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SEC Football

In SEC West it’s not two strikes and you’re out of the playoff picture

Christopher Walsh

By Christopher Walsh

Published:

Not every loss is equal.

That was the message the College Football Playoff Committee sent this past week, and even though it’s something that seems obvious was still an important development nonetheless.

While a lot of attention was being paid attention to which team was at No. 4 between Alabama, Oregon and TCU, more telling was Ole Miss only falling to 11th after losing back-to-back games at LSU and at home to Auburn.

On paper those are about as good as it gets when it comes to respectable defeats. Among the one-loss teams it’s still ahead of in the rankings include Baylor, Nebraska, Ohio State and Duke.

So the precedent has been set that both quality wins and quality losses will be weighed, which means this year that one loss in another conference may be worse than two in the SEC. It’s a distinction that the league has earned, especially with the West having lost just once to a non-division opponent, Arkansas to Georgia.

If you go by Jeff Sagarin’s rankings for USA Today the 10 toughest schedules have been played by: Tennessee, Auburn, Ole Miss, Florida, Iowa State, Alabama, Arkansas, LSU, West Virginia and Oklahoma.

(Yes, Alabama is still lacking a head-turning win, but note that the Crimson Tide is 4-1 against teams ranked in Sagarin’s top 30).

In comparison Oregon is 29th, Florida State is 40th, and Michigan State, widely regarded to be the Big Ten’s best team, is 58th. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 67th and Nebraska 72th – right behind Central Florida and Tulsa of the American Athletic Conference – and Wisconsin 83rd.

“I think the Big Ten is an elite league,” LSU coach Les Miles said on league’s weekly teleconference with reporters on Wednesday, and it is. But playoff spots need to be earned each and every year.

Mississippi State’s strength of schedule is 17th, but is 2-0 against top-10 teams and went undefeated during its three-week stretch of LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn – although no one quite knew yet that the Aggies were vastly overrated. Auburn, which Sagarin has at No. 1, is 3-1 against his top-10 teams. So they’ve earned their spots on the inside track.

Consequently, Ole Miss can’t be considered out of the title picture, not yet. Neither can LSU, although making the playoff would obviously more of a long shot, but its two losses are to No. 1 Mississippi State and No. 3 Auburn. If the Tigers beat No. 5 Alabama this week how far do they move up?

This is the realty of the SEC West this year, with five teams duking it out entering the final month of the regular season in perhaps the most impressive race since Nebraska, Oklahoma and Colorado finished 1-2-3 in 1971 — not just in the Big 8, but in the final Associated Press poll.

All of the top West teams except Mississippi State already have a loss, but perhaps none will finish that way. The Bulldogs have to visit Alabama and Ole Miss, while Auburn travels to rivals Georgia and Alabama.

The Crimson Tide still has the toughest venue (LSU), team (MSU) and rivalry game (Auburn) to go, plus a possible appearance in the SEC Championship Game.

“Just durability,” Alabama defensive end Jonathan Allen said is the key. “It’s going to be a physical game every week.”

Nevertheless, even though there isn’t a two-loss team in the top 10 of the current rankings the possibility of one making the playoff is growing for three reasons in particular:

1) The schedule. There are six games matchup teams in the top 20 this weekend alone.

2) History. During the BCS era a two-loss team finished the regular season in the top four exactly four times. In 2007 three of the playoff teams would have had two losses. In 2003, 2005 and 2006, one would have gotten in.

Also, this time a year ago Auburn was ranked ninth, having just moved into the top 10. Alabama, Oregon and Ohio State were all still undefeated along with Florida State. Had the playoff been in effect the semifinals would have been a rematch of Alabama-Auburn and Florida State vs. either Michigan State or two-loss Stanford.

3) Pressure. Teams get tight, injuries start to mount and the unexpected happens all the time in November. It’s also when a lot of rivalry games are played, which anything can, and often does, happen.

Both 2011 and 2012 were perfect examples of how quickly and dramatically the playoff picture can change down the stretch.

After losing at home to LSU, 9-6 in overtime, Alabama dropped to No. 3 in the 2011 BCS standings with Stanford and Boise State still undefeated and threatening to jump ahead. It then watched as the Cardinal lost to Oregon, the Broncos were edged by TCU, and No. 2 Oklahoma State was stunned by Iowa State to set up the rematch with LSU.

The following year the Crimson Tide lost to Texas A&M on Nov. 10 and dropped to fourth, needing two of the three teams ahead of it – Kansas State, Notre Dame and Oregon — to lose to receive an invitation to Miami.

Just one week later, Alabama crushed Western Carolina 49-0, and Notre Dame destroyed Wake Forest 38-0, but No. 1 Kansas State lost to Baylor 52-24, and No. 2 Oregon was upset by No. 13 Stanford, 17-14.

Anyone who thinks that the current top 10 will look even remotely the same a month from now is fooling themselves, and it only makes sense that nearly every one of the teams will have at least one more loss before the committee does its final rankings after the conference championships are played.

That’s why it’s strike three and you’re out in the SEC West this season.

Christopher Walsh

Christopher Walsh has covered Alabama football since 2004 and is the author of 19 books. In his free time, he writes about college football.

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