Everything you need to know about the Week 14 SEC slate, all in one place.

(All betting lines via FanDuel Sportsbook.)

Game of the Week: Texas (–5.5) at Texas A&M

The stakes

It has been a minute — hell, it has been a solid decade-plus — but Longhorns-Aggies in late November just feels right. Nearly every single one of the 109 games between Texas and Texas A&M dating back to 1903 has been played on or around Thanksgiving Day, the most recent entry coming in a 2011 nail-biter decided on a walk-off field goal by Texas’ Justin Tucker. If anything, after an acrimonious divorce and 12-year hiatus on the field the hostility is as palpable as ever, the absence of the game itself allowing a backyard rivalry to boil over into an outright feud complete with legal sparring and both sides generally pretending they never wanted to see each other again. The one and only good thing to come out of the latest round of conference realignment was getting Horns-Ags back on the annual calendar.

Fittingly, the reunion is one of the most high-stakes entries in the series since the programs were kingpins of the old Southwest Conference. Bragging rights come with tangible rewards: The winner on Saturday will advance to play Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, with the league title and an automatic 1st-round bye in the College Football Playoff on the line. For Texas (10-1), a loss in College Station would be a serious blow to its national championship odds, costing the ‘Horns a bye and potentially forcing them to play on the road in the opening round. For A&M (8-3), coming off back-to-back losses in SEC play, another loss would slam the door on the Playoff altogether, setting a once-promising season on course for a crash landing in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Every team on the CFP bubble is rooting against Texas A&M, for the same reason bubble teams in basketball root against underdogs in the conference tournaments: The Aggies might be out of the running for an at-large spot themselves, but they can still send ripple effects down the food chain by forcing Texas and Georgia to take the at-large route, which would leave 1 fewer slot available for, say, Tennessee, or the loser of the ACC Championship Game. They’d love nothing more than to make the committee’s job more difficult.

The stat: 63.2%

That’s the percentage of Texas’ total receiving yards this season that have come via yards after catch, per Pro Football Focus, easily the highest share in the SEC. Where the average offense generates roughly half of its production through the air after the catch, for the Longhorns, the ratio is closer to two-thirds.

That’s a reflection of one of the most screen-happy attacks in America. Nearly a third of QB Quinn Ewers‘ passes this season have landed behind the line of scrimmage, easily the highest rate in the SEC; on the other hand, he has the league’s lowest rate of passes of 20+ air yards, at just 11.6 percent. Altogether, Ewers’ average depth of target (7.0 yards) is 1 full yard below any other current SEC starter.

A reluctance to throw deep doesn’t necessarily mean the Longhorns aren’t explosive, especially with Steve Sarkisian pulling the strings; in fact, Texas leads the SEC in plays of 20+ yards vs. Power 4 opponents. The screen game is diverse and efficient, heavily involving running backs, wideouts and the team’s leading receiver, tight end Gunnar Helm. Two weeks ago, the ‘Horns scored 2 long touchdowns on screen passes in a 49-17 rout over Florida, covering 50 and 34 yards, respectively; the target on the latter, Alabama transfer Isaiah Bond, averages a healthy 13.2 yards on receptions behind the line of scrimmage with 3 touchdowns on the year. The downfield passing attack does leave a lot to be desired, but outside of the Longhorns’ lone defeat against Georgia. it has not stopped them from moving the ball or scoring at a well-above-average pace.

The big question: Can A&M force Ewers out of his comfort zone?

The most telling feature of Texas’ offense isn’t really long vs. short or conservative vs. aggressive. It’s the fact that, thanks largely to the defense, the Longhorns are almost always playing with the lead, which allows them to play any way they want. Excluding the loss to Georgia, they’ve trailed for a grand total of 8 minutes in their 10 wins, all in the 1st half. That’s an enormous benefit to both Ewers and Sarkisian, neither of whom has felt the need to depart from the script because the scoreboard is tilted against him.

Of course, the exception is a glaring one. The Longhorns’ 30-15 loss to Georgia in Week 8 was among the worst of Ewers’ career, yielding 5 sacks, 3 turnovers and his worst ratings of the past 2 seasons in terms of both efficiency (110.0) and QBR (21.8). Texas trailed 23-0 at the half and never seriously threatened to close the gap despite moving the ball at a much better clip after halftime. A&M boasts at least 3 next-level edge rushers in Nic Scourton, Shemar Stewart and Cashius Howell, as well as a nose for the ball; see its last big primetime triumph at Kyle Field, a come-from-behind, 38-23 win over LSU in Week 9, when it pulled away on the strength of 3 2nd-half interceptions. Ewers’ efficiency plummets under pressure, where his lack of mobility is arguably his biggest liability. (Another reason the offense is designed to get the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible.) If he routinely finds himself in situations that call for him to stand and deliver from the pocket, the Aggies have him where they want him.

The key matchup: Texas A&M OT Dametrious Crownover vs. Texas edge Barryn Sorrell

Texas invested heavily over the offseason in upgrading a mediocre edge-rushing rotation, adding a big-ticket transfer (Trey Moore from UTSA) and a 5-star freshman (Colin Simmons). Both of those additions have paid off, especially Simmons, a rising star. But the Longhorns’ most productive pass rusher has been Sorrell, a holdover who’s enjoying a breakout senior campaign in his final season on campus. Per PFF, Sorrell leads the team with 38 QB pressures and 8 hits to go with his 4.5 sacks, effectively matching his 2023 production in nearly 200 fewer snaps.

On the other side, Texas A&M is crossing its fingers that Crownover can hold his own on the right side. Although he looks the part at 6-7, 330 pounds, Crownover has struggled in protection, allowing a team-high 18 QB pressures on the year (although no sacks, per PFF). Nearly half of those pressures have come in the Aggies’ most recent losses against South Carolina and Auburn, both of which necessarily involved more obvious passing downs after they fell behind big in the 1st half in both games. QB Marcel Reed‘s dual-threat skill set doesn’t exactly lend itself to throwing his way out of a deficit to begin with; add the prospect of Texas’ edge-rushing rotation going up against a couple gettable tackles in Crownover and Chase Bisontis, and you have a situation A&M desperately wants to avoid.

The verdict

Kyle Field will be cranked up to 11 and beyond for this one, a high-stakes primetime game more than a decade in the making. Texas has not played in a hostile environment this year — their only road trips to date have been to Michigan, Arkansas and Vanderbilt, all during sober hours — or beaten a currently ranked team. It’s not the Longhorns’ fault that Michigan, Oklahoma and Florida are all wallowing in various states of mediocrity, and it’s to their credit that they won all of those games decisively. But the trip to College Station is easily the steepest test they’ve faced outside of the only one they’ve failed to pass, against Georgia.

Regardless of where it plays, Texas’ defense is one of the dominant units in college football this season, ranking 1st or 2nd nationally in scoring defense, total defense, pass efficiency defense, yards per play allowed, points per possession allowed and a whole host of advanced metrics. A&M wants to be a smashmouth running team, but it has struggled to establish that identity following a season-ending injury to leading rusher Le’Veon Moss. Barring another flurry of takeaways a la the win over LSU, points are going to be hard to come by.
–     –     –
Texas 23  | • Texas A&M 19

South Carolina at Clemson (–2.5)

For most of the past decade, South Carolina has arrived at this game in spoiler mode against heavily-favored Clemson teams with their eyes on much bigger goals in the postseason. (It hasn’t spoiled much: The Tigers won 9 of the past 10 since the dawn of the CFP era, the lone exception coming in the last meeting in Death Valley in 2022.) For once, Carolina has some lofty goals of its own. The Gamecocks’ ongoing 5-game winning streak is their longest at any point since the Jadeveon Clowney years and has them on the cusp of Playoff relevance. They’re up to No. 15 in the CFP committee’s weekly rankings, prime bubble real estate; with a win on Saturday, the Gamecocks are poised to leap the 2 teams immediately in front of them, Alabama and Ole Miss, and replace Clemson as the “1st team out” in the at-large queue. At that point, any late-breaking chaos in the top 10 could potentially deliver a bid to South Carolina.

But first, of course, that means getting over the hump against the Tigers, and that almost certainly means bringing the heat on face-of-the-program QB Cade Klubnik. Klubnik has vastly improved in his 2nd year as a starter, especially under duress: His 82.2 PFF grade on pressured dropbacks is the best in the nation, boosted by an FBS-best 11 “big-time throws” — downfield and tight-window throws with elite timing and accuracy. South Carolina’s defensive front is a reliable source of havoc, especially edge rushers Kyle Kennard and Dylan Stewart, arguably the best pure passing-rushing tandem in the college game. Just how well acquainted they’re able to make themselves with Klubnik could be the difference between a merely good Carolina season and a genuine breakthrough.
–     –     –
• Clemson 27  | South Carolina 22

Georgia Tech at Georgia (–19.5)

For a serious national contender, Georgia seems to have a fresh new concern every week. This week, it’s the run defense, which ranks 9th in the SEC and 38th nationally — respectable enough, but a far cry from the kind of dominant effort the Bulldogs are accustomed to. They’re coming off the worst game of the Kirby Smart era against the run, in which they allowed 226 yards on 5.7 per carry to lowly UMass, most of that total coming in the competitive portion of the game in the 1st half.

As a rule, it’s probably a good idea to avoid making any sweeping assumptions based on anything that happens in a lopsided win over UMass. But Georgia Tech will take everything it can get on the ground and then some; the Yellow Jackets are only a few weeks removed from piling up 271 yards rushing in their Week 11 upset over Miami, the Hurricanes’ only loss to date. Miami’s defense is not Georgia’s, but then, with the postseason looming, Georgia’s defense could stand to look a little more like its best self, too.
–     –     –
Georgia 33  | • Georgia Tech 17

Auburn at Alabama (–11.5)

After last week’s 24-3 meltdown at Oklahoma, the idea that Alabama is still holding out hope for the Playoff race to break its way has me channeling my inner Jim Mora: Playoffs?!. You kiddin’ me? You just watched the Tide bottom out in the 11th game of the year against an unranked, 2-touchdown underdog and you’re still talking Playoffs?

I get it. It’s hard to let go. Personally, I’d been waiting for the Crimson Tide to definitively exit the CFP race to shovel dirt on the Bama dynasty — you know, what if they looked like the best version of themselves down the stretch? or something. Wouldn’t be the first time. But by the end of the night against the Sooners, it already felt like that ship had sailed. Turns out the angst that followed the Tide’s historic loss at Vanderbilt was right on time: The whiplash from their epic Week 5 win over Georgia to the Week 6 flop in Nashville revealed more than either game on its own. Against OU, they looked like the worst version of themselves, against the kind of opponent they’d spent the past 15 years beating week in, week out with machine-like efficiency, at a juncture when they could least afford it. The 21-point margin represented Alabama’s worst regular-season loss since 2003, and its worst loss vs. an unranked opponent since 1998. How many historic losses can one team take before it’s banished from the bubble?

I can’t speak for the CFP committee, but right now that’s a question I’d much prefer to skip. Depending on how the dominoes fall over the next 2 weekends, there is still a chance — around 1 in 4, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index — that one of the golden at-large tickets will wind up falling in the Crimson Tide’s lap if they regroup in dignified enough fashion against Auburn. After all, there have to be 12 teams, whether there are 12 deserving teams or not. Until further notice, though, the case that Alabama should be one of them can wait at the back of the line.
–     –     –
Alabama 29  | • Auburn 20

Tennessee (–10.5) at Vanderbilt

Tennessee is closing in on a CFP bid, which is all but assured with a win in Nashville. Can the Vols win it all? They’ve got a top-5 defense, an All-American workhorse in Dylan Sampson and no shortage of playmakers among the wideouts. The X-factor, still, is Nico Iamaleava, whose potential remains far more intriguing than his actual production. Among SEC starters, he ranks 9th in both Total QBR and overall PFF grading; 10th in EPA; and 11th in efficiency vs. Power 4 opponents. He was a nonentity in Tennessee’s Week 12 loss to Georgia — most likely the only Playoff team on the schedule when it’s all said and done — turning in a season-low 103.1 passer rating as the offense bogged down over the final 3 quarters. Getting into the field on the strength of the defense and ground game is one thing; actually advancing is going to come down to the Vols’ would-be franchise QB taking the next step.
–     –     –
• Tennessee 28  | Vanderbilt 16

Oklahoma at LSU (–5.5)

Right now, it’s hard to spin Oklahoma’s out-of-the-blue, 24-3 beatdown of Alabama as anything more than a one-off on an emotional Senior Night in Norman. Defensively, OK: The Sooners have been solid on that side of the ball over the 2nd half of the season. Offensively, though, their output against Bama was a major departure: They gashed the Crimson Tide for 257 yards rushing on 5.1 yards per carry, more than double their season averages vs. Power 4 opponents in both categories. Running for double your season average in the 11th game of the year doesn’t exactly scream sustainability, no matter who’s on the other side of the line.

Then again, the jury is out, and the ground game against Bama was the 1st glimpse of offensive functionality against a real opponent. The leading rusher, QB Jackson Arnold, has been a reasonably productive runner all year, at least when not a) fumbling, or b) getting sacked — no other SEC quarterback has taken more sacks, or had a larger chunk of his official rushing total erased as a result. Freed from the pressure to throw his team out of a deficit vs. the Tide, Arnold functioned as a workhorse instead, churning out 110 yards on 18 carries on designed runs alone. Meanwhile, the top running back, true freshman Xavier Robinson, was a revelation, running for 107 yards on 5.9 per carry in the most extensive action of his young career. Robinson, a 3-star prospect, was an afterthought in a recruiting class that also included blue-chip Taylor Tatum, but at 222 pounds he delivers more pop than any other member of the backfield rotation, and he just turned in the Sooners’ best individual performance of the season by far after replacing Tatum in the 1st quarter. (Tatum was yanked after losing a fumble, and he didn’t log another carry.) Obviously, the list of teams this century with 2 100-yard rushers against Alabama in the same game is a short one.

With nothing else at stake in Baton Rouge, Oklahoma should lean into the Arnold/Robinson dynamic on Saturday night with an eye toward rebuilding its identity as a defensively-driven, run-first outfit in 2025. If it looks like it has legs, it can inform the process of filling the vacancy at offensive coordinator. If not, well, it was worth a shot. One way or another, the Sooners need to find something to something to hang their hats on next year ASAP.
–     –     –
• LSU 26  | Oklahoma 18

Mississippi State at Ole Miss (–26.5)

No doubt State fans enjoyed watching Ole Miss’ Playoff campaign disintegrate last week at Florida, but on some level they had to be a little disappointed, too: Pretty much the only thing they’ve had to look forward to this season is the chance to derail the Rebels’ plans themselves. Minus the spoiler angle, suddenly the prospect of snapping an 11-game SEC losing streak at their rival’s expense is only like 75% as sweet.

Like Alabama, if you’re really determined to keep Ole Miss’ Playoff flame alive, a narrow path exists if enough teams immediately in front of the Rebels in the current CFP committee rankings eat it this weekend, including but not limited to Bama, Tennessee and Georgia. (Although for Georgia’s spot in the field to potentially open up, the Bulldogs would have to lose twice, this week and next; those are the odds we’re dealing with here.) Ole Miss should also be rooting for Texas over Texas A&M, eliminating the Aggies, and for South Carolina to drop Clemson — the Rebels have a stronger case that they should be in over South Carolina due to their lopsided win over the Gamecocks in early October. Eleventh-hour ACC chaos such that the loser of the conference championship game is eliminated, etc.

Other than Georgia losing twice, nothing in the preceding paragraph strikes me as particularly outlandish. A couple of those pieces could very well fall into place. But all of them falling into place? Good luck. Both FPI (6.7%) and The Athletic (9%) project Ole Miss’ chances of making the cut in the single digits, which is still pretty remarkable for an outfit whose 3 losses all came at the hands of teams that are currently unranked. If you don’t want your $10 million roster sweating out the results of a dozen other games on the last Saturday of the season, don’t lose to Kentucky.
–     –     –
Ole Miss 36  | • Mississippi State 17

Florida (–16.5) at Florida State

You knew Florida State was bad — that has been a settled fact for months — but if you’ve lost track as the losses have piled up, it’s worth taking stock of just how bad. For a team that opened the season in the top 10, the 2024 Seminoles are legitimately a failure of historic proportions. The 2-9 record is only scratching the surface of their futility.

Since their lone FBS win, a 14-9 decision over Cal back in September, the Noles have lost 6 straight vs. power opponents (including an ill-fated trip to Notre Dame) by an average margin of 24 points per game. Offensively, they rank among the bottom 6 teams in the entire FBS in scoring offense (131st), total offense (131st), rushing offense (129th), pass efficiency (129th), yards per play (130th), 1st downs (132nd), 3rd-down conversions (131st) and sacks allowed (129th). The big-ticket quarterback transfer, DJ Uiagalelei, was an instant bust, bowed out at midseason with a finger injury and hasn’t been heard from since. Meanwhile, FSU hasn’t topped 16 points vs. an FBS opponent since the season opener, a 24-21 loss to Georgia Tech in Ireland, and it hadn’t managed 300 yards of total offense in a single game prior to last week’s 41-7 win over Charleston Southern. The defense has forced a grand total of 3 takeaways in FBS play, fewest in the nation. The Seminoles haven’t plumbed the depths by being merely bad on average; they have been bad literally every time out against real competition.

If his bosses had any intention of firing coach Mike Norvell, presumably they would have done it already. Instead, the residual goodwill from last year’s 13-0 regular season combined with a $64.1 million buyout gave Norvell an enormous margin for error which he apparently has not yet exhausted. Assuming he survives to see 2025, though, once again he figures to be rebuilding from scratch. The inevitable staff purge began earlier this month, with both coordinators walking the plank following a 52-3 humiliation in South Bend. Barring a revelation against the Gators, the starting quarterback, true freshman Luke Kromenhoek, is a longshot to be promoted to franchise status next year with Norvell’s job on the line. (Kromenhoek was a highly rated prospect in his own right, but as raw freshman prospects go, he’s no DJ Lagway.) The rest of the team that takes the field on Saturday is due to be stripped to the studs as soon as the clock strikes triple-zeroes. It will not be remembered fondly.
–     –     –
• Florida 31  | Florida State 12

Arkansas at Missouri (–3.5)

It’s the campus swan song for Luther Burden III, one of the most celebrated recruits and indelible athletes in Missouri history. On paper, true, it’s hard to argue that Burden’s season has been anything but a disappointment: Although he played in every game, his production is significantly down across the board compared his breakout sophomore campaign in 2023, and he won’t be coming in for any of the postseason accolades that he looked like a shoo-in for in the preseason. (Based strictly on the stats, he’s a longshot even to make 2nd-team All-SEC, although name recognition may factor in there.) He hasn’t had a 100-yard receiving game since a Week 3 win over Boston College; went more than a month without a receiving touchdown; and was a non-factor in losses to Alabama and Texas A&M, with the vast majority of his output against the Aggies coming in garbage time of a blowout.

As anyone who has actually watched Mizzou on a regular basis can tell you, though — pro scouts very much included — any sense that Burden has not lived up to the hype says at least as much about how the Tigers’ season has unfolded as it does about him.

https://bsky.app/profile/tuckerdfranklin.bsky.social/post/3lbnkailjlc2x

For one thing, Burden simply didn’t get as many opportunities, averaging 2 fewer targets per game compared to 2023. (His catch percentage actually improved.) For another, his midseason lull coincided with multiple injuries to starting QB Brady Cook, whose downfield arm strength did not exactly inspire fear in opposing secondaries in the 1st place; in Cook’s absence, the field shrank that much more. And with the ball in his hands, Burden has been as electric as ever, forcing more missed tackles as a receiver (29) than any other FBS player, per PFF. Yet at the same time his yards-after-catch production has plummeted, from an elite 724 YAC in 2023 (3rd best nationally) to a pedestrian 373 yards in ’24. Put those pieces together, and you begin to get a portrait of just how hard he has had to work to find any sliver of daylight.
–     –     –
• Missouri 30  | Arkansas 24

Louisville (–3.5) at Kentucky

At 4-7, Kentucky has already seen quite a few streaks end this year: 3 consecutive seasons with a winning record, 4 consecutive seasons with an appearance in the AP poll, 8 consecutive trips to a bowl game. Now, the Wildcats are down to defending a 5-game winning streak in the Governor’s Cup series with a true freshman quarterback, Cutter Boley, set to make his 1st career start. If he manages to make it 6 at the helm of the league’s most anemic offense, they might have themselves a keeper.
–     –     –
• Louisville 23  | Kentucky 14

SCOREBOARD

Week 13 Record: 7–3 straight-up | 6–4 vs. spread
Season Record: 94–24 straight-up | 70–45 vs. spread

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.