Spring expectations in 2016 compared with 2015
Alabama’s latest national championship trophy hasn’t had time to gather dust, and already the focus is on 2016.
Not just in Tuscaloosa, either.
All 14 SEC teams enter spring ball with expectations, some raised from 2015, some not.
Let’s take a look:
Alabama — Same
The players change. The calendar changes. The goal never does. Alabama will enter 2016 ranked somewhere in the Top 5, somewhere behind Clemson. How many teams can do that after losing their starting quarterback, Heisman winner and conference defensive player of the year?
Arkansas — Lower
Arkansas has many of the same issues as Alabama — new quarterback, new workhorse running back, etc., — but not the same collection of five-star replacement pieces. Arkansas finished 5-3 in the SEC last season. That doesn’t seem like a logical expectation in 2016.
Auburn — Same
Internally, anyway. The Tigers aren’t thinking Outback Bowl in Tampa. They’re thinking national championship game in Tampa a week later. Outsiders have much, much lower expectations after Auburn made last preseason’s hype seem laughable a month into the season.
Florida — Higher
Remember, this is a year-to-year comparison about preseason expectations, and last preseason, the hope was just to make it through 2015. The Gators were picked to finish fifth in the East — only three East teams went to a bowl game last season. Suffice it to say the Gators will be much closer to the top in 2016, even though the offensive issues that doomed their title hopes in 2015 remain.
Georgia — Higher
Georgia was picked to win the East last preseason, so there isn’t a whole lot of room left before banging your helmet into the ceiling underneath Nick Saban’s penthouse office. But the Bulldogs didn’t trade Mark Richt for Kirby Smart to finish 10-3. Richt seemingly did that every year. No, that’s the new ground floor for a program that hasn’t won an SEC title since 2005.
Important to note: Setting higher expectations doesn’t make them realistic, which is what athletic director Greg McGarity might soon discover.
Kentucky — Higher
The Wildcats haven’t had a winning record in the SEC since 1977. They haven’t been to a bowl game since 2010. Their mantra this season is “Finish.” QB Drew Barker told Saturday Down South that everybody is sick of losing and motivated to alter our current view of Kentucky football.
LSU — Higher
LSU was picked to finish third last season and was ranked No. 14 in the preseason poll. The Tigers should be a dark horse pick to win the West in 2016 and could debut in the Top 10. All of their key pieces return, most notably Heisman contender Leonard Fournette, and they get Alabama in Death Valley. As preseason darlings go, 2016 LSU will be 2015 Auburn.
Mississippi State — Lower
Externally, at least. The Bulldogs won 19 games the past two seasons. They might do well to win that many over the next three seasons. The SEC West preys on rebuilding teams.
Missouri — Lower
The Tigers were picked to finish third in the East last season — and that was with playmaking QB Maty Mauk. There was a clear and definitive gap between the three bowl teams and the four bottom-feeders last season, whose only SEC wins came against other bottom-feeders. Missouri unexpectedly fell into that group in 2015, but the expectation is it will stay there in 2016.
Ole Miss — Higher
Last spring, Ole Miss had no idea who its starting quarterback would be, much less that Chad Kelly would respond with one of the greatest passing seasons in SEC history. The big question this preseason is can he do it again? Hugh Freeze’s program isn’t Alabama-like, but he’s replacing NFL draft picks with likely NFL draft picks. The Rebels were picked to finish fifth last season. They could be third this preseason.
South Carolina — Lower
Not lower than where the Gamecocks finished 2015, but lower than where they started, which was picked to finish fourth in the East, ahead of Florida. The Gamecocks could exceed last season’s win total (3), but they’ll certainly be among the bottom four in the preseason poll.
Tennessee — Higher
Tennessee was picked to finish second in the East last season. The Vols will be a near-unanimous pick to win the division in 2016. A Top 10 preseason ranking seems likely, too. Outback Bowl MVP Jalen Hurd certainly welcomed the challenge, saying he couldn’t wait to get back to Tampa in 2016 (technically and specifically Jan. 9, 2017, the date of the championship game).
Texas A&M — Higher
The Aggies were picked to finish sixth in the West last season. They essentially did, finishing in a fifth-place tie with Mississippi State, ahead of only Auburn. It’s difficult to envision Kevin Sumlin surviving if the Aggies don’t finish in the top 3 in 2016.
There are questions at quarterback, but the system will ensure success and both candidates have been backups, so their ego shouldn’t corrupt the locker room. At the end of the day, A&M has as many athletes as anybody in the conference, so its expectations should be to contend for a conference title.
Vanderbilt — Lower
Is that even possible, considering the Commodores were picked to finish last in the East last season? Using that expectation as a bar, Vandy overachieved in 2015, finishing ahead of Missouri and South Carolina.
The defense will be solid enough in 2016 to stay in games, but there’s little evidence at this point to suggest the offense has improved enough to actually win them.