Everything you need to know about the Week 3 SEC slate, all in one place.

Game of the Week: Alabama (-16.5) at Wisconsin

(All lines courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.)

The stakes

How are we feeling about this team so far, Bama fans? The opener, a 63-0 romp over Western Kentucky in Kalen DeBoer‘s debut as head coach, was a vintage blowout that matched Alabama’s largest margin of victory in any game under Nick Saban. The follow-up, a 42-16 win over South Florida, was a buzzkill that left the home crowd … let’s say, unnerved for most of the proceedings. Despite the final score, the outcome against USF was in doubt well into the fourth quarter, prior to which point the Bama offense had looked sloppy, penalty-prone and out of sync.

With Georgia on deck in the SEC opener, some reassurance is in order. A road trip to Wisconsin is not quite the stress test it used to be: The Badgers are just 13-8 in Camp Randall Stadium over the past 3 years after going 61-8 at home in the decade prior to the pandemic. (That’s not including a memorable, 16-14 upset over LSU at Lambeau Field in the 2017 opener, the beginning of the end of the Les Miles era in Baton Rouge.) The 2023 team, the first under coach Luke Fickell, was a generic outfit that went 7-6 overall, 5-4 in the Big Ten, and 1-4 vs. opponents that finished with a winning record, the lone victory in the latter column coming against 7-6 Rutgers. Wisconsin hasn’t beaten a ranked opponent (as of kickoff) since an October 2021 win over Iowa; it hasn’t beaten a ranked nonconference opponent since the 2017 Orange Bowl against Miami. These are not the old run-it-down-your-throat Badgers that made a habit of contending for Rose Bowls.

They are still a competitive Big Ten outfit with a seasoned quarterback, a humongous offensive line and a sturdy defense. Their first 2 games, statistically identical wins over Western Michigan (28-14) and South Dakota (27-13), were as nondescript as the past few seasons. If there’s any hope of this group breaking out of the rut, Saturday would be a fine time to start.

The stat: 50.8%

That’s the percentage of Wisconsin’s total offensive snaps in 2023 that went in the books as passes — the first time in school history, even narrowly, that the Badgers put the ball in the air more often than they kept it on the ground. By Wisconsin standards, that qualified as a full-on conversion to the Air Raid.

Unfortunately, a willingness to put the ball in the air isn’t the same thing as actually being good at it: The Badgers ranked 119th nationally in yards per attempt, 108th in pass efficiency, and averaged their fewest points per game (23.5) since 2004. In their 4 conference losses, they failed to top 14 points in any of them.

The initial experiment flopped, but the project forges ahead. Fickell stuck by his offensive coordinator, the well-traveled Phil Longo, and his 21st-Century insistence on balance. Instead, the key variable in ’24 is a new quarterback, Miami transfer Tyler Van Dyke, a strapping pocket type who fits the NFL mold at 6-4, 225 pounds. Through 2 games against middling competition, Van Dyke has struggled to move the needle, averaging 6.4 yards per attempt (Wisconsin averaged 6.1 ypa in 2023) and going 2-for-8 on attempts of 20+ air yards. His lone touchdown, a 50-yarder to USC transfer CJ Williams against South Dakota, came on an RPO in which Van Dyke initially tucked the ball to run, only to pull up just short of the line of scrimmage to find a wide-open Williams behind busted coverage. Thus ends the highlight reel.

Otherwise, the offense has been content in the early going to play it safe and grind away behind a couple of thickly-built transfer running backs, Chez Mellusi (Clemson) and Tawee Walker (Oklahoma), who have combined to average exactly 4.0 per carry with a long gain of 11. Woof. Presumably Longo has an ace or two up his sleeve for Saturday, but in the absence of anyone who remotely resembles a big-play threat moving the ball against Bama is going to amount to keeping Van Dyke in manageable third-down situations and coming up with as many different ways as possible to scheme an open receiver a yard past the sticks.

The big question: Is Alabama’s o-line OK?

Before they pulled away late, most of the angst in the Crimson Tide’s uninspired win over USF was reserved for a reshuffled front line, which earned the scorn in the absence of starting left tackle Kadyn Proctor. With Proctor sidelined by a shoulder injury, the starting five was a wreck, allowing 11 pressures (including 3 sacks), committing 6 holding penalties and jumping offsides 3 times.

There was blame to go around, but the goat of the group was the right tackle, redshirt freshman Wilkin Formby — a hometown product from Tuscaloosa — whose second career start went about as badly as it could go; on 36 pass-blocking snaps he allowed 4 pressures and was flagged 3 times, including a holding call that negated a long completion, posting an alarming PFF pass-blocking grade of 25.0. Formby was also flagged on a long touchdown run by Jalen Milroe that would have given the Tide some breathing room in the first half. Later on, all 3 of the late Bama touchdowns in the closing minutes came after he was replaced in the lineup by banged-up veteran Elijah Pritchett.

All signs this week are that Proctor, who returned to practice and is listed as the starting LT on the updated depth chart, is on track to play; that will allow his replacement, aspiring All-American Tyler Booker, to move back to his usual position at left guard. (Booker also struggled in his first career reps on the outside, allowing two pressures and getting flagged twice.) On the right side, Formby and Pritchett are listed as co-starters at a position where the fewer people know your name, the better. Bama fans will be watching closely for reassurance they can safely forget about that station for the rest of the year.

The key matchup: Alabama WR Ryan Williams vs. Wisconsin CB Ricardo Hallman

Remember when the notion of incoming recruits skipping their last semester of high school to enroll early was a novelty? Today it’s the norm. The next trend in accelerating career timelines, brought to you by NIL: Recruits skipping their entire senior year of high school altogether. There was a minor boomlet this year of would-be seniors graduating early enough to reclassify from the 2025 class to 2024, none of them more decorated than the 17-year-old Williams, who arrived over the summer ranked as the No. 4 player at any position in the ’24 class, per 247Sports’ composite rating.

He’s wasted no time convincing Jalen Milroe, who has targeted Williams as many times over the first 2 games (8) as any other receiver, or anyone else who has watched him take 3 of his first 6 college receptions to the house from 40+ yards out.

Torching USF and Western Kentucky is a good start; lining up across from Hallman, the most flame-resistant cornerback Williams will face all season, is an advanced assignment. Despite being snubbed for All-Big Ten honors in 2023, by any other measure Hallman was one of the top corners in the country: He tied for the FBS lead with 7 interceptions while allowing a single touchdown in coverage, per PFF, and turned in arguably his best game against Ohio State, where he shut out Marvin Harrison Jr. on 3 head-to-head targets. (Don’t take PFF’s word for it: Hallman’s sizzle reel backs that up.)

So far this year, he’s faced just 3 targets, allowing 1 catch for 10 yards. If Williams leaves grill marks on this dude, the kid is officially special.

The verdict …

The vibes in Tuscaloosa are not nearly as paranoid as this time last year, when an underwhelming win over USF felt like a crisis. At that point, Bama was coming off a sobering loss to Texas the previous week and wasn’t sure if it had a quarterback or a stable o-line. No such concerns this year: The Tide are 2-0, Milroe is entrenched, and anyway, at the end of the night the final score against the Bulls wasn’t that close. The 16.5-point spread in Madison is roughly the same as it would have been 2 weeks ago.

But then, “we’re going to be fine” is not the same as “we’re going all the way,” which — Saban or no Saban — is still where the bar is set for the nation’s most talented roster.

There are issues to clean up ahead of a Week 5 collision with Georgia (Bama and UGA are both off next week), especially along the o-line. The defense should give the offense plenty of margin for error again against a juiceless Wisconsin attack, but the less Milroe and Co. need it the better they’ll feel about their date with the Dawgs.
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• Alabama 32 | Wisconsin 13

LSU (-6.5) at South Carolina

Everybody loves a freshman who comes out of nowhere looking fully formed, and South Carolina has one in edge rusher Dylan Stewart. The gem of Carolina’s recruiting class, the 6-6, 248-pound Stewart could easily pass for an aspiring first-rounder after just 2 games. In the opener, a 23-19 win over Old Dominion, PFF credited him with 6 QB pressures, 3 sacks, a pair of forced fumbles, and the highest overall grade of any full-time FBS defender in Week 1; the latter of those forced fumbles set up the Gamecocks’ go-ahead (and eventually game-winning) touchdown inside the ODU 10-yard in the fourth quarter. In front of a much larger audience for last week’s 31-6 romp over Kentucky, he leapt off the screen, flashing big-league power …

… explosiveness off the snap with the bend and body control to turn the corner …

… and the relentless to fight through a triple-team:

Stewart’s highlights are littered with comments along the lines of “he’s going to be a problem,” but in his case he already very much is a problem, especially opposite another confirmed dude on the other side, Georgia Tech transfer Kyle Kennard.

Between those two on the edge and a couple of All-SEC-caliber vets on the interior, TJ Sanders and Tonka Hemingway, the entire defensive line is a problem — and frankly needs to be, if it’s going to continue to have any chance of offsetting what’s shaping up as a marginal-at-best Carolina offense.

That makes for an intriguing match-up opposite LSU’s offensive line, which boasts at least 1 future first-rounder, left tackle Will Campbell, and potentially another, depending on who you ask about right tackle Emery Jones Jr. The Tigers are also expected to have guard Garrett Dellinger, who returned to practice this week after sitting out their Week 2 win over McNeese State recovering from a concussion. Based on what we’ve seen so far from the Gamecocks’ front, QB Garrett Nussmeier needs all hands on deck.
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• LSU 27 | South Carolina 17

Texas A&M (-3.5) at Florida

Speaking of touted freshmen: Let the DJ Lagway era in Gainesville begin.

Yes, Billy Napier insisted this week that he’s sticking by beleaguered incumbent Graham Mertz, and that Mertz and Lagway will both play against the Aggies in some kind of undefined platoon. With all due respect to Mertz, we’ll see how long that lasts before Napier concedes to the inevitable. To the rest of the world, Mertz’s tenure as QB1 plainly passed the expiration date in the opener, a 41-17 flop against Miami that left Mertz concussed and his head coach’s future in serious doubt. Meanwhile, Lagway’s first start, a 456-yard, 3-touchdown bonanza against Samford, was a breath of fresh air. After looking thoroughly lifeless in Week 1, the Gators averaged 24.5 yards per completion with 9 receptions that gained 20+ yards.

https://twitter.com/GatorsFB/status/1832588602750202030

Yeah, against Samford. Duly noted. As live auditions against FCS tomato cans go, Lagway’s was about as good as it gets — certainly good enough to give him the benefit of the doubt moving forward, growing pains and all.

Whether his potential translates into wins against Florida’s nightmare of a schedule is less important than the fact that he points the way out of the funk. Anyway, how many games do they project to win behind the savvy veteran stylings of Mertz? Everyone sees that Lagway is the future; the sooner he becomes the present, the sooner the Gators can figure out exactly where it is they’re going.
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• Texas A&M 24 | Florida 19

Georgia (-24.5) at Kentucky

The default storyline in this one — Georgia-turned-Kentucky QB Brock Vandagriff leads an upset bid against his former team — doesn’t quite land after the Wildcats’ collapse against South Carolina, in which the once-touted Vandagriff looked less like a dark horse than a deer in the headlights. He finished 3-for-10 for 30 yards against the Gamecocks, with 3 sacks, a fumble, and a pick-6 before getting the hook at the start of the fourth quarter; his passer rating (35.2), overall PFF grade (28.8) and Total QBR (an incredible 1.2, out of a possible 100) ranked dead last nationally among Week 2 starters in all 3 categories. After that, just surviving an encounter with Georgia’s defense with QB1 status intact seems like enough of a challenge all on its own.

On that note, the Dawgs are still looking to identify an individual edge rusher who can reliably turn up the heat. The most experienced/touted member of the rotation, junior Mykel Williams, is on the shelf for the second week in a row with a sprained ankle. That leaves a couple of rank-and-file vets, Chaz Chambliss and Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, who have yet to record a QB pressure between them this season, and a couple of up-and-comers, Damon Wilson Jr. and Jalon Walker, who remain on breakout watch. After watching South Carolina take Kentucky’s battered offensive line to the woodshed, Georgia would love for Saturday to be the day the watch ends.
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Georgia 33 | • Kentucky 10

Boston College at Missouri (-16.5)

This one got a lot more interesting after Boston College whipped Florida State, 28-13, on the Labor Day edition of Monday Night Football, in the Eagles’ first (and so far only) game under new head coach Bill O’Brien. A nationally televised win over the Noles was enough to nudge BC into the AP poll, at No. 24, making this its first game as a ranked team since November 2018. The backfield combination of Treshaun Ward, Kye Robichaux and QB Thomas Castellanos was impressive in that game, racking up a combined 235 rushing yards on 5.2 per carry behind a veteran offensive line. The going against Mizzou will be considerably tougher: Through 2 games against Murray State and Buffalo, the Tigers lead the nation in total defense and have yet to allow a point.

A footnote to keep an eye on: The status of Missouri’s star wideouts Luther Burden III and Theo Wease, both of whom bowed out of last week’s win over Buffalo early due to illness and a minor injury, respectively. Coach Eli Drinkwitz described both on Monday as “probable,” telling reporters “I’m not concerned about either one of those right now.” Both seem likely to play, but you never know.
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Missouri 29 | • Boston College 17

Tulane at Oklahoma (-13.5)

The Sooners are looking to rebound offensively after a dismal outing against Houston in which they managed just 249 total yards and 16 points in a game they were favored to win by 4 touchdowns. The defense held up its end of the bargain, holding Houston to 12 points and forcing a crucial safety late in the fourth quarter; the special teams did, too, recovering a muffed punt that set up Oklahoma’s first touchdown at the UH 10-yard line. But the offense itself managed just one sustained, non-short field scoring drive, with the rest of its possessions yielding 10 punts, a missed field goal (immediately following a takeaway by the defense), and an interception.

Can Oklahoma run the ball? Most of the blame for last week’s issues fell on sophomore QB Jackson Arnold, who described his own performance as “just a bad night in general,” but he didn’t get much help from an injury-ravaged receiving corps or a ground game that finished with just 86 yards on 3.3 per carry (excluding sacks). Last year’s leading rusher, junior Gavin Sawchuk, has been especially disappointing, eking out 19 yards on 10 carries over the first 2 games in what was supposed to be a breakout year for him. Tulane struggled against the run last week in a down-to-the-wire, 34-27 loss to Kansas State, giving up 215 yards rushing on 6.5 per carry. Getting untracked on the ground would be a great way to help take some of the load off a struggling young QB.
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Oklahoma 31 | • Tulane 20

Ole Miss (-22.5) at Wake Forest

Wake Forest suffered a deflating Week 2 loss to Virginia, blowing a 13-point lead and multiple scoring opportunities in the fourth quarter of a 31-30 heartbreaker at home. The Demon Deacons outgained UVA by more than 100 total yards and finished with a +1 turnover margin, and still couldn’t get the Cavaliers’ offense off the field when it counted. Against Ole Miss, which has scored on 16 of 17 possessions manned by starting QB Jaxson Dart — 14 touchdowns, 2 field goals — just getting the Rebels off the field at all in the competitive portion of the proceedings might be an achievement.
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• Ole Miss 41 | Wake Forest 16

UT-San Antonio at Texas (-35.5)

Is the window closing on UTSA’s Jeff Traylor as an up-and-coming candidate for bigger jobs? Prior to this season Traylor boasted a 39-14 record at UTSA with a pair of Conference-USA championships to his credit in 2021-22; as late as last November, he was considered a plausible candidate to fill the vacancy at Texas A&M. But all of his FBS success to date has come with since-departed QB Frank Harris at the helm, and a 49-10 wipeout at Texas State in Week 2 was a wake-up call about what kind of year might be in store without him. That remains to be seen. As for Saturday, another short bus ride up I-35 is going to feel a lot longer on the return trip home.
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• Texas 48 | UTSA 9

New Mexico at Auburn (-28.5)

Struggling on offense? New Mexico is the defense you want to face: The 0-2 Lobos rank 134th out of 134 teams in total defense and 132nd in scoring D. A lot of that is the fallout from being on the wrong end of a historic performance by Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan in Week 1, which frankly if you’ve seen much of McMillan you can hardly blame them. But Auburn has some gifted young wideouts, too, and after last week’s 21-14 debacle against Cal the Tigers should be eager for a night of target practice. If Payton Thorne can’t drop a big number on this secondary with Cam Coleman and KeAndre Lambert-Smith at his disposal it’s time for a serious talk.
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Auburn 45 | • New Mexico 23

UAB at Arkansas (-23.5)

UAB fielded one of the nation’s worst defenses in 2023 under first-year coach Trent Dilfer (yes, that Trent Dilfer), and early returns are not encouraging for a turnaround in ’24 coming off a 32-6 waxing at the hands of UL-Monroe. Arkansas, meanwhile, is coming off a double overtime loss at Oklahoma State in a game the Razorbacks thoroughly dominated statistically yet let slip away. Bobby Petrino taking out his frustration on an inferior defense has the chance to get real ugly real fast.
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• Arkansas 51 | UAB 10

Toledo at Mississippi State (-10.5)

Mississippi State was facing a grim outlook coming into the season, and it got a little grimmer last week in a 30-23 loss at Arizona State, one of the handful of games the Bulldogs had circled as a plausible win. Toledo, the top program in the MAC, is one of the others. Jeff Lebby needs this one: After Saturday, the only remaining game State is likely to be favored to win is a Nov. 2 visit from UMass.
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• Mississippi State 37 | Toledo 24

Kent State at Tennessee (-49.5)

Kent State was very much in the running for Worst Team in America in 2023, and looks like it’s going to be again coming off a Week 2 loss to an FCS squad, St. Francis of Pennsylvania. You know it’s bad when you lose to a school that has to clarify which state it’s in.
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• Tennessee 59 | Kent State 6

Vanderbilt (-10.5) at Georgia State

Georgia State is embarking on its first season under head coach Dell McGee, who spent the previous 8 years at Georgia after joining Kirby Smart’s original staff there in 2016. McGee, who played as a cornerback at Auburn in the mid-1990s, held various titles under Smart, including assistant head coach, running game coordinator and running backs coach, all of which translate to “recruiter.” If he can throw a scare into the suddenly surging Commodores on Saturday, his first spin in the big chair will be off to a good start.
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• Vanderbilt 31 | Georgia State 16

Scoreboard

Week 2 record: 13-2 straight-up | 10-2 vs. spread (!)
Season record: 27-4 straight-up | 20-8 vs. spread