- Alabama (73.6 percent): The Crimson Tide is better than a touchdown favorite at home against No. 1 Mississippi State on Saturday, and the FPI is as confident in Alabama as Vegas is. Nick Saban is familiar with important late-season games, and he should have his team focused and ready to go this weekend.
- Arkansas (47.0 percent): The FPI gives the Hogs pretty good odds considering their lack of an SEC win in more than two years. Arkansas will benefit from playing at home, possibly in some snow, and it could pounce on an LSU team reeling from last week’s collapse against Alabama.
- Auburn (50.0 percent): The Tigers and Bulldogs are a toss-up as far as the FPI is concerned, which makes sense for a number of reasons. For starters, both teams recently suffered losses to underwhelming opponents. Second, both teams can still reach a New Year’s Six bowl if they avoid a third loss. Third, it’s the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry, and these teams always seem to produce classics.
- Florida (67.3 percent): The Gators are playing their best football of the season coming off back to back convincing wins over Georgia and Vanderbilt, and they have the privilege of hosting a below-500 South Carolina team this week in the Swamp. The Gamecocks have the SEC’s worst run defense, which should benefit the Florida offense on Saturday.
- Georgia (50.0 percent): The biggest question mark entering this toss-up rivalry game is how well Todd Gurley will play returning from suspension. We have no idea how effective Gurley will be, how Georgia will manage Gurley and Nick Chubb or how any of it will impact Georgia’s chances against Auburn. Hence, the FPI’s 50-50 odds.
- Kentucky (27.3 percent): The Wildcats have lost four straight games in SEC play and are in jeopardy of missing a bowl game as a result. The Cats haven’t won on the road in a very long time, and Neyland Stadium isn’t exactly friendly to its guests. Kentucky faces steep odds Saturday against Josh Dobbs and the Vols.
- LSU (53.0 percent): The Tigers may have to deal with some cold weather in Arkansas this weekend, but it might actually play to their benefit. LSU is a physical team led by its punishing defense and downhill rushing attack. As long as LSU has moved past last week’s loss, it should be able to take care of business.
- Mississippi State (26.4 perent): It’s remarkable the nation’s No. 1 team for five straight weeks has just 26 percent odds of winning according to the FPI, but unlike Saban and Alabama we don’t know how Dan Mullen and the Bulldogs will handle the moment. They won three straight games against top 10 teams earlier this year, but they were just an emerging threat at that time. Now they’re the ones with the bullseye on their backs, which makes winning much more difficult.
- Missouri (24.8 percent): The Tigers are rested after a bye last week and now must shift into high gear for their final three games of the season as they aim to clinch their second straight SEC East crown. The FPI doesn’t like Mizzou’s chances but it’s worth noting the Tigers are 3-1 in their last four games at Kyle Field, dating back to their days in the Big 12.
- South Carolina(32.7 percent): The Gamecocks are on the brink of missing a bowl game for the first time since 2007, and Saturday’s game against Florida is a must-win. The Gamecocks are liable to give up points in bunches, hence the low win probability, but if Dylan Thompson and the offense can put up huge numbers like they did before last week’s bye, it might be enough to get the job done against Florida’s methodical run-heavy offense.
- Tennessee (72.7 percent): The Vols have found their groove since Josh Dobbs took over at quarterback, and he’ll get to make his first home start of the year against a Kentucky defense that’s struggled against running quarterbacks all season. If Tennessee wins Saturday it has a great chance of reaching a bowl game at the end of the year, and Butch Jones will have his boys ready for what’s at this weekend.
- Texas A&M (75.2 percent): The Aggies are fresh off their biggest win of the year over Auburn, and Kyle Allen and company are finally playing with confidence again. They might not be as confident after Saturday’s game against Missouri and its top-flight pass rush, but the FPI seems to think A&M will handle Shane Ray and Markus Golden well enough.
Note: Ole Miss and Vanderbilt are on byes this weekend.