Ranking the best and worst SEC QBs by President Nixon-era stats
The “best” quarterback, especially in a game as fickle as college football, can mean many things. Some quarterbacks are better at the start of games than others, but worse toward the end of them. I should know. I live in Arkansas, follow the Hogs and have watched almost every Brandon Allen has played for the last three years.
More often than not, Allen looks All-SEC in the first halves of games but barely All-SWAC at the end of them. The Razorbacks’ performances, of course, are a team thing, but still — Allen’s almost clockwork predictability when it comes to fourth-quarter wanes made me wonder what stats best show whether quarterbacks are “clutch” or not over the course of college football season.
Numbers usually tell a truer story than our ragingly non-rational fan biases, so one way I decided to frame this search was by looking at where Allen ranks among all Power 5 quarterbacks who have played heavy minutes in terms of first-half-to-fourth-quarter QB rating performance.
He ranks highly, as you can see here.
In the SEC, he ranks second and first among quarterbacks who have started every game this year:
Name | School | Diff b/t 1st Half and 4th quarter | |
1 | Treon Harris | Florida | -114.91 |
2 | Brandon Allen | Arkansas | -68.52 |
3 | Maty Mauk | Missouri | -44.84 |
4 | Will Grier | Florida | -37.01 |
5 | Chad Kelly | Ole Miss | -36.27 |
6 | Drew Lock | Missouri | -34.79 |
7 | Sean White | Auburn | -26.34 |
8 | Kyle Allen | Texas A&M | -23.23 |
9 | Dak Prescott | Mississippi State | -21.47 |
10 | Greyson Lambert | Georgia | -15.57 |
11 | Jake Coker | Alabama | -14.77 |
12 | Johnny McCrary | Vanderbilt | -7.88 |
13 | Patrick Towles | Kentucky | -7.43 |
14 | Joshua Dobbs | Tennessee | 0.07 |
15 | Perry Orth | South Carolina | 5.72 |
16 | Jeremy Johnson | Auburn | 59.36 |
To look at the original numbers from which these disparities were calculated, check these first-half rankings:
Name | School | 1st Half QB Rating | |
1 | Treon Harris | Florida | 237.22 |
2 | Brandon Allen | Arkansas | 179.84 |
3 | Will Grier | Florida | 172.58 |
4 | Chad Kelly | Ole Miss | 170.79 |
5 | Kyle Allen | Texas A&M | 165.69 |
6 | Dak Prescott | Mississippi State | 156.42 |
7 | Sean White | Auburn | 155.56 |
8 | Greyson Lambert | Georgia | 146.47 |
9 | Jake Coker | Alabama | 133 |
10 | Drew Lock | Missouri | 132.52 |
11 | Patrick Towles | Kentucky | 130.59 |
12 | Joshua Dobbs | Tennessee | 128.48 |
13 | Maty Mauk | Missouri | 111.78 |
14 | Johnny McCrary | Vanderbilt | 111.01 |
15 | Perry Orth | South Carolina | 98.89 |
16 | Jeremy Johnson | Auburn | 76.11 |
Now glimpse at these fourth-quarter ratings:
Name | School | 4th Qter Rating | |
1 | Kyle Allen | Texas A&M | 142.46 |
2 | Will Grier | Florida | 135.57 |
3 | Jeremy Johnson | Auburn | 135.47 |
4 | Dak Prescott | Mississippi State | 134.95 |
5 | Chad Kelly | Ole Miss | 134.52 |
6 | Greyson Lambert | Georgia | 130.9 |
7 | Sean White | Auburn | 129.22 |
8 | Joshua Dobbs | Tennessee | 128.55 |
9 | Patrick Towles | Kentucky | 123.16 |
10 | Treon Harris | Florida | 122.31 |
11 | Jake Coker | Alabama | 118.23 |
12 | Brandon Allen | Arkansas | 111.32 |
13 | Perry Orth | South Carolina | 104.61 |
14 | Johnny McCrary | Vanderbilt | 103.13 |
15 | Drew Lock | Missouri | 97.73 |
16 | Maty Mauk | Missouri | 66.94 |
These ratings do provide a glimpse of at least one facet of what most fans would agree constitutes “clutch” performance, but it’s important to keep in mind the QB rating is a pretty limited stat that dates back to the 1960s and was adopted by the NFL in the early 1970s. The rating doesn’t take into account a quarterback’s rushing yards, fumbles or whether a dropped pass was the fault of a wide receiver.
Still, with all these limitations, it’s just about the best the public has for free. At the least it provides a starting point for a discussion about what “clutch” should mean.
Here are two other “clutch”-related rankings:
Name | School | 3rd Down Rating | |
1 | Treon Harris | Florida | 153.69 |
2 | Brandon Allen | Arkansas | 143.65 |
3 | Will Grier | Florida | 138.88 |
4 | Dak Prescott | Mississippi State | 138.69 |
5 | Kyle Allen | Texas A&M | 127.28 |
6 | Patrick Towles | Kentucky | 126.81 |
7 | Perry Orth | South Carolina | 121.25 |
8 | Joshua Dobbs | Tennessee | 117.3 |
9 | Maty Mauk | Missouri | 117.06 |
10 | Sean White | Auburn | 114.19 |
11 | Johnny McCrary | Vanderbilt | 107.43 |
12 | Chad Kelly | Ole Miss | 103.14 |
13 | Greyson Lambert | Georgia | 100.22 |
14 | Jake Coker | Alabama | 85.33 |
15 | Jeremy Johnson | Auburn | 70.78 |
16 | Drew Lock | Missouri | 55.34 |
Fourth down rating
Name | School | 4th Down Rating | |
1 | Will Grier | Florida | 372.64 |
2 | Perry Orth | South Carolina | 305.47 |
3 | Joshua Dobbs | Tennessee | 302.67 |
4 | Treon Harris | Florida | 250.8 |
5 | Patrick Towles | Kentucky | 199.9 |
6 | Kyle Allen | Texas A&M | 193.47 |
7 | Johnny McCrary | Vanderbilt | 156.11 |
8 | Jake Coker | Alabama | 52.57 |
9 | Dak Prescott | Mississippi State | 22.13 |
10 | Maty Mauk | Missouri | 0 |
11 | Sean White | Auburn | 0 |
12 | Greyson Lambert | Georgia | 0 |
13 | Jeremy Johnson | Auburn | 0 |
14 | Drew Lock | Missouri | 0 |
15 | Chad Kelly | Ole Miss | -12.2 |
16 | Brandon Allen | Arkansas | -66.67 |
To see where your favorite SEC quarterback ranks nationally, go here.