SEC bowl projections, Week 7: Who replaces Georgia in CFP?
Delete Georgia, insert LSU-Florida winner.
Sometimes these projections really are that simple.
LSU proved once and for all that it is one of the four best teams in America with its two-touchdown victory over Florida on Saturday. That, combined with Georgia’s loss at home to unranked South Carolina, was more than enough evidence to put LSU into the College Football Playoff projections.
Even if Alabama beats LSU on Nov. 9 (that is still the projection here because the king is still the king until somebody dethrones him), the thinking here is that, assuming LSU finishes 11-1, that Tigers resume is going to be undeniable to the CFP committee.
So LSU simply takes the place of UGA in the CFP field here. I think the committee will reward LSU with a No. 3 seed in the semifinals even over (presumably) undefeated Oklahoma simply because of strength of schedule. Now, should both Oklahoma and whoever wins the Big Ten finish undefeated as well as (again presumably) Bama and Clemson, the Tigers might have a problem.
But based on rankings in the past, the CFP voters take strength of schedule and quality of victories very seriously. LSU has a win over Florida at home and against Texas on the road. Should LSU finish 7-1 in the challenging SEC West plus owning that road win over the Longhorns, it would be very tough for the CFP committee to say no to Ed Orgeron’s bunch.
Meanwhile, going into Saturday I was thinking very seriously about jumping Florida over Georgia in these projections if the Gators won at LSU.
UF lost, but I left thinking something that would have been far from my mind when Feleipe Franks went down with an injury a few weeks ago: Florida might just beat Georgia and win the SEC East.
That’s now the call here. An overreaction to Georgia’s loss? Perhaps. But overreactions are part of what makes college football fun.
And yet again, a reminder: These projections are about where we think these teams will finish in December, not where they are now.
We are still projecting only nine SEC teams to make bowls until (if) the NCAA comes to its senses and allows Missouri to play in the postseason. The bottom group of Tennessee (despite its win Saturday), Ole Miss, Arkansas and especially Vanderbilt have done nothing to suggest they will reach six wins. Mississippi State is now in trouble as well.
We said that South Carolina would need to pull off an upset to get to six wins, and the Gamecocks did that, so they stay in our list.
Now, on to our bowl projections: