion of perhaps knocking off No. 1-ranked defending national champion Clemson. Had the Tar Heels gone ahead by a point by converting, the Tigers still would have had 1:17 remaining and two timeouts, and that Trevor Lawrence dude at quarterback. So saying that UNC would have won with that 2-point conversion is speculative.
But it’s fun to imagine the possibilities.
Had Clemson lost, the SEC bowl picture would have been thrown wide open.
In addition to Alabama and Georgia, the top 4 in our projections could very well have included No. 4 LSU. As it is, we are still projecting Oklahoma to be in the College Football Playoff, along with the Crimson Tide, Dawgs and Clemson Tigers, because the Sooners appear to have the easiest path to an undefeated season.
And what about Auburn? After taking apart Mississippi State on Saturday, the Tigers are 5-0 and look to have about as nasty of a defense as anybody in the country, certainly up front. So why is Auburn still not even projected into the New Year’s Day 6 here? Because, again, this is a projection of where teams will end up in December, not where they are at the end of September.
Put it this way: The SEC has five unbeaten teams ranked in the Top 10 of the AP poll — Alabama, Auburn and LSU in the West Division, Georgia and Florida in the East. Only Auburn has to play all four of those other top-10 teams. That’s too hard of a slog. Probably. If we’re wrong, the Tigers will nudge into at least the NYD6 if not the CFP projections.
As far as the middle of the SEC goes, Mississippi State did not move after its loss to Auburn, and two East Division rivals, Kentucky and South Carolina, produced the result we expected when the Gamecocks beat the Wildcats, so none of those teams move in our projections, either.
Arkansas kept things close against Texas A&M in the SEC’s tightest game of the day, but the Razorbacks saw their conference losing streak extend to 13, dating back to 2017. Sorry, Hogs, but even if you beat Western Kentucky (not a given after that San Jose State loss), you still have to win three SEC games to reach six victories and bowl eligibility. You need to win one SEC game before we entertain thoughts of you winning three.
As for Ole Miss, it’s interesting that the Rebels put up 31 points on Alabama, and that they led 10-7 early. But there was nothing to truly indicate that they are going to go 4-4 in the SEC, which is what they’d have to do to become bowl eligible after suffering two nonconference losses.
Vanderbilt and Tennessee are also still out of the picture, and Missouri remains in bowl limbo with the NCAA, so we’re only projecting nine SEC teams to go to bowls.
Now, on to our bowl projections:
If Auburn cannot manage a NY6 bowl or CFP slot this year…pray for the team against us…Purdue 2.0 with the team we have…
Auburn is going to win the CFP Get over it
I’m sorry nudge into the new years 6 or the cfp if we survive that gauntlet??? Let’s put this into scenario. If we run that gauntlet (huge huge if) and come out undefeated, we will be the number one team in the country no questions asked. If we lose 1 game, pick any of the 4 ranked we play, then it’s still virtually impossible to leave us out of the cfp. If we go 2-2 in there, again take your pick of which 2, we won’t likely make the cfp without a lot of help and other teams losing but should be a lock for a new years 6. The way we’re playing losing two or even just one is a possibility, but this is the SEC and there’s a lot of really good teams so never know what’s gonna happen til timer hits double 00.
Who woulda thought whipping Miss State would propel Auburn to a national championship? My goodness, we should end the season now and hand them the trophy.
I understand the projections…we do have the toughest road ahead. But who else has the better resume up until now?
Depends how you look at it. Auburn has a pretty good win (as of today) over Oregon, but still not sure how good they really are until they play someone good. Not sure how good those A&M and MSU wins are, but they’re conference opponents and Auburn handled them pretty easily (very easily in the case of MSU). LSU probably has a better win than that over Texas on the road. UGA probably has the best win so far, even though it’s at home. Auburn probably has the best collective set of wins with UGA having the best win overall. As of today anyway.
I don’t know if UGA could’ve gone into Austin and did what LSU did. I have that as #1 win, NDU as #2 and the neutral Oregon win #3.
Auburn certainly has the overall right now with two ranked wins away from home.
TBD for the rest of the season, but it looks like one of those classic Gus’s Magical Seasons brought to by The Hot Seat.
Narrowly beating Notre Dame at home isn’t that impressive. I’m not saying beating Oregon at a neutral site is the best … I think LSU winning at Texas is the best so far.
Beating a top ten team that made the playoffs a year ago is good in my book anyday. Is a Texas road win better? Maybe. But those are the two best wins of any team thus far in the season. So I guess no other team has been impressive to you either.
I think the LSU win at Texas and Georgia’s ND win are about equal. I think ND is slightly better than Texas, but LSU did beat Texas on the road. Auburn has the best resume as the only team with 2 top 25 wins, although I’ll admit the Texas A&M win probably won’t look as good by season’s end.
Gonna be fun in BR, can’t wait to see dreams destroyed..
Blowing out a mediocre Mississippi State team really does a lot for the self esteem these days I see….
Auburn has to get their self esteem anywhere they can buy it.
South Carolina has 2 wins. If we assume (correctly?) that they will defeat Tennessee, Vanderbilt, and App State, that’s 5 W’s.
The remaining games are vs. Georgia, Florida, Texas A&M, and Clemson; of those four, only Florida is a home game.
Which one is win #6? (They had better hope to beat Florida.)
TAMU is looking very beatable, in my opinion. SC will have their chances.
Hard to believe a Will Muschamp coached team will leave College Station with a W.
Very hard to believe but hey, the Aggies continue to disappoint this year.
SC will win 6 games & make a bowl
I mean, that’s not an argument. Which ones?
I didn’t last week, but after man-handling Kentucky, I think they have a shot. Not a good chance, but a chance.
They could beat A&M or upset UF at home and it wouldn’t be totally shocking. The problem is that I also think they are capable at their worst to getting rolled by any of the “sure wins”, so I still think 5-7 is pretty likely.
I don’t like the thought of an LSU-Texas rematch. Give the Bayou Bengals some fresh meat to chew on.
Suger Bowl goes to the highest-ranked SEC (not in the playoffs) and highest-ranked Big 12 (not in the playoffs). Since LSU gets UT at home next year, I’d prefer a different opponent, but if that’s how it works out, so be it.
“What to do with auburn”, you ask?
Well you reserve their annual spot in the kotex bowl. That’s what you do with them.
After they lose to LSU, UGA, UF, Bama, do they still get the Kotex bowl?
Oh such a typical Bama fan not giving any credit where it’s due… keep playing your soft schedule though… it’s laughable you think the team with one of/if not the best defense in the country will lose all 4 of those games… they’ll beat Florida and Georgia
What they don’t have is a reliable passing game. Shut down the run and they are toast. I’m not saying it will be easy. But it can be done. The defense is great up front but has shown some cracks in the pass. They could be out muscled by UGA & UF while just plain outscored by UA &. LSU.
My only real concern against Florida is it’s on the road. If it were at home I’d feel really confident about Auburn winning that one. LSU is interesting because we still don’t really know just how good they are yet, or how much their defense will progress as the season goes on. They haven’t shown they can put up 30 or 40 on an elite defense like Auburn’s yet. And Auburn will always have a chance against Georgia and Alabama when they come to Jordan-Hare.
Unwad your panties Scotty! This is the first time I’ve seen your name on here, so I assume you’re new. I’m not a “typical Bama fan”, or a troll. I simply talk trash in jest. I certainly give Auburn credit for what they’ve done so far. They’re a solid team this year, and I doubt they lose all the games I mentioned above. It’s all in fun, unlike some of the trolls here, bo venom. Honestly, I think AU loses to UF, because Gus tends to have a game each year that he just simply fails to get his team to show up for, and UF has a defense that can give Auburn fits. But they are certainly more than capable of winning that game. Then I think they upset LSU in a rebound, then shock either Bama or UGA, because Gus also has a tradition of winning a game he’s not expected to here and there.
I just hope they’re undefeated when Bama meets them. That means they got their shocker out of the way with UGA.
But who knows? I’m just a football fan, not a fortune teller!
After Auburn loses to those four teams, they just get flushed. Shreveport awaits.
Take any division you like. A beats B, B beats C, and C beats A. Enjoy the cow manure opinions from that and it will easily be a worse quagmire than that.
Is there a Surprise Bowl berth for Mizzou?
I hope you surprise the NCAA and get out of that awful penalty.
I hope they do too. Antideluvian has turned in to our resident troll. Maybe allow better outlets.
No
Auburn is getting a lot of hype and credit up until this point in the season. But what Auburn fans fail to realize is that the remainder of their schedule is at least 3 times more difficult as playing Oregon, Texas A&M, and Miss State. Now replace those teams with LSU, Georgia, and Bama. Lets see how that works out for you Auburn.
That’s true. If only we could play Bama’s schedule ….
Yeah, it’s not. Leg humpers & Updykes are home games. See ’17 how that works out…
I kinda liked how ‘17 worked out, didn’t you?
Worked out great for Bama…
Worked out. That was 2 years ago and has nothing to do with this year. Worry about Florida. They will the best team you have this year by far.
*Best defense*
Just to stir the pot, the most impressive win this year will be Florida over Auburn in 5 days. Yes, we have no run game and haven’t played anyone and have not looked impressive and lost our starting QB, but I believe the Swamp will be rocking and Auburn is buying into it’s own hype and drinking the koolaid. Classic college football, when the media train jumps on a team and then they lose.
Go Gators
From a Georgia fan’s perspective, it warms my heart to know one of these teams has to lose lol
agdawg, you should be hoping for Florida to lose. It would widen UGA’s lead in the East while also making Auburn look like a stronger opponent.
Auburn’s turn to play Michigan? Must be Florida’s year off.
Finally