Some early picks on the interesting Week 1 SEC lines
When the SEC schedule came out in its final piece, I thought I’d have time to guess some Week 1 lines.
I thought wrong.
Minutes after the schedule was announced, we had our first Week 1 SEC lines, and I couldn’t even guess spreads. Having said that, some still took me by surprise.
It’s worth noting that these lines are subject to change. We still have more than a month until the SEC is set to start the season. We could have opt-outs, injuries, suspensions, etc., and all of those not-so-fun things impact spreads. In all likelihood, they will. We’ll of course have picks locked in days before the start of the 2020 season.
But in the meantime, these were my initial thoughts seeing these early Week 1 lines come out (all spreads courtesy of BetOnline):
Alabama (-21) vs. Mizzou
Pick: Alabama -21
Despite Eli Drinkwitz’s best attempt to throw Alabama off the scent with his mysterious quarterback battle, no, I don’t think the Crimson Tide will struggle against the Tigers. I was surprised to see that line so low given how much the deck has been stacked against Drinkwitz’s team this offseason.
Nick Saban is 13-0 with an average margin of victory of 29.6 points in season-openers. Granted, this is the first time he’s ever had a true road game in an opener. Go figure that it’ll come during a pandemic with a fraction of the stadium capacity.
While I think there could be some kinks to work out with the offense in the post-Tua Tagovailoa era early in this game, I wouldn’t be surprised if Alabama’s defense delivered a performance reminiscent of the 2019 opener against Duke. Dylan Moses, Christian Barmore and Co. should make life difficult on a new-look Mizzou offense that didn’t even have a spring game.
It’s hard to imagine there being a specific opt-out or injury that would talk me off Alabama -21.
Florida (-10.5) vs. Ole Miss
Pick: Florida -10.5
I’m all aboard the John Rhys Plumlee hype train. I might actually be the conductor. That Lane Kiffin offense, led by Plumlee, Elijah Moore and Jerrion Ealy, should be a fun group to watch.
But give me an experienced Florida offense to light up an Ole Miss defense that’s loaded with question marks. This seems like an offseason when having a veteran quarterback has never been more important. I’ll trust Kyle Trask, behind what should be an improved offensive line, to keep the Ole Miss defense with that bevy of Florida skill players.
This one might stay a little bit close early on, especially if Todd Grantham’s front 7 can’t find ways to get pressure on Plumlee, but Dan Mullen’s return to Oxford should be a successful one. Give me Florida by 2 touchdowns.
Georgia (-24) vs. Arkansas
Pick: Arkansas +24
Relax, Georgia fans. I still think the Dawgs win in somewhat convincing fashion. But I come back to 2 reasons the Hogs could cover what’s nearly a 4-score spread. Given all of those new pieces on Georgia’s offense, it would be understandable if there was a somewhat slow start. There’s no guarantee that Todd Monken’s group will be clicking from the jump.
On the flip side, I think Barry Odom is going to turn around the Arkansas defense. It’ll tackle much better than it did the past 3 years, and that’ll be evident early on. That’ll frustrate a Georgia team who’ll still be trying to establish its offensive identity.
Of course, one could say the same thing about Arkansas’ offense under Kendal Briles. Does Feleipe Franks make a costly mistake or 2 to let the game get out of hand? Perhaps a Franks interception will spiral things from a competitive standpoint, but a 28-7 result wouldn’t surprise me for the Sam Pittman bowl.
Kentucky vs. Auburn (-7.5)
Pick: Kentucky +7.5
So the initial line that I saw was actually Auburn -11, which stunned me, especially considering that Jordan-Hare Stadium isn’t going to be packed. I still think Kentucky getting 7.5 is too much because of how much production that top-15 defense returns. That’s the key matchup. How does an Auburn offensive line with 1 returning starter protect Bo Nix, who will be playing his first game with Chad Morris calling plays? I think Kentucky wins that battle.
It also seems fairly possible that the Kentucky ground game, which has been criminally underrated this offseason, picks up right where it left off. Sure, it’ll look different with Terry Wilson at quarterback instead of Lynn Bowden, but 4 of those 5 talented offensive line starters are back for the Cats. In the post-Marlon Davidson/Derrick Brown world, I question how Kevin Steele’s defense is going to string enough stops together against that group.
There’s a reason that line came down so quickly. The secret is out that Kentucky is no pushover.
MSU vs. LSU (-17.5)
Pick: LSU -17.5
I don’t think this one is close. I think that LSU offense, which has been hearing all offseason about how much it’s going to regress, comes out firing. Myles Brennan will look the part running Steve Ensminger’s offense, and we’ll be reminded that there’s still a ton of skill player talent in Baton Rouge.
I also worry about an MSU defense that lost a ton of production for the second year in a row. Erroll Thompson’s return helps, but I question how Zach Arnett’s new defense will get enough pressure up front to slow down LSU. That could make for a lopsided start.
And while I believe K.J. Costello throws for a whole bunch of yards this year, I’m still not entirely sure that MSU is going to be able to block better defenses and allow him to throw the way the Leach offense demands. Bo Pelini’s defense is going to rely heavily on that experienced defensive line. It seems inevitable that Derek Stingley or JaCoby Stevens takes advantage of a rushed throw or 2 and flips the field.
I’ll take an LSU blowout in Leach’s SEC debut.
Tennessee (-2.5) vs. South Carolina
Pick: Tennessee -2.5
I have no idea what Tennessee’s quarterback situation is and I’m somewhat optimistic about Will Muschamp’s defense. So why do I have the Vols covering? Didn’t they lay that opening weekend dud last year against Georgia State? Yep. And if you think avoiding the mistakes made in that embarrassing start isn’t on the mind of Jeremy Pruitt, well, I think you’re wrong.
Go figure that the Tennessee offensive line against South Carolina’s front 7 is going to feature a handful of 5-star talents. That’ll be true even if Cade Mays isn’t eligible. That’s a testament to both coaches and the work they did on the recruiting trail.
But Tennessee’s 5-star talent is a little bit more proven in the trenches. In what should be a close game, I like the odds of Eric Gray doing the majority of the heavy lifting. Pruitt’s defense should be able to contain Ryan Hilinski in his first game in Mike Bobo’s offense. The Vols turn a halftime deficit into a 1-score victory in Columbia.
Vanderbilt vs. Texas A&M (-28.5)
Pick: Texas A&M -28.5
I’ve been critical of Jimbo Fisher’s start in College Station. You know how many times the Aggies beat an SEC team by 21 points? Once. It was a 30-6 home win against a banged up South Carolina team last year. So why do I believe A&M will have its biggest SEC blowout win of the Fisher era?
It’s pretty simple. Vandy looks like a mess. It’s a 4-quarterback battle with all new quarterbacks and a new offensive coordinator. The Commodores already had 2 starting offensive linemen opt out, which isn’t great for an offense who entered spring ranked No. 122 in FBS in percentage of returning offensive production. Oh, and to make matters worse, leading tackler Dimitri Moore also opted out. Not great!
Compare that to an A&M squad who returns the most experienced quarterback in the SEC in Kellen Mond, who will lead an offense who returns 80% of its production. That offensive line should be better, and Isaiah Spiller should have running lanes that were similar to what he saw in those Group of 5/FCS matchups last year.
Is 28.5 a ton of points to give up? Sure, but this game has 42-7 written all over it.
Georgia (-24) vs. Arkansas….Pick: Arkansas +24…….
It makes sense that the Hogs would cover but I think it has more to do with the Dawgs working out the kinks on offense. That will be their focus and not the point spread.
Go Dawgs!!
I think Arkansas’s best chance to cover is Kirby going easy on them once the game is in hand. He won’t want to embarrass Pittman any more than he has to.
Hadn’t thought about that but that’s a great point
I think another thing that gets overlooked is Pittman going against the dawg defense for a few years. Yeah some of the players will be different but the scheme will be similar. He should know exactly where to attack. I’m not saying the hogs will put up 30 or anything like that, but a TD or 2 and a few field goal attempts would not surprise me at all.
That’s actually been Kirby’s M.O. since he’s been the HC in Athens.
He usually doesn’t run up the score on anybody. When the game is in hand, Kirby likes to gives the back-ups time on the field.
Unless I miss read something I believe that is exactly what the author said. I agree, along with what LSUSMC said
The author mentions a slow start. The Dawgs will be using the entire 60 minutes concentrating all things offense related.
CLASS…true ! It’s anybody’s guess what Georgia’s revamped Offense will look like. Plus a newbie-SEC Quarterback, New OC w/new schemes…It’s gonna take some games to actually know what’s what with the Dawgs’ Offense.
I agree on the Georgia pick. A few more reasons for that.
With the gauntlet awaiting Ga after the Arkansas game, meaning Auburn, UT, Bama and Kentucky all back to back, I doubt Kirby wants to show any more of the offense than is necessary to get the win.
I’m just not worried about the Auburn defense at all. It won’t be a one man wrecking crew like last year, but more talented overall from top to bottom. I’m also hearing good things about the OL from early practices. You never know until they hit the field…but they will be bigger and stronger than last years group.
Our defense will be great as always. O-line will definitely be beefier, but maybe more raw.
I seriously doubt that Tua being gone is really that much of a factor given that Mac Jones has already had to fill in for him for a few games down the stretch. Their offense will be fine, and it will be more than enough to cover the spread on Missouri.
*down the stretch for last season, of course
The “We cant be sure what the offense will look like without Tua” argument is so tired and lazy. Last I checked the offense and Mac Jones torched two top 20 defenses to end the season last year. That offense returns an elite O-line, Najee Harris and a stable of RBs, two first round WRs, and the same offensive coordinator.
The Bama offense wont miss a beat this year and will be just as good.
All of the lines look reasonable. The 800 pound gorilla in the room is COVID. Who know when/if/how much the virus impacts a team from week to week. I think we’ll see some serious line changes, even up to nearly game time. I think UT wins, but it is certainly a pick’em game.
Tennessee vs. South Carolina=Go Vols !
Why is a supposedly Alabama “AFan” so anti-Carolina? Makes little sense, but then again!
I’m starting think that a Gamecock fan banged your wife at some point.
Afan supposedly has ties to USC and has many USC friends. Maybe Afan could tell us about the intricacies of the Alabama campus and how many home games he’s attended at B.D. Stadium? Season ticket holder?
I wonder how the lines will change as the results of Covid tests are released. This morning, Vanderbilt cancelled football practice due to multiple new positive test results. It’s no telling how many days of practice will be missed, and how many players have been affected.
Sorry to hear that. This is where those new cheaper/faster test will come in handy in the near future (hopefully).
None of this will affect Vandy’s 0/10 season…so sleep well tonight LH.
Mond will be pulled after the first (scoring) drive of the second half against Vanderbilt. I will be surprised if Vandy scores.
While I think that Texas A&M will demolish Vandy, I am confident that they will score
Your confident, I will be surprised. OK, I’ll hedge a little and say no touchdowns. A couple of field goals at most if our second team offense gives up a short field with a fumble or interception.
TAMU’s success this season is squarely on Kellen’s shoulders.
I’m not a TAMU fan but if I was I would be eagerly waiting for the next crop of QB’s. I believe you guys can do better than Mond.
Bold Prediction: Vandy under 200 yards of total offense, Texas AM over 500 yards of total offense. Score 52-10. The 10 points will be when A&M puts in the 3rd string starting the 4th quarter.
Not shaping up to be a good year for Vandy with Starters: 2 OL, PK and Dimetri Moore on Defense already opting out. Undecided on new QB which means less snaps until it is decided. New OC and new playbook. Just far too many moving pieces and not enough talent.
It would have been a good year for Ark and Vandy to play each other.
BlackandGold…you’re riding a horse that can barely walk concerning Vandy.
If Vandy football was a horse it would have been put down already, especially under Derek Mason.
I can hardly wait. Here’s hoping they can play the full season.
Kentucky over Auburn?? I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again.. O’Gara absolutely despises Auburn and I’m wondering why..
It’ll be a great game. But I think we’re going to win it.
A few years ago, all the pundits thought Auburn was going to be great with Jeremy Johnson at QB. It didn’t concern them that Auburn only had about 5 returning starters that year. Seems like they held it against Auburn for not delivering, and still do, even though it was the pundits who made the mistake. They still can’t admit their mistake. They still think of that Auburn team as a disappointment. Having said that, I agree with him about this game. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kentucky wins the game outright.
Do you know how betting works?
Not exactly lol
UGA is a 24 point favorite. If you bet UGA in this game, they have to win by 25 points for you to win the bet. If UGA wins by 23 or less, you lose.
Alright sorry lol I’m an idiot
Not an idiot at all. Just learning.
Hey, I am stupid if I didn’t understand the odds and stuff. Kid or no kid.
There is a difference in ignorance and being stupid.
Are you kidding on Georgia vs Arkansas? Even though it’ll be a raw offense, they will beat Arkansas. How could they not? Auburn should be a bigger test in week 2.
They didn’t say Arky would win…
Then I’m lost because I’ve never understood odds lol so I guess I read it wrong
A couple of people here don’t understand how point spreads work.
Bama -21? Rat poison. I tell you. CNS
LSU ATS BET THE FARM!
Should be interesting first week.
LSU will win cause they have more talent but it is interesting that the some how get a pass by the author that they will not have growing pains with a new OC, new DC and a ton of talent lost to the NFL.
I would not be surprised it will be close for the first three quarters. Leach and Coach O will be tweaking a bunch of new schemes
Legit comment. Don’t be surprised if we see LSU’s balance shift somewhat back in the direcdtion of a strong running game. They have the horses for it. … just somewhat back. Not full throttle back.
Agreed. Nothing against LSU, but they’re getting the natty bump, which never made sense to me. 2019 is not 2020.
It would be so nice to detail the media’s Vol hype train right at the beginning of the season. And that first game for USC is going to be huge for Muschamp’s prospects of returning next year. I think the Cocks beat the Vols but probably struggle after that without Lloyd and elite WR play.
Derail, not detail
As an Auburn fan, I’m used to us choking and have no idea how this season (if it happens) will pan out. I think we have great receivers, a quality QB and even though we lost two great defensive players, D is generally a positive for us. I’m cautiously optimistic and like when we’re being counted out. At any rate, I find it humorous and hypocritical that LSU lost soooooo much more than we did in the offseason, but they’re not being knocked in the polls like we are. Makes sense.