SEC pre-New Year's bowl win probabilities
What is your team’s win probability this bowl season? Below is a list of win probabilities for the seven SEC teams playing in bowl games before New Year’s Day. Those win probabilities are according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
(NOTE: SEC teams playing in bowl games on Jan. 1 or later will be featured at a later date.)
- Arkansas (71.9 percent): The Razorbacks were the only team from the power five conferences to boast two 1,000-yard rushers in 2014, and they’ll look to establish their downhill rushing attack against a Texas defense ranked in the bottom half of the nation against the run. The Longhorns never found an answer at quarterback, and if the Hogs defense plays as well as it did to close the regular season, their win probability is justified.
- Georgia (77.0 percent): The Dawgs will take on Louisville in the Belk Bowl without offensive coordinator Mike Bobo, and although offensive line coach Will Friend will coach in the game he could find himself distracted as he prepares for his new job on Bobo’s staff at Colorado State. Louisville ranked third in the nation against the run this season, and the Cardinals’ ability to stop Georgia’s Nick Chubb could ultimately decide this game.
- LSU (67.0 percent): The Tigers won eight games for a 15th straight season in 2014, and they were rewarded with a Music City Bowl showdown against the free-falling Notre Dame Fighting Irish. The Irish lost five of six to close the regular season, and if that negative momentum carries over into the postseason LSU could be in for a big win against a high-profile opponent once considered a national title contender.
- Mississippi State (64.8 percent): The Bulldogs will close the book on a historic 2014 season in this year’s Orange Bowl when they take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Mississippi State must find an answer for the Jackets’ triple-option offense, and must do so without defensive coordinator Geoff Collins. If MSU allows Georgia Tech to control time of possession and keep the ball out of Dak Prescott’s hands, it could be in trouble.
- Ole Miss (50.4 percent): The Rebels and the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense will square off against TCU and the nation’s No. 2 scoring offense in this year’s Peach Bowl. Not only will the Landshark defense face its toughest test this year (so will the TCU offense), but Bo Wallace must find a way to keep up with the high-scoring Horned Frogs in his final game as a collegiate. The FPI considers this showdown a toss-up, and it’s probably right about that.
- South Carolina (46.8 percent): The Gamecocks are the only SEC team in a pre-New Year’s bowl not considered a favorite entering the action. South Carolina and its struggling defense must find an answer for Miami’s Duke Johnson, who amassed the fourth-most total yards from scrimmage in the FBS this season. If Johnson has a big day, it will be tough for Carolina to pull out a victory in what has been a disappointing season in Columbia.
- Texas A&M (57.8 percent): The Aggies have yet to replace defensive coordinator Mark Snyder, who was fired at the end of the regular season, and they defense will be put to the test against a high-scoring West Virginia spread offense in the Liberty Bowl. The Mountaineers will play without starting quarterback Clint Trickett, who announced Friday he will retire from football due to concussion issues, but A&M must stay disciplined on defense to contain Kevin White and the rest of WVU’s explosive playmakers.