Takeaways from the 4th Playoff poll
No, Tuesday didn’t reveal the only thing that ultimately matters. That is, the final Playoff poll.
Here’s the good news.
We now only have 1 more non-meaningful poll before the field is announced. That means we’re more than halfway finished with Tuesday night selection shows. Cheers to that.
But more important than the simple revealing is what the rankings mean and how we should look at them from a big-picture perspective. So why don’t we do that:
1. Should Ohio State really be ahead of LSU?
I don’t know how much it really matters at this juncture, but I think it’s a fun debate to dive into given how good their résumés are, especially after Ohio State’s win against Penn State moved the Buckeyes to No. 1 ahead of LSU.
Here’s a quick snapshot of what that probably looked like for the selection committee before they decided on their ranking for Tuesday:
And it’s worth noting that all of Ohio State’s wins vs. current Playoff Top 25 teams came by double digits whereas 2 of LSU’s 3 came by single digits (and Florida probably should have).
CFP selection chairman Rob Mullens said of Ohio State that “it’s probably that complete team piece. Ohio State has been very good on both sides of the ball.” In other words, LSU’s defense is holding it back from getting the style points that the Buckeyes’ top-ranked scoring defense continues to rack up.
Has Ohio State played a game on the road at a place like Alabama yet? Absolutely not. Not even winning at Michigan would be on that level.
Still, though. This discussion is going to become increasingly interesting because Ohio State obviously ends the season with Michigan and the Minnesota/Wisconsin winner. Both of them are ranked, and both of them are away from home. LSU, on the other hand, only has 1 more chance to pick up a win against a ranked foe, albeit against a battle-tested Georgia squad.
This battle for No. 1 could shape the matchup for who draws Clemson in the semifinal, which I can’t imagine anyone would want at this point. I’ll have to break down the LSU-Ohio State discussion after each remaining selection show moving forward.
2. The impact of Cupcake Week for Alabama was something … I think
In the current rankings, Cupcake Week meant nothing for Alabama.
There wasn’t much of a surprise that Alabama stayed at No. 5. Utah wasn’t going to pass Alabama for beating 4-win Arizona, and Oklahoma didn’t exactly make the case that it deserved a major bump after escaping 5-win TCU at home. And Minnesota, which still deserves more selection committee love, wasn’t going to get it for a 16-point victory against 2-win Northwestern. Of course, Oregon and Penn State losing wasn’t going to warrant a rise ahead of Alabama, either.
So yeah, it’s easy to justify keeping Alabama locked into that No. 5 spot. Nothing drastic changed in that regard.
Many will argue that it’s occurrences like that which make Cupcake Week passable. In the short term, yes. When there’s zero immediate punishment for that, that’s absolutely the case.
But consider this. What if Alabama had did what Clemson did and schedule not 1 but 2 Power 5 opponents in nonconference play? How much differently would we be talking about Alabama right now if instead of facing Western Carolina, it had Notre Dame?
Cupcake Week essentially eliminated a chance for Alabama to pick up a much-needed quality win. Even if that didn’t matter on Tuesday, it could definitely be a major factor on Selection Sunday (more on that later).
3. Why Georgia’s weekend wasn’t as underwhelming as you might’ve thought
Sure, that was a home game in which Georgia was nearly a 2-touchdown favorite. Winning by 6 points against unranked Texas A&M amidst some questionable officiating should’ve given the selection committee pause and they should’ve dropped the Dawgs, right?
Not so fast.
Here’s why Georgia’s case as a 1-loss team is as strong as ever. With the win against A&M, as well as Tennessee and Kentucky winning to clinch bowl eligibility, Georgia now has 6 wins against Power 5 teams with a winning record. That’s 2 more than the next-closest team with a Playoff path (Baylor, Clemson, LSU and Utah all have 4).
It’s strange because on the surface, one would think that the SEC East is a favorable path. But Georgia’s résumé continues to strengthen while a team like Alabama can’t find the quality wins. Teams like Florida, Notre Dame and Auburn remaining in the Playoff Top 25 certainly helps. The Dawgs are tied for the most wins (3) against teams ranked in the Playoff Top 25.
Because of those factors and the likely scenario that Georgia rolls past Georgia Tech, it’s hard to imagine a world in which Kirby Smart’s team would be anything worse than No. 4 heading into the SEC Championship.
4. Your numbers to know
As I always say here, I keep a running tally of these 3 metrics — wins vs. Power 5 teams with winning records, wins vs. teams in the current Playoff Top 25 and average margin of victory vs. Power 5 competition.
Here’s how each team with a Playoff path stacks up:
WINS VS. POWER 5 TEAMS WITH WINNING RECORDS
- Georgia: 6
- Baylor: 4
- Clemson: 4
- LSU: 4
- Utah: 4
- Oklahoma: 3
- Ohio State: 3
- Alabama: 2
- Minnesota: 2
WINS VS. TEAMS IN CURRENT PLAYOFF TOP 25
- Georgia: 3
- LSU: 3
- Ohio State: 3
- Oklahoma: 2
- Baylor: 1
- Minnesota: 1
- Alabama: 0
- Clemson: 0
- Utah: 0
AVERAGE MARGIN OF VICTORY VS. POWER 5 TEAMS
- Ohio State: +36.4
- Clemson: +33.3
- Alabama: +24.9
- Utah: +24.4
- Minnesota: +18.9
- LSU: +17.1
- Oklahoma: +16
- Georgia: +13.8
- Baylor: +7.8
Again, the Georgia résumé is still pretty darn good, despite those close wins.
What I find interesting? The Utah vs. Alabama numbers. Utah has twice as many wins against Power 5 teams with winning records, and in all likelihood, Utah is going to have just as many wins vs. current Top 25 teams as Alabama if it can win the Pac-12 Championship.
What’s also significant is the margin of victory vs. Power 5 teams. Though they have vastly different identities, Utah’s average margin of victory vs. Power 5 competition is just 0.5 less than Alabama’s. Utah has only played in 1 one-possession game since the Sept. 21 loss to 8-win USC.
Because one team would have a conference championship and one team wouldn’t, I’m not sure if this would come down to Alabama’s potential margin of victory vs. Auburn compared to Utah’s potential margin of victory vs. Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship. But those résumés are much, much closer than many people probably realize.
5. Let’s try predicting the Playoff field … again
Ok, so last week, I beefed up. I gave Oregon the kiss of death by predicting it would earn the No. 4 seed. So this week, I’m gonna take another stab at this.
Based on what we’ve seen from the selection committee, here’s what I think the top 4 will look like a week from Sunday:
- Ohio State
- LSU
- Clemson
- Oklahoma
That’s right. I think the Sooners will have a chance to earn that final spot over Utah for a couple reasons. Part of this is based on the simple résumé factor.
As it stands, Utah doesn’t have a win against a team that’s currently ranked in the Playoff Top 25. Oklahoma, of course, has the Baylor win. Oklahoma can close the season with 2 more wins against teams who are currently in the Top 25 (Oklahoma State and Baylor). That would give Oklahoma 3 wins against current Top 25 teams away from home.
In other words, Pac-12 parity is killing Utah’s résumé. The Oregon loss was another blow to it.
There’s something else that I keep coming back to. It has nothing to do with Oklahoma having the household name at quarterback with Jalen Hurts, or the fact that the Sooners made the field 3 times already.
It’s the fact that a Pac-12 title game that’s going to be played on Friday night isn’t going to have the last laugh. It’ll be the Big 12 Championship that gets the final statement. And no offense to the Pac-12 Championship, which is played at 5 p.m. local time in front of a sparse crowd, but it’s going to feel like a lot more is at stake on Saturday afternoon if Oklahoma and Baylor are facing off with 1 loss apiece.
Oklahoma, in my opinion, will have the more favorable path. Then again, that’s what I said about Oregon last week.
all this means that the committee will have to choose from Uga utah ou/baylor and bama…quite a headache to do
UGA will be the easiest team to make a choice on. If they win they are in. If they lose, no need to even include them with those other teams. they won’t and shouldn’t be in consideration. Had they won against SCar, maybe, but they have no margin of error no. It’s win, or play in a NY6 bowl.
Georgia’s resume is clearly better than Bama’s, no doubt. But Georgia has the worse loss of any playoff contender. It’s really bad.
So you’ve mentioned. Like 1000 times. Fact is they value quality wins more than the bad loss. Get over it.
Let’s not forget how Clemson made it in after losses to Pitt (2016) and again to Syracuse (2017.)
Or Ohio st when they lost to V. Tech
Oorrrr, Alabama when we didn’t win our own conference
It was bad. But in a weird way, I think that helps. Everyone knows UGA should have won the game, as opposed to them just being beat by a better team. Every big game, uga has won. Whereas the last 2 big games for Bama, they were beat by a team that was just better than they were.
This is a waste of time. If Georgia beats LSU, they’re in. If they lose, they’re out.
Give this man a twinkie
Yep they sure do. But you can’t define a team entirely off of one game. They have more games to prove they are NOT that same team that lost to SCar than they do to prove the are.
With the playoff system, all that matters if focus on finishing up the season and being placed in the top four. It doesn’t matter if it’s first, it doesn’t matter if it’s fourth. Besides, ever since 2014, the team ranked first in the final playoff rankings before the semifinals has never won it all. Just focus on finishing the season strong and getting in the final rankings.
*is
That’s right, like playoffs in any sport, just get in. But I don’t think the #3 team has ever won in the CFP era either.
The number 4 team has…
…the best defense in the country
I think what LSUorbust is saying here is that the 4 seed has won it all before. In fact the number 1 seed hasn’t won it all yet either. It’s always been the 2 or 4 seed.
I know. Saw an opportunity to finish a sentence and I took it lol
Losing to SC was bad but doesn’t seem to influence this committee.
Just gotta keep winning. Even a close loss in the SECCG will eliminate us. Go Dawgs!
Well if we had beat SC and lost to LSU in the SECCG we might have had a very slim chance of getting in the playoff. As it stands we have to win out.
Curious that the committee used Ohio State’s loss to Purdue as an excuse to keep them out last year then. Especially since Purdue went to a bowl game last year so they weren’t horrible.
That had nothing to do with the SEC. Notre Dame took OSUs spot.
It wasn’t just that they lost to Purdue. It was HOW they lost to Purdue. I don’t think they ever had the lead. It was a thorough butt whoopin
Yeah didn’t they drop 50 on OSU I can’t remember?
1. OSU got absolutely mauled by Purdue, UGA lost in O.T.
2. The rest of Ohio St’s resume didnt include the same number of quality wins against good teams.
Baylor and Minnesota would be 2 – 6 in the SEC.
Let’s play a quick game of find the quality win in OOC play.
a) Ohio St – FAU, Cinncy, and Miami of Ohio
b) Michigan – ND, Midd Tenn St, Army
c) Penn St – Idaho, Buffalo and Pitt
d) Iowa – Middle Tennessee St, Iowa St and Miami of Ohio
e) Minn – SDST, Fresno St, GA Southern
f) Wisky – Kent St, South Florida, Central Michigan
g) Illinois – Eastern Michigan (THIS WAS A LOSS), UConn and Akron
h) Indiana – Ball St, Eastern Illinois, UConn
So in the top 8 teams in the Big 10…I only see three quality wins outside of the conference (Notre Dame, Iowa St and Cincinnati). Two of the three wins were at home (exception was the Iowa St win). Tack on that Penn St was only in the game due to turnovers, I think we have one good team (Ohio State), two dangerous teams (Michigan/Penn St) and a handful of paper tigers. The bowl season will prove this out.
what about pitt? same record as the cyclones
All better wins than the 1A teams that all SEC teams play!! Using an unbiased ranking system like Massey College Football Composite Rankings, FAU(#40) , Cincy (#19) and Miami,OH(#71), compared to LSU’s Ga Southern(#75), Texas(#31), NW Lousiana (1A), Utah St(#56) and Penn States wins over Idaho(1A), Buffalo(77), Pitt(46) better than Alabama wins over Duke(#87), N. Mexico State(#126), Southern Miss(#72), and W. Carolina (1A). I’m sure you’ll find same thing as you compare records of other B10 and SEC teams.
Finally Alabama schedules a true home and home with a Power 5 team, but not til 24/25!!! Betcha Sabans gone before then…..
Probably but Saban believes he is God so who knows.
To be honest with you, especially with a 9 game league schedule, there arent going to be that many opportunities to get big quality wins, and this isnt honestly that bad relative to other conferences.
Do the same with the Big 12, ACC, and Pac 10. YOu’re going to see a far uglier picture.
The SEC definitely has the most, no need to look at it. However the bottom half of the SEC this year also has some grotesque losses.
The SEC is the best conference this year, as usual, but the Big 10 is right behind as the clear #2.
Just for kicks…lets do the same with the SEC. Yes, I believe the list will look a bit better for the SEC, but it may not be as big a difference as one might think. This only counts what has already happened..
a) LSU – at Texas, GA Southern, Utah St., NW Louisiana
b) Georgia – Notre Dame*, Murray st, arkansas st
c) Alabama – Duke, W. Carolina, Southern Miss, N Mex St.
d) Florida – Miami, Towson, Tn-Martin
e) Auburn – Oregon*, Tulane, Samford, Kent
f) Texas AM – at Clemson (L), Texas St., Lamar, UT-San Antonio
g) Tennessee – Ga St. (L!), BYU (L), UAB, Chattanooga
h) Kentucky – E. Michigan, TN Martin, Toledo
Not much better than what you listed, if at all, frankly. Big 10 actually has more wins over current top 25 teams.
Ohio State and Clemson have both beaten Alabama in games that actually matter in the playoff era (3) more times than the entire SEC combined (2 … an Iron Bowl by Auburn and this year by LSU). So, yeah. Please quit it with the SEC supremacy. It isn’t true anymore and hasn’t been in years.
CF Playoff has debunked the SEC supremacy of the BCS era, with #3 and 4’s winning CFB championships those teams would have never have qualified under the old BCS and beaten the SEC teams! ESPN knows this only after a very short history with the CFP and thats why they try like hell to get 2 SEC teams in…unfortunatly D1 college football is all about money and not about crowning a true champion out of an 8 team or 16 team field
The BCS would have been fine if they had made every team play in a regular bowl game and then after all the bowl games were played decided who would play in the national championship game. That way every team in the championship conversation would have to play and beat a quality non-con opponent in their bowl game first.
I see one example of a #4 team beating an SEC team. Ohio St. (the champion) in the first year.
There are also more examples of the SEC winning as a #3 or #4, which turns your argument completely on its head.
Let’s not forget that there has already been a cfp finals that included two sec teams. The SEC has been represented in a championship game since 2006 with the exception of the first cfp. To say that the sec isn’t supreme anymore is kind of silly.
None of this has anything to do with this year
Those were 2 national champions. Undisputed by no one.
Not a very convincing argument.
That’s ridiculous. No they wouldnt.
While i agree they would have worse records, 2-6 is absurd.
I see a lot of complete Bull Sh*t from “The Committee”. Talk about putrid losses, how about Oklahoma losing to fricking Kansas (didn’t realize they still had a football team) and their near losses to other nobodies? Baylor is more of the same Big12 detritus. Utah, good for a PAC12 team (they apparently have a defense). Put any of these teams in the SEC and they’d have multiple losses. I didn’t think UF was a top 10 team because of their lack of a running game. However, when I see the clown show they have from 6 to 10, I think UF is better than these teams. Just give us a d*mn NY6 bowl game. Our losses were to teams in the top 4. Who else would have losses playing our schedule?
When will this end? Please. Stop treating the SEC as if they are this unbeatable entity.
Alabama: lost in the first round in 2014.
Alabama: nearly lost to Clemson in 2015.
Alabama: lost to Clemson in 2016.
Georgia: nearly lost to Oklahoma in 2017 (Baker Mayfield had the flu and ran out of gas in the second half)
Alabama: lost to Clemson in 2018
Add it all up and “the SEC” hasn’t had a single playoff run where they dominated everybody. In 5 trips there has been 3 losses and 2 close shaves. Based on this, we have NO IDEA how Ohio State, Baylor, Oklahoma or Clemson would do against mighty LSU (no defense, inconsistent running game) or mighty UGA (no passing game, inconsistent running game, possibly overrated defense as the best offense they’ve played all year is you guys).
Baker Mayfield had the flu??? GTFOH with that BS
Agree Unaffiliated! If you looked at the score of the LSU/Bama game and not knowing who was playing you’d write it off as a game played by the top two Big 12 teams that are all offense and don’t play D!
And where would Ohio State or Clemson or LSU for that matter be ranked if they lost their starting QB’s?…..a lot lower than #5……but hey its Alabama. And ESPN (the marketing arm of the SEC), knows exactly whats been stated earlier in this thread, its a 4 team playoff just get in and you have a chance to win, and get 2 teams in from one conference and your odds really go up!!
Lol unaffiliated made a second account so he can agree with himself
LSU has had a consistent running game ever since the Florida game. Idk what LSU team you’ve been watching.
I’m not seeing how you’re reaching the conclusion that the entire SEC is overrated. You’re showing that Alabama is overrated, and you’d be correct, and they have been for several years now. But also, the best team from the ACC or Big 10 being better than the best team from the SEC doesn’t make the ACC or Big 10 better than the SEC. That means nothing more than their best team was better than our best team. Top to bottom the SEC is typically the strongest conference, although this year past the top 5 teams the SEC is awful.
I dont even think Alabama is really overrated.
When part of you’re argument against them is they “nearly lost” in the championship game to the clear #2 team, it’s not a very good one.
Theyve either won the title or lost to the champion in the first 5 years of the playoff. That’s pretty impressive.
Go Vols, tho
Alabama is stacked with talent all over the field. Not overrated but the loss of Tua was huge and brings them down a couple notches. They already lost to LSU at home with Tua so I don’t see a way the committee can say they can win without him. If UGA loses I would think they would give the nod to Utah but who knows. It’s going to be interesting.
you’re right, anyone who says the SEC is “unbeatable” is wrong. I agree. Would never argue that.
Is it the best conference the vast majority of years tho??
Yes, absolutely.
That’s the thing…no one is saying the SEC is unbeatable but like you pointed out it is still the best conference hands down.
Oklahoma lost to Kansas St, who has been ranked twice by the committee. They definitely aren’t a slouch.
This is good. Better to be #2 for now. They probably will move LSU back to #1 after the SECCG.
If the win the SECCG, it’s very likely they will.
All better wins than the 1A teams that all SEC teams play!! Using an unbiased ranking system like Massey College Football Composite Rankings, FAU(#40) , Cincy (#19) and Miami,OH(#71), compared to LSU’s Ga Southern(#75), Texas(#31), NW Lousiana (1A), Utah St(#56) and Penn States wins over Idaho(1A), Buffalo(77), Pitt(46) better than Alabama wins over Duke(#87), N. Mexico State(#126), Southern Miss(#72), and W. Carolina (1A). I’m sure you’ll find same thing as you compare OOC records of other B10 and SEC teams.
Finally Alabama schedules a true home and home with a Power 5 team, but not til 24/25!!! Betcha Sabans gone before then…..
And don’t get me started about D1 Bowl season…..a format so good (“neutral” sites located in south and west to crown champions)all other levels of football; NFL, D1A, DII and DIII use it to crown their champions……..not!!!! They send their lower ranked teams to places like Green Bay WI, Buffalo, NY, Boston, MA, Pittsburgh, PA to play playoff games in Dec.
Does anyone know what hell this means….anyone….Bueller?
originally a reply to Wadeless 12 hrs ago…….
It’s cold in January of course bowl games are in warm weather
Maybe they should play Minnesota dome instead nice trip I imagine lol
do you know the history of the college bowl format? It never intended to crown champions, or compare what conferences are better, but reward conference champions with an extra game in nice weather, and generate extra money!. Again a format so wrong as a playoff format that all other levels of football including the NFL do not use neutral sites for playoff games other than the championship game.
Things change. regardless of original intentions, Bowls provide most of the big out of conference matchups, and are absolutely used as gauges of conference strength…as they should, along with in season inter-conference games.
Bowl games are in warmer sites because they need to draw fans. People will travel to Florida in January, Minnesota not so much.
As far as an advantage, I dont really think its much of one. The weather is no factor, it’s not like its hot in January. And when it comes specifically to like Florida bowls, SEC fans generally get there the same way other fans do…by plane.
Cut the crap. Once LSU skulldrags UGA, Bama is in.
Lol
In this scenario LSU would be 1 and Bama would be 4 and play in the semis. Bama couldn’t beat LSU at home with Tua so why do you think they could win on a neutral field without him?
Utah and Oklahoma also would have to lose or Alabama would suffer the same fate as TCU/Baylor in 2014.
Is Divinity back playing for LSU? He’s a bad dude and if he’s back along with Delpit Fulton Lawrence etc. People are sleeping on LSU D for sure
That said is far better on D their elite on DL LB and DB
OSU is far better on D my bad
The problem with LSU is that you can say all of the names, but what matters is the results. Delpit hasn’t been a huge impact like many thought he was. Divinity is great but he’s not going to be an every down impact guy. OSU defense has looked great but they haven’t really played anyone worth writing home about aside from PSU. I think if LSu and OSu end up playing, the defenses are going to be in for a long game. Both offenses are the best each defense will play all year long. Could be quite the shootout.
OSU’s defense is legit
Yeah, the actual score of the UGA v A&M doesnt really matter. It’s actually another quality win on top of several, as the article mentions, and getting the W is rub.
Couldnt be any more cut and dry for UGA. If they were to beat LSU, there is absolutely no reasonable argument for any other 1 loss team ahead of them. Of course theyre in.
While UGA just has to win tho, I think with Utah, Oklahoma, and Alabama, its also about how they look. If those 3 end up undefeated, it’s going to be a super close call, and they’ll be looking for anyway to separate them.
I mean undefeated from here on out. all 3 of those teams have a loss already, obviously.
I hate that you cant edit here.
We got ya. And you’re right.
My personal vote would be for Utah. They deserve a chance to show how they stack up. If they flame out in the semifinal, I’m fine with that. It’s what this system was designed for. If we had a playoff back in 2007 we might be talking about the 2007 national champs… Boise State. We just don’t know. Bama had it’s chance against LSU, the system wasn’t made to give them another one. UGA has a chance against LSU, if they lose, same thing. It might be controversial, but I think if LSU loses, they should be left out. If a team that you lost to already is in the final 4, I don’t want to see your team get a second chance, let another team get that chance.
The problem is Utah lacks any top 25 win right now (true for Bama, too).
But because of that, I think its Oklahoma that may have the inside track, depending how they look in their last 2, and if they win.
They already have the road win at Baylor, and would add 2 more top 25 wins
Time for the Department of Justice to open a RICO investigation of the CFB “Committee”
In all honesty I think they need to have the committee not be made up of people with CURRENT ties to certain universities. It wouldn’t be that hard to find enough people who are knowledgeable without making decisions that could impact their own university financially.
I honestly think the committee has done a very good job in the first 5 years. I can’t really think of any of their choices that I could say were bad or wrong.
People are going to bash them no matter what they do…bc that’s what people do.
I don’t think the game this week helped LSU. You didn’t cover the spread against a consensus horrible Arkansas team and you were only ahead by 1 point after a quarter and a half. If we don’t make some dumb decisions like sliding early or going out of bounds early, it would have been close at halftime too.
Didnt help, didnt hurt.
More about Ohio St. adding a win against a top 10 team
Typical SEC fans missing the point: look at even Alabama getting in as a #4, they wouldn’t have had the chance to win a natty under the BCs formula. Not saying that the SEC isn’t good, just not as dominant as SEC fans make them out to be….. and without ESPN’s help, they’re just part of college football’s top 5 conferences!
I mean they have 3 of the top 5 teams but go off I guess…
“just not as dominant as SEC fans make them out to be”
SOME sec fans, yes. There are definitely those like you say out there. But there are also many of us who are much more realistic about it. Can’t lump everyone in the same boat.
Under the old BCS formula they are 5th.4 out of the Top 10 were SEC schools. It doesn’t matter what process you use, the SEC always comes out on top.
The thing that frustrates me in the LSU vs OSU debate is that they treat all P5 teams as if they are equal. Yes they have similar numbers of wins over P5 teams but LSU was doing that against Texas (I know they are bad but they would be a lot better in the B1G) and some quality SEC teams including Florida and Alabama. OSU has been beating up on Rutgers, Maryland, Northwestern, and Nebraska. I’m not sure LSU has played any P5 teams that bad and I’m including Vanderbilt. So obviously the margin of victory is going to be better for OSU. And OSU’s number 1 ranked defense would probably be several spots lower.
I dont think they do treat them equally at all.
LSU has the better overall schedule…but Ohio St. has been more dominant and statistically better overall.
It’s a combination of the 2 that goes in to it.
On another note, I do believe the defensive/offensive rankings do take in to account the competiton.
I don’t think so. San Diego State is ranked 6th in defense.
It must depend what rankings. I’m not sure what the playoff uses, but I tend to look at the Massey computer aggregates, and they have San Diego St. lower.
Looking at the Aztec results, I will say their defense does seem pretty good, even relative to the schedule. So i can buy them having a quality defense, but yeah, 6 would seem high.
If the commitee had put uf ahead of penn st tho…Ohio St would have no top ten wins and LSU would have two…