Forgive us if this game felt inevitable, but the laws of college football tell us that where the matchup feels obvious, the results will probably be anything but. Alabama and Georgia are right where we thought they’d be, so let’s look at some things that might be surprising — specifically, here are 10 bold predictions for the SEC title game.

1. Georgia can run on Alabama — Swiftly

Historically, Alabama’s run defense has been epic. Yes, Georgia countered it last year, but with Sony Michel and Nick Chubb, all things are possible. This year? Actually, they’ll be fine. Alabama has struggled (relatively) with run defense this year, particularly against teams that have a legitimate dual threat. The Tide have given up 170-plus rushing yards four times and 115-plus seven times. Meanwhile, Georgia hasn’t been held under 113 rushing yards (LSU) and has rushed for 185-plus in their other 11 games. The Bulldogs might not get to 185 yards in this one, but they’ll go for 150, with D’Andre Swift topping 100 for the fifth time in his last six games.

2. The Tide could do the same — but won’t

The longer the season has gone, the more Alabama has been willing to run to set up the pass, which has flipped their script from pretty much forever. They’ll still get their yards, but in the games in which Alabama has actually been challenged (basically, to some extent, the last four), they’ve still passed for more yards than they’ve gained rushing. Alabama will run for 100-150 yards, but no Tide player will crack 50.

3. Tua will get hit

Georgia’s pass rush isn’t the stuff of legend (20 sacks), but it was especially bad entering November. In their last four games, the Bulldogs have 10 sacks and 23 quarterback hurries. D’Andre Walker in particular has emerged, and he’ll get to Tua Tagovailoa a couple of times. That may not sound like much, but only once all season has Alabama given up more than 1 sack. Georgia will get 3, which could be pivotal because …

4. UGA has to get turnovers — and will

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The secret to beating Georgia? This season’s stats say get into the red zone EIGHT times like LSU did. No, eight probably isn’t a requirement, but given Alabama’s methodical excellence on offense, they’re going to put up the yardage to go up and down the field … which Georgia can offset only in a couple of ways, one being turnovers. Coming off their loss to LSU, Georgia forced multiple turnovers from Florida and Kentucky, which helped them to two of their best efforts of the season. They’ll have to force a couple to hang around in this game, and we think they will — a pair of fumbles.

5. Tua is going to do Tua things

Can he play in the fourth quarter? We think this is the game to find out. Georgia will up their pass rush pressure and has excellent talent in the secondary but has struggled at times with pass defense. Giving up 200 passing yards might happen against Missouri or LSU, but the Bulldogs also did that against Kentucky and UMass. We’ll put Tua down for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns.

6. Fromm is fine, but is he enough?

Georgia is best when Jake Fromm has to do less. In his UGA career, the Bulldogs are 21-0 when he throws 25 or fewer passes in a game. When he throws more than 25? 3-3. Fromm has been incredibly efficient this season, and if he only has to pass 22 or 23 times, he’ll probably notch 175 yards and a touchdown or two. The scary thing for UGA is that in those 25 or fewer attempts games, he has thrown 40 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and in the more than 25 attempts games, it’s 8 touchdowns to 6 interceptions. We’re thinking he has to go above 25 attempts, and that accordingly, he’ll throw a couple to Alabama defenders.

7. Waddle could be dangerous

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Special teams is also a key area of this game, and if it benefits Alabama, it’s probably because it involves Jaylen Waddle. Georgia’s punt coverage has been outstanding, as the Bulldogs have a 350-28 punt return yard advantage over their opponents … but none of them are quite like Waddle. Mecole Hardman is the returner whom everybody knows, but Waddle will have a big return to give the Tide a short field at some point on Saturday.

8. Hot Rod counters

On the other hand, Alabama has well-documented kicking troubles, and Rodrigo Blankenship has no such problems for Georgia. We noted above that in Georgia’s only loss, they gave up 8 red zone possessions. Well, those turned into 5 LSU field goals and 3 touchdowns. Alabama might well shank a field goal or two, but Blankenship ensures that UGA won’t waste their yardage. We think Blankenship knocks down a couple of field goals, including a 50-yarder. Meanwhile, Alabama will miss at least one kick.

9. Georgia starts hot

Alabama hasn’t been so good out of the gate lately. In their last two games, they were tied with The Citadel and led Auburn by a mere 17-14 margin. Meanwhile, Georgia is playing its best football of the year and has been particularly sharp early in games. We’ll take Georgia early, with a run-based attack and a defense playing bend-but-don’t break. We’d see this as a 24-14-type game at halftime, with Georgia shocking the world.

10. Alabama finishes

Alabama hasn’t REALLY been challenged, so there is the element of wondering what happens next. What we think happens is that Tua goes from chunks of yards to chunks of points, that Alabama figures out a way to climb ahead, maybe 37-34 late, and that Georgia is driving to try to take the lead … when Fromm makes a costly mistake and a pick-six score sends Alabama back to the CFP and Georgia again wondering what it will take to win a second half over the Tide. Alabama winning might not be bold, but if not, consider that we’re also saying to take the over, and that the Tide don’t cover the point spread.