SEC Week 4 predictions (and bets)
We’re back with another round of predictions in anticipation of Week 4 of the SEC season.
SDS news desk editor Michael Bratton (@MichaelWBratton) and SDS Podcast co-host Chris Marler (@VerneFUNquist) are back again to share their (sometimes terrible) predictions picking SEC games and making picks against the spread.
If you missed the news, the Vanderbilt at Missouri and LSU at Florida games have both been postponed. These games are each tentatively scheduled to be played on Saturday, Dec. 12.
Chris is 8-12-1 against the spread for the season while Michael is 7-14.
Here is how the guys predict the Week 4 action to play out:
Auburn (-3) at South Carolina
Michael: Auburn is two officiating mistakes away from being 0-3 on the season. The Chad Morris offense on The Plains is about as effective as I imagined it would be — it’s horrible. Bo Nix had flashes against Kentucky but that probably had more to do with the Wildcats than anything else. Even Kevin Steele’s defense has had its issues this season. How is Auburn favored in this matchup? Mike Bobo has his unit playing some good football and now with Kevin Harris heating up, that takes pressure off a passing attack lacking many explosive playmakers. Auburn is struggling to find five offensive linemen that can work together on the field at the same time. Meanwhile, South Carolina’s defensive line, arguably the strength of the defense, continues to play better each week. That’s a matchup that heavily favors the Gamecocks on Saturday.
South Carolina 33 Auburn 20
Chris: South Carolina hasn’t beaten Auburn since 1933. Auburn comes into this game whistling through the graveyard once again after a gift of a victory from SEC refs last week. The offense has looked average at best under new OC Chad Morris, but there were some positives last week with Tank Bigsby and the run game churning out 200+ yards.
South Carolina is just a roller coaster of emotion for their fans and anyone who watches them. They beat Vandy last week but it was very close the entire first half and the Dores were missing roughly 9308338907 players. USC has the 4th best rushing defense in the SEC, and Auburn is 2-5 in their last 7 road games. Muschamp is due for some stupid win that will inevitably save his job for another few weeks or maybe even the season, and I think that comes this weekend in Williams-Brice. And, to be honest I think they might actually be the better team with all of Auburn’s injuries.
South Carolina 23 Auburn 21
Kentucky at Tennessee (-6)
Michael: I’ve been surprised by how many people consider this matchup a toss-up. Kentucky has been very disappointing this season and while winning their first game of the season against Mississippi State last week may provide some momentum for the Wildcats, they could not be facing a more difficult transition preparing for the Air Raid last week to facing Tennessee’s ground and pound offense the next weekend. Make no mistake, Tennessee was humbled last week by Georgia but the Bulldogs are likely going to do that to many teams this season. Kentucky may only have two matchup advantages in this game, UK’s offensive line against Tennessee’s defensive front, and at the punter position. That’s it. That won’t be enough to get the cover in Neyland Stadium. Plus, Jarrett Guarantano has had a ton of success against Mark Stoops’ program over the years, and I like that to continue this week, with the senior having a nice bounce-back performance.
Tennessee 35 Kentucky 17
Chris: On a scale of “my fiance saying she’s ‘fine” to “Ikea instructions in German” how confusing has Kentucky been so far this season? The Cats had 157 total yards of offense last week with 51 of that coming on 1 play, and still somehow won by 3 scores. This is a huge game for Kentucky who has been on the wrong side of multiple close losses this season, and has played the littlest of little brothers to Tennessee their entire program history.
Tennessee looked awesome in the first half last week against UGA. I couldn’t have been any more wrong about my prediction, and I loved every minute of it. They’re obviously still not “there” yet, but they are closer and closer. This game feels like the typical feel good Kentucky underdog story, as it always does against Tennessee. And, I’ve heard all week about the history of the series being dominated by the Vols as well as Pruitt’s record vs. Stoops. But, I’m done believing in what Kentucky “might” be, and am convinced that Tennessee has turned the corner enough as a program where they bounce back after losses, and win the games they’re supposed to win.
Tennessee 31 Kentucky 20
Ole Miss (-1.5) at Arkansas
Michael: All of a sudden, after exposing Alabama’s defense last weekend in Oxford, Ole Miss is the darling of the SEC. The Rebel offense has been outstanding all season, but guess who practices against a very similar scheme each week in practice? Barry Odom’s Arkansas defense. Now, that doesn’t mean the Razorbacks are going to completely shut down Matt Corral and company but I bet they perform better than expected in this matchup. Feleipe Franks is playing some of the best football of his career right now for Kendal Briles and players like Trelon Smith and De’Vion Warren have emerged in the offense. Don’t be stunned if the better offense in this game comes from the home sideline. After Ole Miss had the game of its life on offense last weekend, I anticipate a bit of a let down in this one.
Arkansas 42 Ole Miss 33
Chris: This is another game where the line may have been skewed by recency bias. It’s also lowkey one of the best matchups of the week. Ole Miss was dangerously close to pulling off the upset vs Alabama last weekend, and has one of the most explosive offenses in the country. Arkansas, should be 2-1 and has one of the most improved teams, and defenses, in the country.
Kiffin has been really good against the spread covering in 12 of his last 17 as a head coach, and Sam Pittman’s squad is 3-0 ATS this season as well. Arkansas has covered in 6 of the last 7 between these schools, and I am very worried about their 11th ranked rush defense in the conference against this Ole Miss attack. I’m also worried about how much the Hogs can score to keep pace with Matt Corral and Lane Kiffin’s offense. But, not as much as I’m worried about who from Ole Miss is even making the trip due to the recent COVID issues they’ve had in Oxford. Feleipe Franks has completed 72% of his passes with 6 TDs and 0 INTs the last 2 games. I’m taking the Hogs at home and couldn’t be less confident.
Arkansas 34 Ole Miss 33
Texas A&M (-6.5) at Mississippi State
Michael: How quickly the narrative can change in the SEC. Just a few weeks ago, Mike Leach was the toast of the SEC and Mississippi State was producing “hop on the bandwagon” hype videos while Jimbo Fisher’s program looked to be trending in the wrong direction and everyone was questioning why Texas A&M paid so much to lure the coach from FSU. Now, the Aggies are nearly a touchdown favorite to brave the cowbells of Starkville and return home with a 4-1 record. The offense is so bad at Mississippi State, Mike Leach won’t even commit to a quarterback at the moment. Until the unit proves it can handle drop 8 zone defense, they are just going to see more and more of it in the SEC. The underrated storyline for the Bulldogs is Zach Arnett’s defense. The Bulldogs are playing outstanding football right now and they’ll keep the team in this one until the end. I think Texas A&M has a slight letdown this week but holds on to win in a close one.
Texas A&M 21 Mississippi State 17
Chris: One team coming off a program defining win, and the other coming off the first offensive shutout in their head coach’s entire 19 year career. I feel like recency bias played a large part in this line being where it’s at. Mississippi State has been bad the last 2 games offensively, but defensively they’ve been good. And, despite a 24-2 loss, they did limit Kentucky to only 157 yards of total offense, and they have one of the best rush defenses in the SEC. Their biggest problem has been turnovers, as the Bulldogs have had at least 4 turnovers in every game this year including 6 last week.
My biggest question for this game is what trend changes? Will Mississippi State be able to return to Week 1 form? And/or will A&M be able to get a win on the road. The Aggies are just 2-7 on the road under Jimbo, and Kellen Mond’s numbers are drastically worse away from home. The Aggies win, but Mike Leach and the Bulldogs cover.
Texas A&M 29 Mississippi State 24
Georgia at Alabama (-6)
Michael: Even before Nick Saban tested positive, I was feeling negative about Alabama’s chances in this one. Alabama fans have been busy pointing the finger at Pete Golding for the team’s defensive issues, but at this point, these corrections are on Saban. When matched up against teams with equal talent in recent seasons, the cracks in Alabama’s foundation have a way of showing and the Bulldogs have the players to do much the same this week. The biggest looming question in this game is how Saban’s departure will affect the team. Will they lose focus or will they be galvanized? It could go either way, but regardless of the level of focus on Alabama’s sideline, Kirby Smart will have his team ready to play on Saturday. This is the game Georgia has been waiting for all year and they won’t let this one slip through their fingers. Alabama’s defensive issues catch up to them again. I’ve been calling for Georgia to win in Tuscaloosa all offseason long, so I’d feel like a loser if I backed off that prediction now.
Georgia 35 Alabama 32
Chris: This game has certainly lost its luster after the news of Nick Saban testing positive for COVID, but that shouldn’t take away from the incredible matchup we’re about to watch this Saturday in Tuscaloosa – Bama’s offense vs Georgia’s defense. This is only the 4th time in modern history that #1 team ranked in offensive efficiency will play the #1 ranked team in defensive efficiency, and the other 3 were all national title games (2005, 2016, and 2019).
Earlier this week we did a deep dive into the stats for both sides looking at 15 major statistical categories. Here’s a look at just how dominant each unit is. I was honestly blown away by Georgia’s numbers. I’ve said all offseason and this year that they have the best defense in college football since 2011 Bama which is statistically the greatest defense of all-time. But, this Georgia D is deeper and more talented overall.
I’ve also said all year that Georgia will play for a national championship THIS season after beating Bama. But, I don’t think that comes until December. Everyone is going to pick UGA with the recent Saban news, and they probably should. I want to as well, but that’s boring. Also, I keep going back to one reason why I still think the Tide can roll this weekend, and that’s Steve Sarkisian’s offense. Over the past 2 seasons, UGA has faced only one team with that much firepower – LSU. LSU beat the Dawgs 37-10 last year with a great offense and an average defense. I’ll take Bama in the first of at least two games these two teams will play this year.
Alabama 31 Georgia 27
Only I agree with is Tamu miss st. Ga Bama is toss up.
If the players are healthy Bama wins comfortably…
And what was your prediction for the Ole Miss game? Was giving up 647 yards a “comfortable” win?
Did my prediction hurt your feeling? It’s just a prediction and has no outcome on the game but since you’re asking…
What was your prediction when UGA played SC last season? Was it that UGA would lose?
I thought that was a reasonable question. Your reply back made no since. Tough to say you can comfortably beat arguably the best team in the SEC when you almost lost to a middle of the road team in the SEC.
sense**
I think Bama wins by two scores… IMO that’s comfortably..
It’s also not hard to say… Bama beat TAMU comfortably who then beat Florida so it’s not like they’ve played all week teams..
UGA was actually losing to both the Vols and Arky at half.
Weak*
You can’t give an opinion around Georgia fans.they get butthurt. But yet they struggled against Arkansas. Beat Auburn with a non existent offense and beat Tennessee..they act like they did something
SCarolina
Tennessee
Ole Miss
Texas A&M
Alabama
I was feeling pretty good about Arkansas’ chances until I read these picks.
My thoughts exactly, would feel much better being the under dog.
Agree, it seems we do the best when were not expected.
How has the game “certainly lost its luster after Saban’s COVID test”? Was Nick going to kick the game winning field goal or pass for 4 TD’s? That comment is an incredible disservice to all the players and coaches who still put forth 100% effort, even without Saban on the sideline.
Bama kicking a game winning FG? Lol.. good one!
Nice one wde0012.. We know that stung a little :) Wish we could say more, but I cant disagree on the USC prediction.
I laughed, too.
Don’t worry about it. Jawja has been looking for a win over Bama the last 2 times we played y’all. It didn’t happen then and it ain’t happening Saturday. Jawja hasn’t been relevant in 38 years. I don’t see anything changing anytime soon. Bama 45 jawja 38
Chris just guaranteed UGA beating UF and winning the east by saying this is the first UGA-UA matchup. Dude UF and UGA are still 3 weeks from playing
South Carolina
Tennessee(covers)
Ole Miss(covers)
Texas A&M(covers)
Alabama(Georgia covers)
Really looking forward to the games. Too bad about UF/LSU, but that was going to happen. The UA/UGA should be epic.
Snakes has said Friday is ” hold your breath day” because testing done on Thurs. no guarantee about any games being played.
Sankey. Not snakes
Lol – depends on the day
Ok, Coozie, time to increase my lead:
Aub vs SC: Should be a really close gm. Aub has an overall talent advantage. We get “good” Bo……Aub 27 SC 24
UK vs UT: Before the season I had UK as the 3rd best tm in the East. They got off to a ruff start and hard to see them 3rd. But they got back to running the ball. I’m back on the wagon UK 23 UT 20
Ole Miss vs Arky: Arky is much better than last yr. They’ve got the right guy at HC. If they run the ball and control the clock they can win. But Ole Miss has a little too much offense.
Ole Miss 37 Arky 30
A&M vs ST: ST got off to a Big Bang vs LSU but tms have figured out if you rush 3 and drop 8, you kill Leach’s version of the Air Raid. He simply won’t run the ball vs that coverage. Aggies rush 3 and drop 8 to shut down the Air Raid. Mond has a good gm. I don’t see ST winning another gm this yr.. A&M 34 ST 20
UGA vs Bama: Really interested in this one. UGA is one of only a couple of SEC tms who seem interested in playing Def. They’re clearly the best Def in the conf. But UGA hasn’t played anyone seen as having even a “good” offense. They’re about to play a “Great” offense. Tide will slow UGAs offense. UGA will slow Bama’s offense. But not enough. Bama 37 UGA 23
Auburn
Tenn
Ole Miss
A&M
….Najee Harris and Jalen Waddle
…will not have a touchdown in the game. There, I finished it for you.
Double duce33, yep and Bama will finish Ga. On saturday. Just like the time before that and the time before that and the time before that, and the, well you get the picture.RDT
I know it’s a bricks to apples comparison and has nothing to do with the talent level of either team this year, but neither Steele nor Morris enjoyed much success against South Carolina when they were at Clemson. I don’t think Steele ever beat the Gamecocks, and Morris may have etched one win on his belt. If Auburn wins, it’ll be the first time the two coached a win together over the Gamecocks.
On the flip side if SC wins it will be the 1st time they have beaten Auburn period. Streaks only mean so much.
Look . . . I know it’s been awhile . . . and we don’t use leather helmets anymore . . . but . . .
South Carolina legend Earl “The Ghost of Gaffney” Clary brought his legendary career to an end scoring both Gamecock touchdowns as South Carolina defeated Auburn 16-14 at Legion field on December 2, 1933.
South Carolina led by Earl Clary, and Harold Mauney rushed for 176 yards. Clary was called the “Gaffney Ghost” because of his great high school career at Gaffney high, and he was like a ghost trying to tackle him. He led the South Carolina team to their only SoCon championship.
Once again, I hate throwing props to AU, but I think yall are wrong about the South Carolina win over them…Auburn has finally figured out that Bo Nix is just an average QB…They have now started handing off the ball to Tank Bigsby…The youngster has a big-time career ahead of him…AU 31 USC 21
Auburn’s typically vaunted defense is nowhere to be found this year and South Carolina matches up on defense about par with Auburn. South Carolina’s offense, however, is much better averaging 70 more yards of offense per game. Bo Nix is less effective on the road and Auburn should be 1-2 after an obvious missed call by the SEC officials last week. I think the home team squeaks out a victory.
I’m 5-9 ATS this year (sorry, I missed picking week one. Sue me.
So my horribly inaccurate picks for this week are:
South Carolina +3 I think they win outright.
Tennessee -6 Cover time here. I think Tennessee takes it out on UK
Texas A&M -6.5 A&M might come back to earth a little after last week. Miss State is having a hard time finding Earth. A&M covers easy.
Georgia +4 difficult pick here. If Saban is not there for the game UGA will win. Saban is worth 7 points by himself.
Ole Miss -1.5 I think Ole Miss will challenge the Hog’s D in ways they haven’t been this year. The Rebs can explode run or pass. Arkansas could focus on either/or in their first three games. I’m rooting for the Hogs, but I have to pick Ole Miss. (wave RCR from TX_Hogfan)
SDS put my comment in moderation because I said d@mn and it STILL hasn’t posted so I’m posting it again censored, since apparently no one actually moderates this site.
Due to the craziness last week, I went 4-3, so I’m 16-6 on the year.
This first game is weird, but I think the Cocks looked better with more losses than Auburn has with more wins (thank the refs, Aubie)
South Carolina 24, Auburn 20. This game is the definition of a toss up, though.
Vols 31, Kentucky 21. State threw UK a win in a game they didn’t look good in, Vols just played their worst game of the season, but I still think the Vols are the better team.
Arkansas 42, Ole Miss 35. Another toss up. We’ve had a ton of toss ups this season.
State has beaten themselves twice in a row in games they should have won. The losses have been self inflicted. Will they do it three times? Until I see change, I’m gonna say: yeah probably. I expect a low scoring and ugly one. State’s defense is underrated and is playing lights out.
A&M 17, State 6.
Bama 28, Georgia 20. Bama is the team to beat until proven otherwise.
Arkansas is now 4-0 ATS. WOO PIG SOOIE!!!
South Carolina too. It’s promising to see the teams keep things close even when they don’t get the W. I hope that remains true when the heavyweights come to play.